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Hurricane Irma


downeastnc

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2 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said:

UKIE is further south in the southern Bahamas at 144, think that would be a FLA hit if it ran a few more frames.This missing the trough and plowing west is still very much possible as was shown a few days ago.

Yep or a weaker atlantic ridge...seems like this cane has been 8-9 days away for several days now.

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1 minute ago, NC_hailstorm said:

UKIE is further south in the southern Bahamas at 144, think that would be a FLA hit if it ran a few more frames.This missing the trough and plowing west is still very much possible as was shown a few days ago.

A lot depends on how fast the trough moves out and the ridging builds in to turn her westward again.  The transition will determine how much latitude she can gain before the cutoff ULL and ridge overhead take over.

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1 minute ago, packbacker said:

Yeah...the Euro has been good with Irma's track but GEFS is handling the Pacific and resulting trough better...IMO.

I'm curious to see if the Euro finally shows a trough building in over the W coast like the other models are showing.  So far it's been holding on to a flat ridge which keeps the ridge building east as the trough pulls out.

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2 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

GEFS mean goes from Charleston over towards Atlanta. 

lol.. yeah pulls here straight into Chattanooga.  The cutoff ULL is definitely going to bring her inland.  All depends how far north she makes it before the curve west.

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4 minutes ago, Wow said:

I'm curious to see if the Euro finally shows a trough building in over the W coast like the other models are showing.  So far it's been holding on to a flat ridge which keeps the ridge building east as the trough pulls out.

Yep...GEFS has been trying to do that but it does lose it day 7+, Euro hints but never does.

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This is a scary look on the 12z GEFS regarding possible track.  I know there is a chance that this thing still re curves back out to sea, but each run like this.. those chances dwindle.  People who live up and down the East Coast need to review their evacuation plans and prepare themselves to possibly have to evacuate.  With the GFS and HWRF showing this hurricane dipping below 900MB at some point in time, Irma will not be one to stick around for and could likely produce damage on a scale that most of us haven't seen (yes, possibly a stronger wind field than Harvey). 

 

No automatic alt text available.

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18 minutes ago, shaggy said:

Meanwhile Irma is tracking well north of the next forecast plot from the NHC. Almost due west again for right now. 

I noticed that.  Very good news.  I don't want to see a more westward track that brings Irma to the Florida coast before the hard right turn.  

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23 minutes ago, Hvward said:

This is a scary look on the 12z GEFS regarding possible track.  I know there is a chance that this thing still re curves back out to sea, but each run like this.. those chance dwindle.  People who live up and down the East Coast need to review their evacuation plans and prepare themselves to possible have to evacuate.  With The GFS and HWRF showing this Hurricane dipping below 900MB at some point and time, Irma will not be one to stick around for and could likely produce damage on a scale that most of us haven't seen (yes, possibly a stronger wind field than Harvey). 

 

No automatic alt text available.

 

What strikes me is this thing hauls ass once it gets inland, just like Hugo did. Control run of the 12z GEFS has a borderline category 3 hurricane over Chester, SC.

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What strikes me is this thing hauls ass once it gets inland, just like Hugo did. Control run of the 12z GEFS has a borderline category 3 hurricane over Chester, SC.

 

 

 

Yeah I think Hugo could end up being a good comparison to Irma, with Irma possibly being stronger. We are still 7 days or so a lot could change regarding track of course, but at the moment, what the models are showing face value is very serious.

 

 

ETA: that map you just posted would spell out flooding problems for a good many members on the board. Topographic enhancement would likely cause WNC to get absolutely hammered with rainfall.

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9 minutes ago, TPAwx said:

Never going to take a 5+ day op or ensemble at face value, but just completed a Publix run to stock up on water before the rush.  Not liking the evolution of the recent model outputs.

The way recent runs have been looking like, for us it would be less tuning up the generator and stocking up on a few things and more bugging out completely. This is no Matthew.

 

Looking forward to the models using data from the flight that's supposedly taking off in half an hour and seeing how that affects model runs.

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