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Hurricane Irma


downeastnc

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3 minutes ago, LithiaWx said:

Agreed but I do buy those pressures down there now,  that far south, a lot more than when those were showing up at the sc/nc border. 

I dunno, hard to take it seriously when it's been doing it to all the hurricanes/typhoons. If it does legit get that low, god help whoever is in their way. 

fwiw, the canadian is a touch further south than the 0z run but looks similar to the gfs  through 120. 

gfs...damn buckeye. 

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5 minutes ago, Wow said:

pressure forecasts for hurricanes a week out is like the rain/snow line.  At this pt, just look at the overall pattern and the track possibilities.

the canadian breaks off a piece of the us eastern trough/closes off an upper level low which results in it only shifting east about 800 or so miles lol. 

North ga to cap hatteras in one run. gotta love it. 

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7 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Be interested to see if euro op moves toward it's 12z ens mean. And Allan posted ukmet ens this a.m. and showed theyve always been futherest south. Fact they initialize a hair tick to far south but where the first to have Irma in south Bahamas Cuba, Hospanola neighborhood.

I've been of the belief for some time a lot depends on it's exact movement over the course of the next few days but this mornings 12z runs of the gfs/canadian are different with progression of the eastern us trough.  The gfs and canadian start off faster lifting it out but by around day 4 and it slows down. Both models end up forming an upper low, with the canadian much faster/further south/west with it.   

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4 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

That is a scary, scary look. 

This one has some real potential to produce some damaging winds much further inland like hugo that's for sure...especially if there isn't much land interaction with  cuba then florida. I'd be worried if i was really anywhere in the carolinas. 

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This is probably just one of several east corrections....it will probably be back at hitting the Delmarva by tomorrow night...the GFS went from a LF almost over MHX to hitting Cuba in 1 run.....its always a red flag for me when these sudden shifts happen and the 4-7 day period always seems to be the most volatile with sudden jumps etc....about the only thing we can be fairly sure of is the storm will be approaching the SE Bahamas in 4 days, there is pretty strong agreement on the models and their ens for that....after that though.....ugh. 

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9 minutes ago, packbacker said:

CMC actually hits FL, goes back in the atlantic, phases with the upper low in the NE, that never gets out of the way, and slings around NC into Va....with Jose strapped to his back.

 

gem_mslp_wind_us_32.png

 

Meanwhile, the 12z UK has it even further south...actually moving it SOUTH of cuba before turning northwest. However, it also has an upper low over the northeast so it's likely to take a hard north turn too. 

GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

 

http://img.meteocentre.com/models/ukmet_amer_12/GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

 

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7 minutes ago, Lookout said:

Meanwhile, the 12z UK has it even further south...actually moving it SOUTH of cuba before turning northwest. However, it also has an upper low over the northeast so it's likely to take a hard north turn too. 

GZ_D5_PN_120_0000.gif

 

 

GZ_D5_PN_144_0000.gif

 

 

People were tweeting about that this morning after last nights run...it looks like UK and it's ensembles has been to far south for a few runs now.  Someone posted this site which has it's ensembles against the actual path.

 

https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

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2 minutes ago, packbacker said:

People were tweeting about that this morning after last nights run...it looks like UK and it's ensembles has been to far south for a few runs now.  Someone posted this site which has it's ensembles against the actual path.

 

https://ruc.noaa.gov/tracks/

Not surprised to see that... seems a bit of a stretch for it to go that far south. cool link...thanks.  

btw, sorry hailstorm..didn't see your post. 

 

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2 hours ago, TPAwx said:

Hope it's a whiff for you.  I'm about 15' under water with a cat 3 in the bad flank, up to 33' with a cat 5.  I'll pass on that.

Same to you as well as all of the se crew :)  Ain't nobody got time for that :lol: 

2 hours ago, Lookout said:

That sucks....on two levels. One is the obvious but two....you would have to be close to where my inner weenie has wished a  major cane moving northwest to make landfall since i was a kid.  Now i'd feel guilty as hell if it did....arggh....thanks a lot :gun_bandana::angry:;) 

a bit off topic but Although i have never been a big fan of the beech one of the bigger reasons why i'd never want to live near the coast is having to worry every year if this is the year my house gets destroyed. Just the thought of all the trouble involved with preparations, evacuations, and especially having to deal with major damage/total loss of my home is enough to make me feel sick to my stomach.  

at any rate, pretty amazing to see the latest nhc forecast showing irma on the coast of cuba considering where we were just a few days ago. If you are in florida, one has to hope that there is enough landfall there to weaken it. Hate to think what the result would be if it stays just off the coast. So many factors to consider with irma...more than i can recall with any in recent times..and now there is another one..land interaction with cuba..if, when, and how long.  I don't envy the nhc, the local nws or mets with this one. Hopefully the atmospheric sampling starting today will help clear a lot up. 

If she gets knocked down by shredderola and is a cat 2 or less, I just might stay after I get Mom and the furkids to safety. There's always room at the inn for ya :D 

54 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

Goodbye Charleston Savanah 180

I just did the yard   :(    

49 minutes ago, Wow said:

pressure forecasts for hurricanes a week out is like the rain/snow line.  At this pt, just look at the overall pattern and the track possibilities.

Indeed :)   I'm still riding the OTS members until Friday :P  

 

BTW....thanks all for some great discussion in here :wub: 

 

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Just now, eyewall said:

Could still be a Crabtree toilet stopper for Raleigh with the GFS solution.

The turn north between the 3 main models doesn't seem to be too far from the same time. Just a small difference either earlier or later changes a lot of the impacts. GFS shifts east another 100 miles and it will miss the Florida coast and that brings everyone up north back into it. 

Reminds me of floyd when they evacuated Florida,GA,SC,NC coasts. A nightmare forecasting scenario is going to keep mets and emergency managers busy these next 7 days.

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