Hurricane Irma

[mackerel_sky]

35 minutes ago, StormyClearweather said:

Everyone knows how to read AFD's, but this piece from GSP's seems especially important today:

 

They also said 3 days ago or so, it was likely going out to sea and therefore, would little impact on our sensible weather.

[JoshM]

43 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

Euro shows close to or at hurricane gusts over most of the immediate CLT metro. 

Hugo 2.0, looks like I picked the wrong week to quit smoking.

[LithiaWx]

That south Florida LF tho.  That would be awful. 

 

 

[Solak]

Allan Huffman‏ @RaleighWx 4m4 minutes ago

 

 

12z EPS members #Irma

[LithiaWx]

3 minutes ago, Solak said:

Allan Huffman‏ @RaleighWx 4m4 minutes ago

 

 

12z EPS members #Irma

Nice,  I'm pulling for some of those GOM solutions bringing a monster in from the south into Atlanta. 

[Brick Tamland]

So now it looks like it either hits FL and then SC or NC or both, or miss Florida and hit SC or NC or both. Seems like SC and NC lose either way.

[LithiaWx]

6 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

So now it looks like it either hits FL and then SC or NC or both, or miss Florida and hit SC or NC or both. Seems like SC and NC lose either way.

Euro and gfs both show a strong storm off the sc/ga coast.  That's still the most likely outcome imo.  But those odds will change with more model data. 

[SN_Lover]

They are throwing everything at this for the 0z runs. Reminds me of what happened before Sandy. 

[yotaman]

16 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

So now it looks like it either hits FL and then SC or NC or both, or miss Florida and hit SC or NC or both. Seems like SC and NC lose either way.

Well if it hits Fla first then it should weaken it considerable than if it doesn't.

[timnc910]

I think they key is watching the hurricane hunters mission and compare the current movement and placement compared to the modeled forecast.. looks like the two main players to watch now is the trough in the northeast and the sw that is digging towards the gulf as Irma approaches florida.. that sw is gonna have to dig deep to pull the storm inland as the 12z models show.. Time will tell.. the days are counting down before we know we will be within 5 days

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[shaggy]

She seems to be cruising along just below 17N. She hasn't made any real moves to the south of due west today and she looks to miss the next plot to the north by 30 miles or so

[jburns]

16 minutes ago, yotaman said:

Well if it hits Fla first then it should weaken it considerable than if it doesn't.

Some.  It will, of course, depend on how long it is over land in FL.  Obviously, there is no elevation to worry about so down sloping wouldn't force feed dry air into her and the basic structure will remain in tact. I wouldn't relax up this way. There's a lot of fuel in the Gulf Stream on its way north after a brush with FL.  She would have everything she needs to go into a period of rapid intensification and then slam someone in the Carolinas.

[BullCityWx]

1 minute ago, jburns said:

Some.  It will, of course, depend on how long it is over land in FL.  Obviously, there is no elevation to worry about so down sloping wouldn't force feed dry air into her and the basic structure will remain in tact. I wouldn't relax up this way. There's a lot of fuel in the Gulf Stream on its way north after a brush with FL.  She would have everything she needs to go into a period of rapid intensification and then slam someone in the Carolinas.

 As I recall, Hugo did the same thing over the Gulf Stream.

[Brick Tamland]

1 minute ago, jburns said:

Some.  It will, of course, depend on how long it is over land in FL.  Obviously, there is no elevation to worry about so down sloping wouldn't force feed dry air into her and the basic structure will remain in tact. I wouldn't relax up this way. There's a lot of fuel in the Gulf Stream on its way north after a brush with FL.  She would have everything she needs to go into a period of rapid intensification and then slam someone in the Carolinas.

That's what  I am worried about if it hits Florida and turns north. It could intensify again when it gets back in open water before hitting SC and NC.

[downeastnc]

46 minutes ago, Solak said:

Allan Huffman‏ @RaleighWx 4m4 minutes ago

 

 

12z EPS members #Irma

So even more spread out, thats going the wrong way....hopefully the new data will help some, but in reality it all comes down to the turn north and then how much left or right drift there is coming north....both of those things at best will be poorly modeled as turns for canes usually are...the models dont have the skill to give us 50-100 mile accuracy 5 days out on a north turn probably not even 72 hrs out can we take the turn point as locked in. 

[Solak]

Irma remains an impressive hurricane in satellite imagery.  The
eye has become a little smaller and cloud filled this afternoon,
perhaps the result of an ongoing eyewall replacement.  An Air Force
reserve reconnaissance aircraft reported a double-eyewall structure
and double wind maximums during the first pass through Irma but
noted that the eyewalls had consolidated somewhat during their
second pass through the center.  The aircraft measured
flight-level wind of 121 kt in the northeast eyewall and SFMR winds
of 113 kt. Based on these reports, the peak intensity has been
increased to 115 kt, making Irma a category four hurricane.

[Brick Tamland]

That's going to be one heck of a right turn to not make it into the Gulf based on the NHC track.

[jburns]

4 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

That's going to be one heck of a right turn to not make it into the Gulf based on the NHC track.

About 83º or so.

[Brick Tamland]

Like it hits a wall and goes almost straight north if the models are right.

[ncskywarn]

GFS is running.

[timnc910]

That's going to be one heck of a right turn to not make it into the Gulf based on the NHC track.

I believe we will see more of the turn from the nhc in the next couple of day.. I think they are hesitate to draw it out being this far our not know when or if the turn happens..

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[DopplerWx]

i have a bad feeling we will see models come north tonight and have the carolinas in the crosshairs. still promising we are 6 days out and a lot can and will change.

[Ser Pounce]

3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

Like it hits a wall and goes almost straight north if the models are right.

True, but not unprecedented. Matthew did the same thing north of Colombia last year and was cat 4 at the time.

[timnc910]

At hr 48 18 z looks to be north of the 12z run

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[jburns]

5 minutes ago, timnc910 said:

At hr 48 18 z looks to be north of the 12z run

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Expected.  Yesterday was a large move south. There's almost always a bit correction back after a sudden large move.  Of course, if this happens it will keep Irma off of the Islands and make her a more dangerous storm approaching the Bahamas and Florida.

[Wow]

The trough is still trending faster out

[timnc910]

Hour 138 it's making the turn at 894 mb.. It's shocking the power of this storm alone

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[downeastnc]

Somehow the 18Z GFS managed to be further north and still go farther west than the 12Z....pretty much direct hit to Miami then up over Florida..... 

[yotaman]

3 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Somehow the 18Z GFS managed to be further north and still go farther west than the 12Z....pretty much direct hit to Miami then up over Florida..... 

I noticed that. Irma goes right up the spine of Fla this run.

[timnc910]

Somehow the 18Z GFS managed to be further north and still go farther west than the 12Z....pretty much direct hit to Miami then up over Florida..... 

Yea the west trend continues. . It will be interesting to see the 00z suite .

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