Hurricane Irma

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

18Z GFS would be absolutely worst case for WNC mtns and foothills. With the lift around eastern and southern escarpment flooding will be widespread. 

[downeastnc]

Just now, timnc910 said:

Yea the west trend continues. . It will be interesting to see the 00z suite .

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Not really a west trend earlier runs of the GFS were west of this its been back and forth the last 3 runs....the models dont have the ability to nail the turn to within 100 miles or so at this range, also if the north trend early in the run plays out like I think it will end up then this is going to end up being a storm that rides somewhere between being right up/on the east coast of Florida then maybe as far east as Cape Hatteras.....OTS looks as unlikely as GOM at the moment but anywhere between Miami and Hatteras...

[ncskywarn]

Tonight's 0Z run is going to be intersting with the baloon & G-IV data collected incorporated into it. To see if there will be any changes to model ouptut.

[Lookout]

20 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

18Z GFS would be absolutely worst case for WNC mtns and foothills. With the lift around eastern and southern escarpment flooding will be widespread. 

High winds too. Speaking of, The 18z gfs and similar tracks are interesting to me as i wonder if they would be a funneling effect between the low center and the mountains in the cad areas of ga and south carolina. Interestingly, despite the long track over land, the gfs is bringing 60 to 70mph gusts over the 85 corridor in ne ga and the upstate. 

https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/south-carolina/gusts-1h-3h-mph/20170911-2100z.html

https://weather.us/model-charts/standard/south-carolina/gusts-1h-3h-mph/20170912-0000z.html

Near anderson for example, Sounding shows winds sustained at 40 knots, while winds are near 60 knots just off the surface with 75 knot winds at 925mb. 

 

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W
     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
  0 1000   -85                                                                 
SFC  964   224  18.4  16.7  90  1.7  17.3  40  35 294.6 296.9 291.9 330.5 12.52
  2  950   353  18.4  15.8  85  2.6  16.7  42  59 295.9 298.0 291.8 330.4 12.00
  3  900   816  15.5  14.6  94  0.9  14.9  47  77 297.4 299.6 292.0 331.3 11.67
  4  850  1300  13.7  13.4  98  0.3  13.5  54  85 300.5 302.6 292.8 334.1 11.43
  5  800  1812  13.7  13.0  96  0.6  13.3  71  90 305.7 307.9 294.7 341.4 11.88
  6  750  2357  13.0  12.4  97  0.5  12.6  86  88 310.7 313.0 296.1 347.9 12.18
  7  700  2938  11.2  10.7  97  0.5  10.9 100  84 314.9 317.2 296.9 351.2 11.66
  8  650  3555   7.7   7.1  96  0.5   7.3 107  78 317.7 319.6 296.3 348.6  9.82
  9  600  4213   4.1   3.5  96  0.5   3.7 107  72 320.8 322.4 296.0 347.2  8.25
 10  550  4917   0.6   0.1  97  0.4   0.3 106  69 324.8 326.2 296.1 347.8  7.05

 

[Regan]

Not liking anything coming straight through NC, but seeing it coming through west of RDU worries me. Central and eastern NC getting the east side of the storm. Weakened or not, really depends on the cat at landfall. Weak is relative. Lots of damage can be done with "weak".  Then, of course the rain. 

[downeastnc]

Heck GFS went from MHX to Cuba in one run lol....no telling what tonight is going to bring....I fear the slow steady march back north we North Carolinians have seen all to often.  Also what is it with Irma and ERC, is it just me or does she seem to pop one off every 6 hrs or so lol....and isnt that above what is "normal", or is there even a normal? 

[SN_Lover]

7 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Heck GFS went from MHX to Cuba in one run lol....no telling what tonight is going to bring....I fear the slow steady march back north we North Carolinians have seen all to often.  Also what is it with Irma and ERC, is it just me or does she seem to pop one off every 6 hrs or so lol....and isnt that above what is "normal", or is there even a normal? 

Winter golden rule right there! 

[buckeyefan1]

13 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Heck GFS went from MHX to Cuba in one run lol....no telling what tonight is going to bring....I fear the slow steady march back north we North Carolinians have seen all to often.  Also what is it with Irma and ERC, is it just me or does she seem to pop one off every 6 hrs or so lol....and isnt that above what is "normal", or is there even a normal? 

   I know right?! I'm sure someone has the correct answer, but I think she's had so many because she was such a tiny system to begin with. She's just been perfect without anything to stop her since day 1. That's not normal      

 

[snowlover91]

16 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Heck GFS went from MHX to Cuba in one run lol....no telling what tonight is going to bring....I fear the slow steady march back north we North Carolinians have seen all to often.  Also what is it with Irma and ERC, is it just me or does she seem to pop one off every 6 hrs or so lol....and isnt that above what is "normal", or is there even a normal? 

It’s not normal at all but a product of the marginal environment from previous days. The dry air, some mid-level shear, all those combined to cause failed EWRC cycles. Usually once a hurricane gets in a favorable environment it will finally successfully complete one and then have a more normal pattern of them. 

[downeastnc]

15 minutes ago, SN_Lover said:

Winter golden rule right there! 

Doesnt mean it will happen here, it certainly isnt based in science other than pointing out that most NC landfalls are first suppose to hit Florida, then Charleston before finally hitting ILM. Rarely is a storm modeled to come into NC more than 3 days out lol or at least thats how it feels....

It does seem like mature annular or even well organized regular canes probably only do a ERC every day or so....though she isnt there yet she is close to becoming a monster annular cane...if it wasnt for all these pesky ERC's....

[packbacker]

Biggest cluster of GEFS members riding the west coast of FL.  Hard to evacuate FL...where do you go and which side should leave.

[SN_Lover]

HWRF went from 21.5N(12z) to 22.5N(18z) at hr96.

[LithiaWx]

4 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Biggest cluster of GEFS members riding the west coast of FL.  Hard to evacuate FL...where do you go and which side should leave.

Irma could very easily wind up in the GOM.  Seems like the trend west is still in effect. 

[mackerel_sky]

5 minutes ago, packbacker said:

Biggest cluster of GEFS members riding the west coast of FL.  Hard to evacuate FL...where do you go and which side should leave.

Leave none and send em to MS and AL! FL not really that wide in comparison to this hurricane, if it takes a track like GFS, the whole state would experience hurricane force winds or greater!

[packbacker]

13 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Irma could very easily wind up in the GOM.  Seems like the trend west is still in effect. 

 

11 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Leave none and send em to MS and AL! FL not really that wide in comparison to this hurricane, if it takes a track like GFS, the whole state would experience hurricane force winds or greater!

Well the further north members in the Bahama's strike the Carolinas, the furthest south go the furthest west.  That's a day 4 decision so in another 24-36 hours we should know.

Day 5, completely surrounded by ridges, the cut off in CA is forcing the Tx ridge further east.....that cutoff has trended stronger the past few runs too.  

[Solak]

8:00PM 9/4

Reports from the Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that the maximum
sustained winds have increased to near 140 mph (220 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Irma is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson
Hurricane Wind Scale.  Additional strengthening is forecast during
the next 48 hours.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 40 miles (65 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140
miles (220 km).

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from the Hurricane
Hunter observations is 943 mb (27.85 inches).

[Lookout]

45 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

Leave none and send em to MS and AL! FL not really that wide in comparison to this hurricane, if it takes a track like GFS, the whole state would experience hurricane force winds or greater!

Man i really hope things become a lot clearer a lot sooner because right now everywhere in florida is fair game...even the panhandle if you believe the gfs ensembles. And that is maybe an understatement given the size and depth irma is being shown to be. Before harvey's devistation started i said  everything there would be looked as before harvey and after harvey...and here we are only a few weeks later and it's looking like yet another situation where it will be before irma and after irma...it's hard to believe...because  the potential here is obviously such that the map could be redrawn with large portions of south florida, at least, being absolutely leveled. Throw in the fact that as others have noted, the population of south florida has exploded since andrew....it gives me chills thinking about it. As others have pointed out a lot better than i ever could, the evacuations are going to be hell. 

It's one thing to get a cat 3 but this is something else....a cat 5 of this size and then add on the fact it's going to rake the entire state in some form or fashion before heading inland into the southeast at such a speed as to cause high winds/gusts well inland even to here....man it's really hard to wrap my head around it. 

 

 

 

[StormyClearweather]

FWIW, the 18Z HWRF looks ready to send Irma to the Gulf too.

 

 

[Lookout]

8 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

FWIW, the 18Z HWRF looks ready to send Irma to the Gulf too.

 

 

the hmon is just beyond ridiculous. 

215knots at 850mb with 160 knot surface winds. also obvious it's starting to turn

i'm sure the 860mb pressure is probably a bit over done but even if it is it speaks to the potential here at the very least. 

 

[ncskywarn]

Is there a GOES 16 loop for Irma?

[Cold Rain]

I'm starting to feel like the threat for a direct hit to the Carolina coast as a major hurricane is diminishing.  Of course, all possibilities are still on the table, but the odds of it interacting with Cuba or Florida are going up, which will obviously negatively impact the circulation.

[Thor]

Nam seems to be coming in North, yes i know its the Nam at the edge of its range. 

[senc30]

6 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I'm starting to feel like the threat for a direct hit to the Carolina coast as a major hurricane is diminishing.  Of course, all possibilities are still on the table, but the odds of it interacting with Cuba or Florida are going up, which will obviously negatively impact the circulation.

I'm not so sure. I've seen the models shift back and forth. Just feel like this thing could pull a Floyd and ride the coast up this way. Hard turn north and run the coast. Don't know that I will have a good feel for it until Wednesday. I sure hope it doesn't come this way. Been through to many here and don't want to see another one considering I'm 25 miles inland from Surf City.

[Wow]

39 minutes ago, ncskywarn said:

Is there a GOES 16 loop for Irma?

http://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=17244&y=7286&z=4&im=54&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&p[0]=16&opacity[0]=1&hidden[0]=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&s=rammb-slider

[Cold Rain]

2 minutes ago, senc30 said:

I'm not so sure. I've seen the models shift back and forth. Just feel like this thing could pull a Floyd and ride the coast up this way. Hard turn north and run the coast. Don't know that I will have a good feel for it until Wednesday. I sure hope it doesn't come this way. Been through to many here and don't want to see another one considering I'm 25 miles inland from Surf City.

Oh I'm not sure either.  Just commenting on the trends.  Unless we see a step back pretty soon, the odds of interaction with land south of here are going to continue to rise.  I'm supposed to be at Carolina Beach, son I don't want to see a direct hit here either!

[buckeyefan1]

9 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I'm starting to feel like the threat for a direct hit to the Carolina coast as a major hurricane is diminishing.  Of course, all possibilities are still on the table, but the odds of it interacting with Cuba or Florida are going up, which will obviously negatively impact the circulation.

Too much uncertainty past day 4/5 for anyone to feel like a threat is diminishing. A 50ish mile early turn towards the north could mean all the difference between a landfall in FL or a landfall in Wilmington. 

Irma will definitely be testing my patience this week  

[senc30]

2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Oh I'm not sure either.  Just commenting on the trends.  Unless we see a step back pretty soon, the odds of interaction with land south of here are going to continue to rise.  I'm supposed to be at Carolina Beach, son I don't want to see a direct hit here either!

My issue is always the same. The track showed a south movement much more then it actually did. Models have shifted east a bit today and I just have a weird feeling this could be another floyd. Lord knows I don't want another Fran for sure. Going across that bridge 3 days after Fran still brings chills to me. Yuck!

[buckeyefan1]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

This did not give me a warm and fuzzy feeling  

[Cold Rain]

6 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Too much uncertainty past day 4/5 for anyone to feel like a threat is diminishing. A 50ish mile early turn towards the north could mean all the difference between a landfall in FL or a landfall in Wilmington. 

Irma will definitely be testing my patience this week  

Yep two or three more fun days of model watching!

[Wow]

22 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

I'm starting to feel like the threat for a direct hit to the Carolina coast as a major hurricane is diminishing.  Of course, all possibilities are still on the table, but the odds of it interacting with Cuba or Florida are going up, which will obviously negatively impact the circulation.

Based on the way this is approaching the US, all it takes is a turn north just a little bit earlier than what the models are printing out now and it's SC/NC instead of FL.