buckeyefan1 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 52 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Looking at the vis. satellite the central dense overcast is very small. I wonder if that makes any difference in modeling verses a much larger system? I know that more intense hurricanes want to move polarward but do smaller area wise systems make a difference? Maybe not, an eyewall is an eyewall? Smaller systems are prone to larger fluctuations due to the effects of the surrounding conditions. She is modeled to become larger with each estimated erc. A lot of variables in regards to strength as usual, but the current short term track seems to be in excellent agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: CMC not to far off GFS track Was just about to say...it too has trended west. Looks like for the same reasons...also it too is further south over the next several days compared to last night's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Not really contributing to the discussion with this post, but some of the model depictions are pretty scary. We got moderate coastal flooding from PTC 10 couple days ago. Hampton Roads area is very prone to NE/N and even E winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Oh ****. I may not have time to sell our house in OBX, Irma may take care of it for us. Still watching closely but getting a tad uneasy here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Yep the idea of a cutoff someone in that area will prevent a OTS type path, the further SW that forms and moves the further south on the coast she comes in....lets see if the Euro hints at that as well....also I would bet the Euro/CMC pressures are much much more realistic....a 930-940 at this lat would be 120-135 mph probably and since the storm is not sheared it will have a large intact well formed core so even that will bring significant winds with it where ever it goes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 12 minutes ago, packbacker said: CMC not to far off GFS track Got a ridge building right over it.. thats going to push west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 hour ago, jburns said: Different canes mean different things in different parts of the state. Well, that was different. Nice graphic. Never seen before but speaks volumes. Got alot of family friends downeast, kid at uncw and alot of folks on this board frequent the coast alot for R&R. Trend each cycle yields more and more uneasiness. If this was a cat 1 or less wouldn't be so concerning since we expierence these episodes so much in NC. But this thing is gonna be in beast mode. I remember with Hugo the forward speed is what allowed it to tear everything asunder well inland wind wise. Floyd was so slow is what caused the biblical flooding plus coming in on top of saturated ground. Which we will have down east late next week as more mid week rain on order of a couple inches covers alot of area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 A lot of people in the main thread seem to think this is starting to lock in to a landfall but honestly trusting the models to have that trough evolution right in this range is nuts...the only thing we are sure of is this thing will make it to 65W cause we got great model agreement to that point after that it really is a crap shoot still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, downeastnc said: A lot of people in the main thread seem to think this is starting to lock in to a landfall but honestly trusting the models to have that trough evolution right in this range is nuts...the only thing we are sure of is this thing will make it to 65W cause we got great model agreement to that point after that it really is a crap shoot still. Indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 LC posted on social media that it is going up the Chesapeake as a possible hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 Just now, Avdave said: LC posted on social media that it is going up the Chesapeake and making landfall there So stupid for anyone much less a professional met to make such a call at this stage.....finally looks like the ERC is done and a eye is stabilizing on the loops she should start expanding in size as well. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-rb-long.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nchighcountrywx Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 My hunch is just offshore as of now but what do any of us know with 8 days to go? Trough will be what to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 8 minutes ago, downeastnc said: So stupid for anyone much less a professional met to make such a call at this stage.....finally looks like the ERC is done and a eye is stabilizing on the loops she should start expanding in size as well. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/flash-rb-long.html Ok I misquoted what he said, he was showing the possibility of a hit in the Delmarva area from what some of the models were showing. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 As expected GFS ensembles go south/west bringing GA and SC coasts back in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 From Ryan M. on twitter: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 For what it is worth the 12Z HWRF is quite different once it gets to the islands much more west this run puts the NE islands ( Barbuda, Anguilla, Saint Martin etc) in the main core with strong TS conditions at the least....still has a while to finish out but a definite SW trend with it the last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 HWRF at 12Z quite a bit west of previous run and much closer to Euro/CMC than GFS 12Z center 22N 69.2W 06Z had it at 22.5N 66.2W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Meanwhile.... the NHC tropical outlook brings "Jose" up to a 70% chance of development. Perhaps if Irma develops are large outflow it would prohibit Jose from developing. Not sure how much spacing in between but at 240 hours the GFS has Jose in the vicinity of Hispaniola heading westbound... Busy September inbound... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 39 minutes ago, packfan98 said: From Ryan M. on twitter: Compared to yesterday's 12z run...per Ryan M twitter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, downeastnc said: HWRF at 12Z quite a bit west of previous run and much closer to Euro/CMC than GFS 12Z center 22N 69.2W 06Z had it at 22.5N 66.2W Big euro run coming up to see if it too trends west. But its pretty big Even if it stays the course. Speaking of trends, the gfs ensembles spread has actually increased quite a bit compared to the 0z and 06z runs. 12z run, then 06z, and 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, Lookout said: Big euro run coming up to see if it too trends west. But its pretty big Even if it stays the course. Speaking of trends, the gfs ensembles spread has actually increased quite a bit compared to the 0z and 06z runs. 12z run, then 06z, and 0z Surprising to see that many members that far SW...roughly a 1/3 it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 If the Euro stays similar to the 00Z then I would use a consensus of the 3 globals which would be probably the SC/NC border.....which is one of the highest landfalling points on the EC for a reason lol. Again though after day 7 its a lot of educated guessing on the models parts and while they get better every year its asking a lot of them to nail down the details of that trough this far out...its almost a shame we can see past day 7, it causes a lot of potentially unnecessary worrying lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 At 96hrs Euro has her in the NE Antilles....about on par for the last several runs so far maybe a touch SW of the last 2 runs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Don't know how this doesn't escape. Big low where a ridge is typically needed for landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 2 minutes ago, packbacker said: Don't know how this doesn't escape. Big low where a ridge is typically needed for landfall. I believe many of the gfs members were indicating a partial phase and capture. You could see it take a drastic nw turn onto land instead of recurving ots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 3 minutes ago, packbacker said: Don't know how this doesn't escape. Big low where a ridge is typically needed for landfall. The upper air pattern changes almost every run on every model! This is going to be a tough one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 1 minute ago, mackerel_sky said: The upper air pattern changes almost every run on every model! This is going to be a tough one! Yep....though the Op GFS/Euro aren't that far apart at day 7....guess some agreement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 yeah through 144 hrs all the models are close really within a 100-150 miles of each other probably its what happens after that where it all goes to crap..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 This run may take it right out to see. A big jump due north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 2, 2017 Author Share Posted September 2, 2017 It also appears to be getting captured though this is might be going to be a wild finish...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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