UpstateSCBud Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 minutes ago, timnc910 said: Looks to be about the same solution as the 18z model.. I guess we are starting to see a general consensus. .. Not sure we will see much of a correction back to the east Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk It's been said before but I'll reiterate, its way too early to be making calls like this. New Orleans wasn't even forecasted to be in the path of Katrina until 3 days out. Still lots of time for things to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 NC Piedmont hammered with some insane rain rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 9 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS has a heavy hit through the central Keys, then up into SW Florida thru 144. Convection is firing strong around the eye tonight on satellite Yes, looking very healthy! Should be a cat 5 by morning!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Check out the crazy uncle way out in GOM. Not sure where ukie ends up after hammering Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Yes, looking very healthy! Should be a cat 5 by morning!? 145 MPH was measured at the surface by recon an hour ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 6 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Check out the crazy uncle way out in GOM. Not sure where ukie ends up after hammering Cuba. UKMet sends it into Cuba then brings it north into central/eastern FL Keys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Canadian landfall Irma pensacola. GFS landfall Jose in NY City and has Irma wipe Florida off the map. Ukmet is one I want to see 7 days out after wiping out Cuba Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, griteater said: UKMet sends it into Cuba then brings it north into central/eastern FL Keys Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Euro is Cuba then up the West Coast of Florida though 144 then landfall around Everglades/Marco Island at 156. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 39 minutes ago, timnc910 said: All major global models showing the same solution. With every model run it puts the east coast clear of harms way ... All you guys can say what you want but who is going to be against the models which are closing in on 5 days out that are all showing a Florida landfall with no big effect for the east coast... Say what you want about me but you can not deny that all models are finally within the same agreement Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Keep in mind that the average error on a day 4 and 5 on the NHC cone is 200 miles. To say that the East Coast is out of the woods with no big effects is very premature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 49 minutes ago, John1122 said: Keep in mind that the average error on a day 4 and 5 on the NHC cone is 200 miles. To say that the East Coast is out of the woods with no big effects is very premature. Cantore says 225 miles. I've seen 250 miles error too. Point is, it could come up west, middle or east of/on Florida. We can't let our guards down on the east coast yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 8 minutes ago, Regan said: Cantore says 225 miles. I've seen 250 miles error too. Point is, it could come up west, middle or east of/on Florida. We can't let our guards down on the east coast yet. So says yhe 6z GFS. Hello Miami. Let me swing by on my way to devastate Charleston SC. This is catastrophic for much of the southeast......coast and interior. Not much of a way out at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taylorsweather Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 hour ago, timnc910 said: All major global models showing the same solution. With every model run it puts the east coast clear of harms way ... All you guys can say what you want but who is going to be against the models which are closing in on 5 days out that are all showing a Florida landfall with no big effect for the east coast... Say what you want about me but you can not deny that all models are finally within the same agreement Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk The 06z GFS says hello. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UpstateSCBud Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 hour ago, timnc910 said: All major global models showing the same solution. With every model run it puts the east coast clear of harms way ... All you guys can say what you want but who is going to be against the models which are closing in on 5 days out that are all showing a Florida landfall with no big effect for the east coast... Say what you want about me but you can not deny that all models are finally within the same agreement Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk The 06z GFS goes Lee Corso and says, "Not so fast." This is why you never make statements like this so far out from landfall. No one on the east coast should let their guard down yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 6z GFS shows what could happen if the atl ridge is a smidge weaker and the upper low in the NE doesn't scoot out as quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 2 hours ago, timnc910 said: All major global models showing the same solution. With every model run it puts the east coast clear of harms way ... All you guys can say what you want but who is going to be against the models which are closing in on 5 days out that are all showing a Florida landfall with no big effect for the east coast... Say what you want about me but you can not deny that all models are finally within the same agreement Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Read more and post less. This is an idiotic statement to say the least. Keep the banter in the appropriate thread before you find yourself in timeout Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WXinCanton Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Euro is a good bit west of the GFS. And not as strong. Some of these sub 900MB solutions are very hard for me to buy. 6Z GEFS is east of the OP, by a decent margin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits 1m1 minute ago An Air Force recon plane just measured 182 mph flight-level winds and 173 mph estimated surface winds in #Irma's NE eyewall. That's extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wake4est Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 192mph flight level wind gust in NW eyewall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 1 minute ago, Solak said: Levi Cowan @TropicalTidbits 1m1 minute ago An Air Force recon plane just measured 182 mph flight-level winds and 173 mph estimated surface winds in #Irma's NE eyewall. That's extreme. What's the pressure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: What's the pressure? 930mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 175mph gust(?) surface wind found.....just wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
taylorsweather Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 11 minutes ago, WXinCanton said: Euro is a good bit west of the GFS. And not as strong. Some of these sub 900MB solutions are very hard for me to buy. 6Z GEFS is east of the OP, by a decent margin. Is that a PRE event showing up on the ensembles, or simply the upslope over the piedmont and mtns? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 8:00 advisory=== CAT 5 7:45 AM AST Tue Sep 5 Location: 16.7°N 57.7°W Moving: W at 14 mph Min pressure: 929 mb Max sustained: 175 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 4 minutes ago, Solak said: 8:00 advisory=== CAT 5 7:45 AM AST Tue Sep 5 Location: 16.7°N 57.7°W Moving: W at 14 mph Min pressure: 929 mb Max sustained: 175 mph Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 33 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: 175mph gust(?) surface wind found.....just wow That will effectively relocate your house.....the crappiest part is there is ZERO chance the models will nail that turn this far out, hell we wont be sure exactly were until it actually turns....the turn just happens to be modeled to be in a area where 100 miles one way or the other has HUGE ramifications for literally millions of people. Best thing that happens now is the models have the ridging to strong and she never gets that far west and ends up east OTS otherwise someone is probably getting a Cat 5. Need this thing to start gaining some Lat fast otherwise the NE islands are toast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 12z runs are going to be big today in terms of: is there now a trend eastward (..after a day or so of westward trending). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 6z GEFS looks to be roughly in the center of EPS cone...if you are in Florida not sure what you do. One thing about the EPS for the tracks east of FL.... tracks are either re-curving off coastal NC or they are hooking back in over GA/SC. Still a miss wide right on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 EPS...shows both a stronger Tx ridge (591) and a stronger atlantic ridge. 6z GFS/GEFS was stronger with the Tx ridge too...but was a little weaker with the atlantic ridge. 591dm Tx ridge...yikes, that cut off in CA is really going to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 For what it's worth, the 6z NAM is NE of the GFS at hour 84: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.