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Hurricane Irma


downeastnc

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96 Euro is NE of 00Z run by 50-60 miles, the setup is a mess  it has a low over the Bay of Campeche,  Hurricane Jose behind it, the trough to the north and ridges over TX and the ATL I dont see how this thing does not go hard north but i guess we will see....I mean its the only place for it to go..

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8 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

96 Euro is NE of 00Z run by 50-60 miles, the setup is a mess  it has a low over the Bay of Campeche,  Hurricane Jose behind it, the trough to the north and ridges over TX and the ATL I dont see how this thing does not go hard north but i guess we will see....I mean its the only place for it to go..

Still booking it to the west at 120.....it wants to run it west as far as possible before any turns happen.

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4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

946MB coming onshore near Edisto at 186.

overall that is remarkable agreement between the euro and gfs at such a long range as far as landfall goes there. but the direction afterwards is up in the air. the euro doesn't have any hint of the trough that the gfs sees moving into the plains/great lakes...which causes irma to head quickly nne. 

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Just now, Lookout said:

overall that is remarkable agreement between the euro and gfs at such a long range as far as landfall goes there. but the direction afterwards is up in the air. the euro doesn't have any hint of the trough that the gfs sees moving into the plains/great lakes...which causes irma to head quickly nne. 

That is my biggest concern. We have much less of a threat this far inland if it isnt picked up. 

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Everyone knows how to read AFD's, but this piece from GSP's seems especially important today:

Quote

This potential Fujiwhara interaction is the reason why Irma has 
displayed a westward jog inland thus far, but if the intensity and 
the position of the upper low shift, major track shifts could 
result. I will mention that the westward jog displayed on previous 
model runs would be extremely climatologically unusual for a 
landfalling southeast tropical cyclone. 

 

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7 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

The extra balloons data will be in by 00Z tonight, this should help with trough placement and strength, and the HH and G4 missions will also help, so by the 12Z runs Wed we should be getting some hard agreement on landfall location on the US I hope....

Maybe even a little sooner G-IV is out there now flying around Irma.

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