Ander Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Even taking a conservative view on this, if it holds to form what is it a Cat 2-3 in the Triangle? Be first legit hurricane for me in the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: UKIE is further south in the southern Bahamas at 144, think that would be a FLA hit if it ran a few more frames.This missing the trough and plowing west is still very much possible as was shown a few days ago. Yep or a weaker atlantic ridge...seems like this cane has been 8-9 days away for several days now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, NC_hailstorm said: UKIE is further south in the southern Bahamas at 144, think that would be a FLA hit if it ran a few more frames.This missing the trough and plowing west is still very much possible as was shown a few days ago. A lot depends on how fast the trough moves out and the ridging builds in to turn her westward again. The transition will determine how much latitude she can gain before the cutoff ULL and ridge overhead take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Yep or a weaker atlantic ridge...seems like this cane has been 8-9 days away for several days now. It's trending slower. The slower, the more south she will head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 12z GEFS also trending S. Mean center over the N Bahamas at 168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: It's trending slower. The slower, the more south she will head. Yeah...the Euro has been good with Irma's track but GEFS is handling the Pacific and resulting trough better...IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 GEFS mean goes from Charleston over towards Atlanta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Yeah...the Euro has been good with Irma's track but GEFS is handling the Pacific and resulting trough better...IMO. I'm curious to see if the Euro finally shows a trough building in over the W coast like the other models are showing. So far it's been holding on to a flat ridge which keeps the ridge building east as the trough pulls out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, packfan98 said: GEFS mean goes from Charleston over towards Atlanta. lol.. yeah pulls here straight into Chattanooga. The cutoff ULL is definitely going to bring her inland. All depends how far north she makes it before the curve west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 5 minutes ago, packfan98 said: GEFS mean goes from Charleston over towards Atlanta. Major cane riding up the Savanah River lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, Wow said: I'm curious to see if the Euro finally shows a trough building in over the W coast like the other models are showing. So far it's been holding on to a flat ridge which keeps the ridge building east as the trough pulls out. Yep...GEFS has been trying to do that but it does lose it day 7+, Euro hints but never does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 When looking at how things looked today versus what the EPS/GEFS modeled it to be 6-7 days ago...over did the atlantic ridge. Edit: EPS looked to be in good agreement once inside day 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 This is a scary look on the 12z GEFS regarding possible track. I know there is a chance that this thing still re curves back out to sea, but each run like this.. those chances dwindle. People who live up and down the East Coast need to review their evacuation plans and prepare themselves to possibly have to evacuate. With the GFS and HWRF showing this hurricane dipping below 900MB at some point in time, Irma will not be one to stick around for and could likely produce damage on a scale that most of us haven't seen (yes, possibly a stronger wind field than Harvey). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Meanwhile Irma is tracking well north of the next forecast plot from the NHC. Almost due west again for right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 18 minutes ago, shaggy said: Meanwhile Irma is tracking well north of the next forecast plot from the NHC. Almost due west again for right now. I noticed that. Very good news. I don't want to see a more westward track that brings Irma to the Florida coast before the hard right turn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 23 minutes ago, Hvward said: This is a scary look on the 12z GEFS regarding possible track. I know there is a chance that this thing still re curves back out to sea, but each run like this.. those chance dwindle. People who live up and down the East Coast need to review their evacuation plans and prepare themselves to possible have to evacuate. With The GFS and HWRF showing this Hurricane dipping below 900MB at some point and time, Irma will not be one to stick around for and could likely produce damage on a scale that most of us haven't seen (yes, possibly a stronger wind field than Harvey). What strikes me is this thing hauls ass once it gets inland, just like Hugo did. Control run of the 12z GEFS has a borderline category 3 hurricane over Chester, SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Never going to take a 5+ day op or ensemble at face value, but just completed a Publix run to stock up on water before the rush. Not liking the evolution of the recent model outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, Queencitywx said: What strikes me is this thing hauls ass once it gets inland, just like Hugo did. Control run of the 12z GEFS has a borderline category 3 hurricane over Chester, SC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 What strikes me is this thing hauls ass once it gets inland, just like Hugo did. Control run of the 12z GEFS has a borderline category 3 hurricane over Chester, SC. Yeah I think Hugo could end up being a good comparison to Irma, with Irma possibly being stronger. We are still 7 days or so a lot could change regarding track of course, but at the moment, what the models are showing face value is very serious. ETA: that map you just posted would spell out flooding problems for a good many members on the board. Topographic enhancement would likely cause WNC to get absolutely hammered with rainfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 9 minutes ago, TPAwx said: Never going to take a 5+ day op or ensemble at face value, but just completed a Publix run to stock up on water before the rush. Not liking the evolution of the recent model outputs. The way recent runs have been looking like, for us it would be less tuning up the generator and stocking up on a few things and more bugging out completely. This is no Matthew. Looking forward to the models using data from the flight that's supposedly taking off in half an hour and seeing how that affects model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 12 minutes ago, Queencitywx said: Ouch! That is very scary! Never thought I would see another Hugo, and hope I don't! The forward speed of Hugo left 90 mph wind damage through the Piedmont regions of NC and Northward! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Euro even more SW this run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Euro even more SW this run.... Yeah that's what I was thinking. Pretty south position so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 This looks like a completely different solution currently with Irma being so south this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, Met1985 said: Yeah that's what I was thinking. Pretty south position so far. Either gonna be a Hugo/Fran run or something close to a Hazel type track....if it doesnt hit Florida lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Bye bye Nassau on this run. Geez Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 hell I think its going to Florida... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Nope.. moving N at 168.. Will start curving west once the ridge builds over. Oh boy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: hell I think its going to Florida... A north turn at hour 168... Could be a hot further down the coast of the SE or plow right into FL or something similar to the CMC. Speculations all the way around.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Euro going with the UKIE,even further south than it though at 144. No need to look any further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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