Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Well there was model consensus for about...30 minutes. About 29 minutes longer than I expected at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 At 216 it is well off the NC coast line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: It also appears to be getting captured though this is might be going to be a wild finish...... Until we get all the players on the field this next week......enjoy model mayhem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 At this point there are more factors leading to an ots solution. .. the odds are stacked against this one making landfall is highly unlikely Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Wow not how I thought it would finish and major changes run to run on the Euro this go around....this is pretty unusual for the Euro to see wholesale changes like this run to run 06Z 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, timnc910 said: At this point there are more factors leading to an ots solution. .. the odds are stacked against this one making landfall is highly unlikely Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Well if by more you mean the Euro versus the other two models showing landfall then you would be right, ( and this is the first Euro run not showing a landfall), we disagree on the definition of the word "more".... I am not saying it cant or wont fish but I wouldnt call a OTS track highly likely at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 The Euro is not as good as it used to be in the 7-10 day range. I have noticed it changes a lot in that time period recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Still OTS at hour 240. It is nice and cool in the East though. Like many have said all the cards are still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, timnc910 said: At this point there are more factors leading to an ots solution. .. the odds are stacked against this one making landfall is highly unlikely Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Yep...that Euro run falls right along with the 0z EPS mean too. Odd are going up for the Bahamas maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 The Euro had that monster trough I was talking about several days ago, with the storm approaching. Going to be hard for that trough, if real, not to beat down the western edge of the ridge and kick the storm out. Will the trough be that deep? We'll see. Hard to bet against troughs in September as well as overmodeled Atl ridges in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 4 minutes ago, packbacker said: Yep...that Euro run falls right along with the 0z EPS mean too. Odd are going up for the Bahamas maybe. Euro against the world. You got the euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Euro takes the general idea the GFS and CMC has with the trough and cutoff and goes ape**** with it lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, downeastnc said: Euro takes the general idea the GFS and CMC has with the trough and cutoff and goes ape**** with it lol.... Cutoff has to be one of the biggest effect on the path and they are the hardest things for models to predict! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 That's a very deep trough for early September standards I'm not sure I'd buy that quite yet but I have my own opinion what's been causing that lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 11 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Euro against the world. You got the euro? They are all pretty similar the Euro just takes the trough and drops a 1001 MB low in it north of Maine and that totally beats down the ridge, the GFS and CMC do not have that same strong low feature up north of Maine that the Euro has....lol ran out of room had to delete attachments look at the difference with that low over SE canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Wide right, thank god for this run. Hopefully a trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 5 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said: Euro against the world. You got the euro? EPS mean is tough to beat...not necessarily Op runs this far out. The EPS has been ticking NE for several runs now. Let's face it...GFS/GEFS doesn't have the greatest track record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 28 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Wide right, thank god for this run. Hopefully a trend. long ways to go yet. I don't put much stock in models that show cutoff lows that form 7 to 9 days out. besides, the always....*cough*..."reliable" 12z jma says hold on a sec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, Lookout said: long ways to go yet. I don't put much stock in models that show cutoff lows that form 7 to 9 days out. besides, the always....*cough*..."reliable" 12z jma says hold on a sec. I love the JMA! It's like the summertime DGEX! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 12z EPS says Hugo or bust! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 7 minutes ago, Wow said: 12z EPS says Hugo or bust! lol That's a pretty wild spread. Strange day of model runs honestly...gfs/cmc look more threatening while their respective ensemble spread becomes larger but at the same time maybe more threatening. OTOH, The euro becomes less threatening while it's ensemble spread is larger too but overall less threatening. Things really haven't gotten a lot clearer today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 yeah if anything its going the wrong way, bottom line is everything is pretty much still on the table from Central Fl north....and until we get to mid week there will be a lot of fine tuning with regards to the trough pattern over the US, we are still at the earliest talking about Sunday next week for landfall and thats if it comes into the Carolinas.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 59 minutes ago, NC_hailstorm said: That's a very deep trough for early September standards I'm not sure I'd buy that quite yet but I have my own opinion what's been causing that lately. This! It is very rare we see a trough at this time of the year really dig this deep and sweep all the way through. The current forecast would be out of the norm for this time of the year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 37 minutes ago, Wow said: 12z EPS says Hugo or bust! lol The cluster making landfall into lower SE matches one of the GEFS clusters, GEFS just lacks the wide right cluster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 16 minutes ago, packbacker said: The cluster making landfall into lower SE matches one of the GEFS clusters, GEFS just lacks the wide right cluster. I wonder how many of those EPS members, or GEFS GEPS ens for that matter missing wide right have that strong low over SE Canada like the OP run did...Euro was much stronger with this feature than the CMC and GFS. The CMC does have it more than the GFS just much later than the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 FLA Atlantic coast and SE coast in general still going to take a helluva beating from wave energy action for days. Just hope the evolution towards a miss and OTS for everyone remains the end point solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 If the trough is sharper and a bit further west over W Tenn. when it pulls out it's going to allow the W Atl ridge to nudge further west. The more extreme of this scenario the more threatening it is for Florida. If it's less sharp and further east, then the OTS scenarios are more likely. This is just a quick analysis of individual GEFS members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, Wow said: If the trough is sharper and a bit further west over W Tenn. when it pulls out it's going to allow the W Atl ridge to nudge further west. The more extreme of this scenario the more threatening it is for Florida. If it's less sharp and further east, then the OTS scenarios are more likely. This is just a quick analysis of individual GEFS members. Here's a better visual of what I mean... 12z GEFS member p001 at 120 hrs... (This one eventually hits GA/SC at 216 hrs) And here is p002 at 120 hrs... (This is OTS) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Well, looks like the models aren't getting any better yet with where Irma will go. I thought they were better with tropical systems than winter ones around here. Of course, Harvey didn't really show up until 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Thru 144 the GFS is pretty close to the last run a little less deep with the trough but not much....I think it might come further west this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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