ncskywarn Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I'm posting here what I just posted in the main tropical thread. Through North Carolina at least this has Fran written all over it only worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 40 minutes ago, jburns said: This has my attention more than it usually would this far out because, except for the crazy low pressure, it makes sense. Between Wilmington and Cape Lookout is where we get hit the most. Usually, the storms ride up through the sounds behind the banks and exit near Duck and head off to the Northeast. However, the synoptic setup clearly shows the block that will prevent that rightward arc and instead forces it west as it gains latitude. We have examples of that as well with Hugo and to a lesser extent Hazel and Floyd. Yep, the thing that bothers me about that run is it "looks" right....I have seen it plenty of times and historically its just a favored track.... Another thing to consider is that even with the pressure being obviously to low it should still be a 930-940 MB and a very large storm.....the amount of water it will be pushing in front of it will be crazy and if that track pans out we will likely see record setting surges especially north of the center landfall. I also would not be surprised to see the SW trend continue in the models for a few more days, it seems all the storms that hit us are suppose to hit SC first and only slowly does the track move up the coast as we get inside 4-5 days. This is assuming that it ends up hitting NC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Euro slams into NC this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 After they've been kinda doing their own things, it's scary seeing them trend to being this close in certainty. Here's hoping the south trend continues and it shoots the gap or it heads north and gets yanked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
goldman75 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 06z has a landfall near sc/NC border again on 9/11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 6Z gefs has 2 camps. One into Florida and one into the Carolinas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 4 hours ago, goldman75 said: Here's hoping the south trend continues and it shoots the gap or it heads north and gets yanked. I for one, don't want to see it shoot the gap. If it were to head to TX or LA, gas prices would be insane. Just from Harvey our pump price shot up 35 cents per gallon and is now $2.85 from a low of $2.49 a week and a half ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Very unsettling overnight runs for Florida, and obviously up to NC. Timing and placement of the trough changes and Irma cuts a swath through FLA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 I don't like seeing the GFS and Euro both showing a NC landfall. I know the GFS can be horrible, but both of them showing it is very concerning. What had the HWRF model been showing? I know it did well with Hermine, and a other model that starts with a H did, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 8 hours ago, JoshM said: Anyone notice the date of the storm potential? September 11th? That kinda freaked me out. I have been thinking the same thing. Something very ominous about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 For what it's worth Bastardi just said he feels there still is a way out offshore but it's still a week out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, nchighcountrywx said: For what it's worth Bastardi just said he feels there still is a way out offshore but it's still a week out Are Brad P and Bastardi related? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said: I don't like seeing the GFS and Euro both showing a NC landfall. I know the GFS can be horrible, but both of them showing it is very concerning. What had the HWRF model been showing? I know it did well with Hermine, and a other model that starts with a H did, too. I'm sticking with the 7-10 day out bullseye safety zone theory. If this thing hits where it is being shown right now, my hat will be off to our long range modeling capabilities. Of course, it will be off anyway due to 100 mph winds! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just to compare the setup from NC's worst hurricanes (48 pre-LF) to what the ensembles are spitting out for day 7.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: I'm sticking with the 7-10 day out bullseye safety zone theory. If this thing hits where it is being shown right now, my hat will be off to our long range modeling capabilities. Of course, it will be off anyway due to 100 mph winds! I think I just jinxed it enough with the post above.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover91 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, packbacker said: Your guy Fishel says we are all dummies... Greg FishelVerified account @gbfishel 1h1 hour ago More For you weather hobbyists out there, temptation to think the latest model run is most reliable. It's not. A week out anybody's ballgame. Normally I would agree... but Euro has been outstanding with Irma past day 6 and our trough evolution is under 120 hours now and well agreed upon by the GFS and Euro. I went back and looked at old runs of the Euro... it’s shocking how well it has done in the extended range. Here is a comparison from an old day 10 run versus day 5 now. Day 10 old run Day 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 And I thought the 00Z GFS was bad enough but throw in a Euro run to match and a GFS repeat at 06Z and the fact that that track is the climo favored one for a poleward turning cane that is blocked from escaping and this gets to be a bit worrisome. If it was a run of the mill getting sheared transitioning Cat2 this would be not to big of a deal but until models back off how big and deep this storm will be this is not a good look for NC. Need this to be a day hit if it does come here please please dont hit at night..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 32 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Are Brad P and Bastardi related? Lol! It's like people are clinging on to the one solution out of a 100 that show it going to miss land ( mets I'm referring to) and giving people false hope!? I realize it's 8 days away or so, but with a consensus of the models overnight, the avg Joe, needs a little warning at this point!? How come JB isn't hyping his face off? Because NE not in crosshairs anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 27 minutes ago, downeastnc said: And I thought the 00Z GFS was bad enough but throw in a Euro run to match and a GFS repeat at 06Z and the fact that that track is the climo favored one for a poleward turning cane that is blocked from escaping and this gets to be a bit worrisome. If it was a run of the mill getting sheared transitioning Cat2 this would be not to big of a deal but until models back off how big and deep this storm will be this is not a good look for NC. Need this to be a day hit if it does come here please please dont hit at night..... What's 6z gefs show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 So....low shear and 29-30C ocean temps upcoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: What's 6z gefs show? You buying? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Trending slower and further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 The thing to take away from the runs is the agreement, its rare for the Euro and GFS to show agreement in the long range right and I all but guarantee runs over the next week that go anywhere from Florida to OTS again....but when you go back and look at the runs of most of the models there will be small windows where they agree, several days ago there was amazing agreement with the models for Irma to be just north of Puerto Rico and the GFS/Euro agreement was scary they probably had the center within a 100 miles of each other at day 10ish I even posted on it. Then they diverged again but they had it right it appears for those few runs cause those runs are all going to be very close to its actual location when it gets there..lets hope this current agreement doesnt mean they have it as right as the earlier agreement did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 18 minutes ago, packbacker said: You buying? Looks the same as yesterday's gefs! I'm going out on a small limb and calling for a GA, SC, NC landfall. Still along way off, but model convergence is slightly alarming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 hour ago, mackerel_sky said: Lol! It's like people are clinging on to the one solution out of a 100 that show it going to miss land ( mets I'm referring to) and giving people false hope!? I realize it's 8 days away or so, but with a consensus of the models overnight, the avg Joe, needs a little warning at this point!? How come JB isn't hyping his face off? Because NE not in crosshairs anymore? We are still way out for a landfall BUT the models have shown this recurve but not a safe recurve through the last several days. They've ran a few OTS but most have had impacts somewhere along the east coast. With the runs last night it raises my concern some. The CMC would only need a minor shift east to miss Florida and be similar to the GS/Euro. The models and their ensembles are narrowing. IF IF IF the models are close with this consensus they are coming to this far out that is a major win for models. Its this rarity that gives me hope it will miss. The models couldn't possibly be this right this far out could they? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 46 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said: Looks the same as yesterday's gefs! I'm going out on a small limb and calling for a GA, SC, NC landfall. Still along way off, but model convergence is slightly alarming Irma could still do anything. FL, fish, GOM, NE, OTS. I'm not worried yet. When there is more consistency of a LF location it could still be off by 100s of miles in the end. There is a long way to go. I don't fault people for being cautious but some posts in the main thread are just straight wishcasts for a tragedy and catastrophe. three and five day cones are huge. We are still what 7 days out? my wish cast is a huge cane plowing into the Southeast on a straight line into Atlanta. The psychology of weather weenies and weather disaster is one deep and winding rabbit hole of wtf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 10 hours ago, JoshM said: Drought buster No drought buster here, my backyard is water logged as it is. We definitely don't need a hurricane. The amount of tree falls would rival Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, LithiaWx said: Irma could still do anything. FL, fish, GOM, NE, OTS. I'm not worried yet. When there is more consistency of a LF location it could still be off by 100s of miles in the end. There is a long way to go. I don't fault people for being cautious but some posts in the main thread are just straight wishcasts for a tragedy and catastrophe. The models are starting to really agree on the long wave pattern evolution, and they should be able to correctly model large scale feature like that in the 5-7 day range accurately, this should make a escape NE unlikely....still to soon to talk where but a true OTS escape looks less likely every run, the same with the GOM there would have to be some major errors in the models in the 3-4 days range for this to slow enough to duck the trough, or errors is the strength and depth of the trough and thats unlikely in this range. I would bet the 5 day plot the NHC has is right within 100 miles or so there is excellent model agreement for that timing and location now.... the questions is quickly narrowing down to, how much of impact will it have on the NE islands, how much impact will it have on the Bahamas, how close to FL does it get before it turns, where along the EC is it going to hit, how deep and strong is it really going to be..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, downeastnc said: The models are starting to really agree on the long wave pattern evolution, and they should be able to correctly model large scale feature like that in the 5-7 day range accurately, this should make a escape NE unlikely....still to soon to talk where but a true OTS escape looks less likely every run, the same with the GOM there would have to be some major errors in the models in the 3-4 days range for this to slow enough to duck the trough, or errors is the strength and depth of the trough and thats unlikely in this range. I would bet the 5 day plot the NHC has is right within 100 miles or so there is excellent model agreement for that timing and location now.... the questions is quickly narrowing down to, how much of impact will it have on the NE islands, how much impact will it have on the Bahamas, how close to FL does it get before it turns, where along the EC is it going to hit, how deep and strong is it really going to be..... See my edit. I'm pulling this thing into FL or the GOM. JMO but the same features that could keep Irma from turning could easily keep her moving west. Could be wrong there but if the weakness in the eventual ridge isn't there or doesn't catch her then she makes a slight vear north then starts mainly west again right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 7 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: See my edit. I'm pulling this thing into FL or the GOM. JMO but the same features that could keep Irma from turning could easily keep her moving west. Could be wrong there but if the weakness in the eventual ridge isn't there or doesn't catch her then she makes a beer north then starts west again right? Well technically sure, but the trough is well modeled and agreed on so it would take a pretty big short term miss in a large scale feature on all the models for that to happen....the model agreement on the timing and location of Irma is good through Wed/Thur.....if they are right then there is a high chance this thing will turn up the coast instead of crossing Florida simply because it will have moved fast enough to catch the weakness....if they have the wave break pattern that happens up north over Canada right as well then that will shut the door on a NE escape and it all comes down to where on the east coast it hits....anywhere from Fl to NC is the most likely.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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