mackerel_sky Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 IF,IF, there is a SE landfall, what days would it be? The 9-11th timeframe! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 GFS is running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 21 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: GFS is running. It's gonna be South and West! Keeping the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 A clear route towards the SE coast. The trough is moving out in time. More progressive and a bit weaker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 this is gonna be another carolinas hit i believe. the strength this run is insanity, 880mb...cannot imagine the storm surge verbatim Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Well there is a big ridge over head now...it should stall/crawl. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 This thing looks extremely impressive on the model runs. Just so organized and put together. Does not bode well for the SE I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 201 she is heading right towards the SC/NC boarder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Insane...trapped by atlantic ridge and the plains ridge and grabbed onto by a piece of energy in the deep south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Utter disaster for the Carolinas on this run. Yuck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 The scope that this storm will have on people will be crazy. Large rain and wind field. Yeah Pack that look is crazy. Again we have many to go but the GFS has been hitting this for a couple of runs now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Watching this run come in is a bit sickening. That whole area of the coast will never be the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 GFS is a Hazel redux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 CMC a little more realistic...LF/rides FL coast and up into the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 The H5 is crazy as it virtually moves across NC. Lots of energy going of under and around this storm. Talk about mass flooding... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 18 minutes ago, DopplerWx said: this is gonna be another carolinas hit i believe. the strength this run is insanity, 880mb...cannot imagine the storm surge verbatim I think it's safe to say the super low pressures the gfs is showing is probably bogus and over done...it's been doing it since the last update as some have pointed out. The euro is much more realistic but it's still insanely strong...around 920mb. It's really quite extraordinary how long and much the models have agreed on bringing a very powerful hurricane by this point. Interesting to note the gfs continues trending more and more to the south with the upper low over the midsouth which causes irma to curve westward after landfall. canadian still showing a florida landfall then big rainmaker for the se too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 From ILM to RDU to GSO get blasted apart by the GFS verbatim. CLT avoids the worst being on the west side of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Crazy run on the GFS with the remnants basically stalling out then getting collected by a trough coming down moving things back east. Just one run but the evolution of this scenario would be bad for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, griteater said: GFS is a Hazel redux That it is. Hazel got accelerated and laid a whooping on everyone and everything on the east coast all the way up the seaboard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 UK on the south side of the Bahamas. With how things are trending a FL landfall is going up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 8 minutes ago, Disc said: Watching this run come in is a bit sickening. That whole area of the coast will never be the same. yeah, this is no joke....looking like another major disaster for sure. Can't believe we are looking at such a thing so soon after the worst one we've ever had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Canadian, however, would wreck a lot of shoreline before moving curving inland right into the S Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LovingGulfLows Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Doomdays run on the GFS for the Carolinas. This one hits closer to home too than Harvey. The Solar Eclipse is clearly bringing a bunch of canes into the US(being sarcastic). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I think these most recent runs need to grab people's attention. Like many said the media will be all over this. Good or bad people may want to plan accordingly for the worst case scenario just in case things go sideways. we still have a ton of time between know and then... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Doonsday is about right, and not a very far miss from home for lots of us within a short drive to the coast. I can't even imagine how they'd try to manage the evacuation given just a small change in course would bring a different city entirely over to the target in both SC, NC and possibly even GA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Would be better for us in the east as we would never be closer than 100+ miles from the center . Still get strong TS force winds with higher gusts though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ragtop50 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 My area was hit hard by two hurricanes with similar tracks (as mentioned a few times by others on here) Hazel and Fran. I personally experienced Fran in 96 and I can tell you even this far inland it would be bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 17 minutes ago, Wow said: Canadian, however, would wreck a lot of shoreline before moving curving inland right into the S Apps. A closer look at the canadian shows the eye skirting right over and paralleling the florida coast...even briefly moving off shore before making landfall in ga. So there might not be a ton of weakening with that track and could possibly still be a cat 3 on the ga coast. Highly unusual track and it's rare to see any canes, much less major ones, make landfall on the ga coast. The last cat 3 was in the 1890s IIRC from the other thread. Having such a powerful storm paralleling the coast like that would be pretty bad in terms of raking the coast and make an awful headache for emergency management and citizens trying to decide whether to evacuate. Hopefully it will be a lot clearer well before then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 UKIE is further south in the southern Bahamas at 144, think that would be a FLA hit if it ran a few more frames.This missing the trough and plowing west is still very much possible as was shown a few days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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