griteater Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 It's more detached from the E U.S. trough (trough not as deep) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 About to cross or ride up 75W IN THE BAHAMAS.....thats a massive shift from earlier were it doesnt cross 75W till north of Hatteras. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Yeah GFS is on crack with the pressure though 887 at 180 east of Cape Canaveral headed NNW..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Canadian adjusted SW as well, FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Way it's looking it could end up very close to a Fran track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, JoshM said: Canadian adjusted SW as well, FWIW. How much for Smyre? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Women and children first. Look at that pressure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: Women and children first. Look at that pressure Will have to hand out packs of bubble gum to the people in the path of that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Couple more SW adjustments, and we might have Hugo's pissed off sister. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 No words for this run other than please let this GFS run be wrong.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, downeastnc said: No words for this run other than please let this GFS run be wrong.... NAM played that biblical storm pressure with Harvey, never panned out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 What happened tonight...UK went SW too, raking the Bahamas at 144. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, JoshM said: Couple more SW adjustments, and we might have Hugo's pissed off sister. Look at Jose limping along, further South! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, JoshM said: NAM played that biblical storm pressure with Harvey, never panned out. Even if its overdone by 50-60 mb thats still a 930-940mb Cat 3/4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Saw where a met said the GFS has been over strengthening tropical systems across the globe...but nevertheless, it's a strong system on the model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Look at Jose limping along, further South! I mentioned earlier in the thread I thought September would be Hurricane pride month. I guess my mojo works outside of winter, which kinda sucks, in this case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Yep obliterates my vacation spot for past 22 years. Good news is ECU wouldn't have to play a football game for a while. On a serious note this is starting to get past uneasiness and entering concerned territory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Drought buster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, griteater said: Saw where a met said the GFS has been over strengthening tropical systems across the globe...but nevertheless, it's a strong system on the model. That would basically put the entire eastern half of NC in winds gusting to 80-100 mph or better, and well I hate to say it but that was probably the most realistic run versus climo we have seen so far..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Right over Western Wake County about hour 209. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Holy hell @ the Canadian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, NCSNOW said: Yep obliterates my vacation spot for past 22 years. Good news is ECU wouldn't have to play a football game for a while. On a serious note this is starting to get past uneasiness and entering concerned territory Verbatim this run is about as bad as it gets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, JoshM said: Drought buster no drought here if anything we are on the soggy side.....most of the places that nails just has 2-4" yesterday...I have had almost 10" in the last 10 days.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 minutes ago, JoshM said: Drought buster Still a rain hole over Shetley! But seriously, the SW trends this evening: Scary Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Just now, mackerel_sky said: Still a rain hole over Shetley! But seriously, the SW trends this evening: Scary Canadian takes Irma over the entire SE Forum. Rides up Florida east coast, thru GA and the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, jburns said: Verbatim this run is about as bad as it gets. Yep can't draw it up anyworse, that pressure is wowza. Canadian would be Hugo redux I'll have to go check but we should be getting decent rains mid week. But the wind effect from gfs or Candian would be major disruption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Anyone notice the date of the storm potential? September 11th? That kinda freaked me out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 This has my attention more than it usually would this far out because, except for the crazy low pressure, it makes sense. Between Wilmington and Cape Lookout is where we get hit the most. Usually, the storms ride up through the sounds behind the banks and exit near Duck and head off to the Northeast. However, the synoptic setup clearly shows the block that will prevent that rightward arc and instead forces it west as it gains latitude. We have examples of that as well with Hugo and to a lesser extent Hazel and Floyd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 minute ago, jburns said: This has my attention more than it usually would this far out because, except for the crazy low pressure, it makes sense. Between Wilmington and Cape Lookout is where we get hit the most. Usually, the storms ride up through the sounds behind the banks and exit near Duck and head off to the Northeast. However, the synoptic setup clearly shows the block that will prevent that rightward arc and instead forces it west as it gains latitude. We have examples of that as well with Hugo and to a lesser extent Hazel and Floyd. Ya... In all seriousness, I would urge anyone from Florida to the Mid-atlantic to get supplies (water, batteries etc.) just in case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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