JoshM Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 @174 down to 884mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 The OBX gets wrecked....still going to go east of NC it seems but not by enough to spare the OBX or heck the IBX for that matter. this would be worst hit the OBX has taken in living memory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Irma gets slower and slower each run, going to be a long week!!! @204 holy heck, outer banks and VA coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 This is obscene. That trough is going to make this forecast impossible until the last 3-4 days of landfall at best. In 1 day, GFS went from Quebec to OBX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, JoshM said: Irma gets slower and slower each run, going to be a long week!!! @204 holy heck, outer banks and VA coast yeah go 50-75 miles further west with the center up over the IBX and that about worst case scenario for out there...at least its the west side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, downeastnc said: yeah go 50-75 miles further west with the center up over the IBX and that about worst case scenario for out there...at least its the west side Gets stronger and slower each run, 878mb at its strongest. Isn't that pushing the lowest pressure for the Atlantic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, JoshM said: Gets stronger and slower each run, 878mb at its strongest. Isn't that pushing the lowest pressure for the Atlantic? Fake model news. Do not believe! Just wait... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, JoshM said: Gets stronger and slower each run, 878mb at its strongest. Isn't that pushing the lowest pressure for the Atlantic? Yeah but the GFS all alone there, more reasonable to expect this to be 930-940 at the lowest once it gets north of Florida.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, JoshM said: Gets stronger and slower each run, 878mb at its strongest. Isn't that pushing the lowest pressure for the Atlantic? Currently 882 is the lowest pressure by Wilma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, Wow said: Fake model news. Do not believe! Just wait... Oh, I know. It's the same crap the 3k NAM pulled with Harvey. But it's still a trend of getting stronger each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xcool Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 not going happen GFS so next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yotaman Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 19 minutes ago, JoshM said: Gets stronger and slower each run, 878mb at its strongest. Isn't that pushing the lowest pressure for the Atlantic? I saw that as was like LOL, highly doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Today's GEFS runs have all trended further SW towards Bahama's and EC...and slower. Wish I knew how to make a gif plotting that. Also consistent with blunting the +PNA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 hour ago, xcool said: not going happen GFS so next nostrasdamous? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xcool Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: nostrasdamous? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 The GFS ens mean is about worst case scenario for NC ugh.....put that 240 plot over central PA and thats about how it would probably actually play out assuming it was right at landfall.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Boy, seeing some of those Hugo-like tracks make me wish Ray Boylan was still around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 11 minutes ago, Wow said: Boy, seeing some of those Hugo-like tracks make me wish Ray Boylan was still around. Or Bob Peterson or Larry Sprinkle! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Trend from today's GEFS runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Wow said: Boy, seeing some of those Hugo-like tracks make me wish Ray Boylan was still around. Seeing the Fran one scares the crap out of me. I hope it doesn't hit anyone, but that seems less likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 GFS is running Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 1 hour ago, Brick Tamland said: Seeing the Fran one scares the crap out of me. I hope it doesn't hit anyone, but that seems less likely. Yeah no one in NC likes that luckily its still just to early to say, the models might all make large shifts over the next few days as the trough comes ashore out west etc....plus they will run upper level wind recons and actual recons of the storm and that data will likely cause some changes.....GFS just started I wonder if it will tick SW again....if it does it probably gets into the sounds.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 at 96 hrs it looks like the GFS is close to if not hitting the NE islands, given the trends today I would seriously be sweating bullets if I was there...this thing is a strong Cat 4 when it gets there on all models if not a Cat 5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Between hours 90-96 Still moving more between W & WNW as opposed to 18Z same time frame movement of between WNW & NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 Definitely more SW at 114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Wow big shift west this run GFS almost in the Bahamas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 3 minutes ago, ncskywarn said: Definitely more SW at 114 Out to 132 it's farther SW than any of the past 10 runs...just NE of the southern Bahamas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Much more SW 18Z 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 3, 2017 Author Share Posted September 3, 2017 Slower too gonna be bad for SC/NC I fear..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 3, 2017 Share Posted September 3, 2017 138 still moving more WNW then NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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