downeastnc Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: MBY will go underwater if a cat 3 or higher heads this way according to NOAA's Storm Surge Map So even if it goes the NC, the surge this thing is gonna be pushing will be crazy because it will be so big, with a massive wind field....so even if the center misses you well east you still gonna see a decent surge I suspect....the Euro track would be ugh for Charleston to Hatteras surge wise.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 4 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: Where are you located, Hilton Head? Close....Lady's Island 4 minutes ago, downeastnc said: The issue is(are) the turn(s), the models are really quick to lift the trough out mid week on the last few runs, basically leaving Irma behind and stopping the NW motion. So in some aspects how she behaves now will impact her down the road a lot, the ens members that go up to the Carolinas keep her more W or even a bit WNW from here on out, the ones that go Cuba dig her deeper....if she doesnt get to 16.2 and stays west or even a bit north of west now then she will feel the trough more and get tugged north which will in turn allow the trough to keep her going on the NW turn.....these things always give the models fits as to when they turn when they approach like this...I got to decide whether I am going to spring for a generator and they are back ordered locally unless I want to go $800 and up on a gennie and I dont, so I have to Amazon prime one and that takes 3-5 days so if I am going to do it I need to order it by tomorrow.... Yep I mentioned it a couple of days ago. It's a scary thought that we won't know for sure until these atmospheric conditions are occurring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: I'd wait and pay close attn to the ukie and euro ens this afternoon. Like u stated I'd pay very micro detail to these short term plots and that trough strength. If u have the cash flow you can always re sale the generator or keep it in the garage like mine since 2000. Nice security convenience. I can afford it but I also want a new rifle for deer season sooooooo.....I hate to dump $400 bucks on a 3300 watt generator that I might use once every 5-10 yrs... I agree the Euro is left of the mean with the OP if it corrects east today any then I will probably do it, models tend to do like windshield wipers it seems goes to far east over corrects to the west and then back east etc etc ...I just got a bad feeling this one is gonna come at the Carolinas, though that may be influenced by the fact I live 100 miles west of Hatteras and have a lot at stake on where this thing actually goes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 3 scenarios in the table Watch the evolution of the NE trough and the ridge and then the potential shortwave diving into the gulf states behind it i always like Levi Cowans videos as he presents it with no hype Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 22 minutes ago, WXinCanton said: Lol, what did he say that was wrong? It's way too early to say where it is or isn't going. That's just voicing your opinion of what you want to happen. It adds absolutely nothing to the discussion while spreading false information to those that stop by to check things out without reading the thread. The banter thread is a good place to voice unfounded opinions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 40 minutes ago, NCSNOW said: I'd wait and pay close attn to the ukie and euro ens this afternoon. Like u stated I'd pay very micro detail to these short term plots and that trough strength. If u have the cash flow you can always re sale the generator or keep it in the garage like mine since 2000. Nice security convenience. Seems to have been moving right along just south of the 17th for last few hours. Might miss the next plot by 30 miles or so to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 55 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said: MBY will go underwater if a cat 3 or higher heads this way according to NOAA's Storm Surge Map Hope it's a whiff for you. I'm about 15' under water with a cat 3 in the bad flank, up to 33' with a cat 5. I'll pass on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 41 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said: i always like Levi Cowans videos as he presents it with no hype Haven't seen his videos for this storm, but agree, he's as good as there is out there with tropical analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 11:00 AM AST Mon Sep 4 Location: 16.8°N 53.3°W Moving: WSW at 14 mph Min pressure: 944 mb Max sustained: 120 mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Unusual to see such a smooth ride for a cane through its early lifecycle...excellent outflow on all sides, little shear, little dry air entrainment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Looking over the Euro Ensemble this morning and one thing is sticking out to me regarding how the Irma tracks. Watching Jose develop behind Irma, and you can clearly see that they are really struggling with how the two interact. This may end up being just as important as or even more important then when the trough exits the US. Depending on how close Irma and Jose get, will determine how much the Fujiwhara Effect plays into Irma's track. As in 2005 with Wilma, we saw Hurricane Alpha develop to the the east and that interaction pulled Wilma across FL as Wilma absorbed Alpha. With Irma, I don't think Jose will be absorbed.. but they will affect each other. So 4 keys things to look at regarding Irma's track. 1. Bermuda High strength and position 2. Timing and strength of trough as it exits US 3. Development of Jose and proximity to Irma 4. Topographical features that could potentially disrupt Irma's COC enroute to US This is a great deal for models to digest and looking at the Euro Ensemble one can see how just a few subtle differences will really change Irma's track. If we have little to no interaction between the trough and Jose, Irma likely heads into Gulf or scrapes the west coast of FL. If there is strong interaction between one and not the other with Irma, Irma likely heads for the East Coast of FL or just misses FL and hits SC or NC. If we get strong interaction between Irma, Jose, and the exiting trough, it seems they all pull each other farther out into the Atlantic. The trough to the north picking up Irma seems to be what keeps Irma from burring itself into the US and not OTS, but Fujiwhara interaction and Irma's absorption of Jose would also pull the system to the NE. So many many variables at play here in the atmosphere and it may be another couple of days until we truly get a handle on where exactly Irma will end up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 NHC discussion... Six hourly upper-air soundings will begin at 1800 UTC today over the central United States to better sample the upstream mid-latitude trough. In addition, the NOAA G-IV aircraft will begin sampling the environment around Irma this afternoon and evening, and these data will be included in tonight's 0000 UTC model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 2 minutes ago, griteater said: Unusual to see such a smooth ride for a cane through its early lifecycle...excellent outflow on all sides, little shear, little dry air entrainment Seems like for the last several years, storm after storm has had to battle dry air. It's almost weird to see it not be the case this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 hour ago, buckeyefan1 said: MBY will go underwater if a cat 3 or higher heads this way according to NOAA's Storm Surge Map That sucks....on two levels. One is the obvious but two....you would have to be close to where my inner weenie has wished a major cane moving northwest to make landfall since i was a kid. Now i'd feel guilty as hell if it did....arggh....thanks a lot 18 minutes ago, TPAwx said: Hope it's a whiff for you. I'm about 15' under water with a cat 3 in the bad flank, up to 33' with a cat 5. I'll pass on that. a bit off topic but Although i have never been a big fan of the beech one of the bigger reasons why i'd never want to live near the coast is having to worry every year if this is the year my house gets destroyed. Just the thought of all the trouble involved with preparations, evacuations, and especially having to deal with major damage/total loss of my home is enough to make me feel sick to my stomach. at any rate, pretty amazing to see the latest nhc forecast showing irma on the coast of cuba considering where we were just a few days ago. If you are in florida, one has to hope that there is enough landfall there to weaken it. Hate to think what the result would be if it stays just off the coast. So many factors to consider with irma...more than i can recall with any in recent times..and now there is another one..land interaction with cuba..if, when, and how long. I don't envy the nhc, the local nws or mets with this one. Hopefully the atmospheric sampling starting today will help clear a lot up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 8 minutes ago, griteater said: NHC discussion... Six hourly upper-air soundings will begin at 1800 UTC today over the central United States to better sample the upstream mid-latitude trough. In addition, the NOAA G-IV aircraft will begin sampling the environment around Irma this afternoon and evening, and these data will be included in tonight's 0000 UTC model runs. Once these data points start getting ingested we should see a settling of the models.....i hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 16 minutes ago, shaggy said: Once these data points start getting ingested we should see a settling of the models.....i hope Does data like this get fed into all models, just the U.S. models, etc.? I would hope/assume all, but I've never been able to find a clear answer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 19 minutes ago, Lookout said: That sucks....on two levels. One is the obvious but two....you would have to be close to where my inner weenie has wished a major cane moving northwest to make landfall since i was a kid. Now i'd feel guilty as hell if it did....arggh....thanks a lot a bit off topic but Although i have never been a big fan of the beech one of the bigger reasons why i'd never want to live near the coast is having to worry every year if this is the year my house gets destroyed. Just the thought of all the trouble involved with preparations, evacuations, and especially having to deal with major damage/total loss of my home is enough to make me feel sick to my stomach. at any rate, pretty amazing to see the latest nhc forecast showing irma on the coast of cuba considering where we were just a few days ago. If you are in florida, one has to hope that there is enough landfall there to weaken it. Hate to think what the result would be if it stays just off the coast. So many factors to consider with irma...more than i can recall with any in recent times..and now there is another one..land interaction with cuba..if, when, and how long. I don't envy the nhc, the local nws or mets with this one. Hopefully the atmospheric sampling starting today will help clear a lot up. Yeah agree with all that. Tampa has had a sustained run of luck with respect to avoiding direct hurricane impacts, let alone majors. Seems to be in a good geographical location for typical tracks from both Atlantic and Gulf canes. But it's really exposed if one approaches at the right (wrong) trajectory and intensity. Trade offs of living at waters edge. This is going to be a tough one for State and local officials all over the SE, especially with how social media tends to amplify things, both good and bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magpiemaniac Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 hour ago, downeastnc said: The issue is the turn, the models are really quick to lift the trough out mid week on the last few runs, basically leaving Irma behind and stopping the NW motion. So in some aspects how she behaves now will impact her down the road a lot, the ens members that go up to the Carolinas keep her more W or even a bit WNW from here on out, the ones that go Cuba dig her deeper....if she doesnt get to 16.2 and stays west or even a bit north of west now then she will feel the trough more and get tugged north which will in turn allow the trough to keep her going on the NW turn.....these things always give the models fits as to when they turn when they approach like this...I got to decide whether I am going to spring for a generator and they are back ordered locally unless I want to go $800 and up on a gennie and I dont, so I have to Amazon prime one and that takes 3-5 days so if I am going to do it I need to order it by tomorrow.... Make sure the generator you buy has an inverter. Otherwise, you are likely to fry anything you plug into it that has a microprocessor, i.e., almost any electrical device or appliance nowadays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 GFS finally coming to its senses! Northward shift incoming on GFS ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: GFS finally coming to its senses! Northward shift incoming on GFS ! It seemed inevitable, any idea how much of a shift this might be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ser Pounce said: It seemed inevitable, any idea how much of a shift this might be? The run hasn't gotten that far yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 14 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: GFS finally coming to its senses! Northward shift incoming on GFS ! It's not that much though yet through 114...near the coast of cuba...and it's still lifting the eastern us trough out faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 at least this run doesn't take it completely through cuba...interestingly it goes from being quicker still to lifting the eastern us trough out to slightly slower by hour 126 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Down to 901mb 890mb just south of the keys. What a monster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, LithiaWx said: Down to 901mb I honestly wouldn't pay too much attention to the absurd pressures the gfs has been showing since it's clearly something wrong with it since the upgrade but it's obviously got potential to be a strong cat 4 or 5. Certainly a much worse scenario for south florida since it pretty much stays over water. Makes landfall there by hour 150. ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 1 minute ago, Lookout said: I honestly wouldn't pay too much attention to the absurd pressures the gfs has been showing since it's clearly something wrong with it since the upgrade but it's obviously got potential to be a strong cat 4 or 5. Certainly a much worse scenario for south florida since it pretty much stays over water. Makes landfall there by hour 150. ouch. Agreed but I do buy those pressures down there now, that far south, a lot more than when those were showing up at the sc/nc border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 889 about to hit miami from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Poimen Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Similar track and pressure to the "Labor Day" hurricane of 1935 (892mb), so it's happened before. But yeah probably unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Misses riding up east of Florida. Waiting on westward left turn and someones gonna get buzzsawed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.