Solak Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 LOL-= NHC Given the poor organization of the disturbance and the strong wind shear environment that it is embedded within, the chances of this disturbance becoming a tropical cyclone have decreased to about a coin flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alhooks13 Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Barely any wind at Kitty Hawk at the moment. Have gotten lots of rain. Parts of Hatteras Island are flooding from heavy rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Schools were delayed for a few hours this morning in anticipation of heavy rain that never materialized. I picked up a grand total of 1.33". Winds are just above calm with occasional drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alhooks13 Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Still no wind to speak of and the sun has been peeking through at times this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 16 hours ago, downeastnc said: Just a tad....though the Nam did start backing off last night...this is my point forecast at the moment.....so maybe we still see some wind on the gradient but rainfall is going to be meh....which is fine by most here in eastern NC I am sure, we dont really need it. "Showers and possibly a thunderstorm before 2pm, then a chance of showers. Some of the storms could produce heavy rainfall. High near 74. Windy, with a northeast wind 8 to 13 mph becoming southeast 21 to 31 mph. Winds could gust as high as 44 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New rainfall amounts between three quarters and one inch possible." Yeah, the NAM at 7-9" across central NC was just absolutely ridiculous. And a day before the event! The rule remains: don't bet on heavy rain when you are on the west side of a tropical system going north or northeast. And especially not if it's just developing and struggling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 30, 2017 Author Share Posted August 30, 2017 Figure we can just reuse this thread......NHC is beginning advisories on TS Irma beginning at 11 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Tropical Storm Irma Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL112017 1100 AM AST Wed Aug 30 2017 Satellite images indicate that the low pressure area in the far eastern Atlantic has become much better organized since yesterday, with many curved bands around the center. ASCAT data showed peak winds of about 42 kt, and after considering the small size of the circulation and some undersampling due to the resolution of the instrument, the initial wind speed is set to 45 kt. Global models indicate that the upper-level winds are likely to be favorable for strengthening of Irma during the next several days. However, Irma will be moving over more marginal water temperatures and into drier mid-level conditions, which should temper the intensification rate. The NHC solution is a blend of the intensity consensus and the statistical-dynamical hurricane models SHIPS and LGEM. At the end of the period, the forecast could turn out to be conservative if the very conducive environment shown in most of the global models emerges. The initial motion estimate is 280/11. A ridge over the eastern Atlantic is forecast to steer Irma westward over the next few days. Thereafter, the ridge builds southwestward, which will likely cause the storm to move, somewhat unusually, toward the west-southwest. The official forecast puts more weight on the global models than the regional hurricane models, which appear to have a northward bias on this cycle. Thus, the NHC track prediction is on the southwestern side of the guidance envelope, although not as far in that direction as the ECMWF or its ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 30/1500Z 16.4N 30.3W 45 KT 50 MPH 12H 31/0000Z 16.7N 31.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 24H 31/1200Z 17.3N 33.8W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 01/0000Z 17.9N 35.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 01/1200Z 18.2N 37.6W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 02/1200Z 18.7N 41.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 03/1200Z 17.7N 46.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 120H 04/1200Z 17.0N 51.0W 80 KT 90 MPH $$ Forecaster Blake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Looks like the true Irma has finally shown up. And this one we really need to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 12Z GFS showing Irma as a cat 5 at 240 hrs south of Bermuda and then doing a recurve out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Euro keeps it south of that and heading toward the islands! Will have to definitely watch this one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Euro has it close to the southern Bahamas at day 9 moving west/northwest. Buzzsaw incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Time will tell, I think odds are recurve but all it takes is the storm to miss the east coast trough and then you have a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Don't like the looks of this at all. This has a SE hit written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 30, 2017 Author Share Posted August 30, 2017 5 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: Euro has it close to the southern Bahamas at day 9 moving west/northwest. Buzzsaw incoming. Yeah Euro sticking to its guns and that's a bad look...I also get nervous when the Euro stays consistent....its first hinted at this storm Sat and it hasn't moved much with its track idea either.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 The atmosphere is oftentimes a force of habit. Would be weary and on guard with Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 10 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Don't like the looks of this at all. This has a SE hit written all over it. Hello Miami, "tag, you're it". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Comparing 12z EPS from today v/s yesterday...still not budging and if anything more members look ominous. Courtesy of Ryan Maue twitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Irma looking quite healthy with solid outflow on latest satellite images Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 15 minutes ago, packbacker said: Comparing 12z EPS from today v/s yesterday...still not budging and if anything more members look ominous. Courtesy of Ryan Maue twitter Definitely not a good look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 21 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: Definitely not a good look. Well would imagine more than half of the members recurve...but a good chunk probably hit or into the gulf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said: Don't like the looks of this at all. This has a SE hit written all over it. You're right. If it ends up there it isn't a good look. Big question is, will it. A long voyage ahead for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Trough looks to miss it on this run of the EURO. Would likely allow it to continue WNW or NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Latest forecast update from the hurricane center has Irma as a major hurricane by late Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Hard to bet against ukmet and euro combo with H5 agreement down the road. That was story at 12z, I'll check 0z in the a.m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 6z GFS for day 10: (edit: of course don't look at the exact position, just know somewhere on the east coast could get a hit) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 7 minutes ago, FallsLake said: 6z GFS for day 10: (edit: of course don't look at the exact position, just know somewhere on the east coast could get a hit) Looking at the moment like re-curve is looking less likely! Euro is still way south and heading towards Cuba. GFS looks like it's a little south of the track it was showing yesterday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 I will still be on Emerald Isle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 EPS is gung ho with the atlantic ridge....GEFS say meh...usually something in the middle pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Joe BastardiVerified account @BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago GFS looks too far north even with 06z Carolina disaster run.Advising clients in Leewards /PR to start preparations for possible major impact Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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