Met1985 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 It seems like Irma is regaining some strength with the center moving a bit away from the Cuban coastline. You can see the cloud tops start to really tower. One thing that there are no absolutes with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 4:09 PM, Met1985 said: Yeah I remembered that storm well. We had a ton of rainfall and the rivers flooded a lot. Currently it looks like our rainfall number have been going to a lot as the storm looks to move further west from us. Expand 90 mph gusts , as the Euro has been showing the last few runs, would be a disaster for ATL and NGa, IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 4:34 PM, mackerel_sky said: 90 mph gusts , as the Euro has been showing the last few runs, would be a disaster for ATL and NGa, IMO Expand Oh yeah no doubt it would be. Talking about here in the mountains currently the rainfall for us seems to be trending down according to the latest GFS run. The winds look pretty strong up here also. 50 to 60 MPH. Still this storm has a long way to go. We could have good trends and some bad trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Also you can clearly see the center is moving off the coast. The longer this thing has to get her act together the worst its going to be when she makes another landfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 She is going to go beast mode before land fall. 175 MPH per GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 4:43 PM, No snow for you said: She is going to go beast mode before land fall. 175 MPH per GFS. Expand Oh no! That's catastrophic, if it were to be right! Especially with everyone saying its " only" going to be a cat 3 at landfall! And the stronger it gets before landfall, should translate to stronger winds for us down the line!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 4:43 PM, No snow for you said: She is going to go beast mode before land fall. 175 MPH per GFS. Expand Yeah it seems like according to the GFS rapid strengthening is going to take place. You can already see that as the center moves off the coast of Cuba. Also to note the Euro had Irma going further into Cuba but as we are seeing that is wrong. will be very interesting with the next euro update coming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Akeem the African Dream Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 not expecting more than a 75 mph gust here at worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Starting to get her act together now and starting to pull out into open water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 4:48 PM, mackerel_sky said: Oh no! That's catastrophic, if it were to be right! Especially with everyone saying its " only" going to be a cat 3 at landfall! And the stronger it gets before landfall, should translate to stronger winds for us down the line!? Expand Still a long way to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Looks like she is moving due NW currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_hailstorm Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Ukie has it off Cuba in 3-6 hours,same track as last run but maybe a bit more in SW GA as it moves up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 4:51 PM, Met1985 said: Looks like she is moving due NW currently. Expand Most were thinking it was going to ride the Cuba coast until tonight! This is going to be trouble! RI possibly coming up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2017 Author Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 3:59 PM, LithiaWx said: Opal in 1995 was a disaster here in Atlanta. The amount of property damage from the tress that fell was very costly. Thousands of trees and power lines went down in the metro. Schools were closed for a few days afterwards. It was bad bro. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Opal Expand If Irma can recover and she can stay west of Florida and hit up north then you will have issues Opal was going 25 mph at landfall so she got up to ATL quick, wind gust in the ATL metro where low to mid 50's so it doesnt take much wind to drop a lot of trees. The high in the NE is a interesting factor and its hard to tell just how much it will pack the gradient. She looks to be going NNW at the moment and this is even sooner than the models predicted if this isnt a wobble then this will give her a chance at Cat 4 again...if she gets a more N than W component in her track now that might but S FL and Miami back in danger of getting east side of the eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FLweather Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Not sure if it's wobbling or starting a turn more towards the north. But a new eye forming north away from Cuba's coast line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Turning? Or a wobble? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 She's firing back up. Hunker down Keys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2017 Author Share Posted September 9, 2017 Lets see if this is another bounce off the coast like she did last night and then wobbles back west or if this is her new heading, if its a actual direction change its probably worse case for Florida....this lets her get away from the coast and have the most time over water before the shear picks up....however this heading would put her more inline for a landfall farther east and put Islamorada and Key Largo in the east eyewall....heck she could even go more north and really screw Miami up like the models had a few days ago...but it would lessen the threat up the west coast of Florida a lot...its almost like she is a living thing fighting to stay off the coast and survive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tyler Penland Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 This may have been mentioned but the new GFS is about 12 hours faster than last night's euro bringing the wind core into North GA. Euro moves it in around 6z Tuesday with her gfs around 12z Monday. Sent from my SM-G930R7 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2017 Author Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 4:57 PM, Buddy said: Turning? Or a wobble? Expand you watch this loop and see how her outflow flattens out on the NW side where the strong SW shear is and you got to wonder how the heck she is gonna make it much further west.....the interaction with Cuba may have weakened her enough to prevent her from being able to push her way as far west as models have her going...and we may see a bit sharper north turn...shear is close as is dry air her best bet is to run N/NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 5:05 PM, downeastnc said: Lets see if this is another bounce off the coast like she did last night and then wobbles back west or if this is her new heading, if its a actual direction change its probably worse case for Florida....this lets her get away from the coast and have the most time over water before the shear picks up....however this heading would put her more inline for a landfall farther east and put Islamorada and Key Largo in the east eyewall....heck she could even go more north and really screw Miami up like the models had a few days ago...but it would lessen the threat up the west coast of Florida a lot...its almost like she is a living thing fighting to stay off the coast and survive. Expand That's what Hurricane's do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 4:57 PM, Buddy said: Turning? Or a wobble? Expand Is she making a N turn? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 5:10 PM, downeastnc said: you watch this loop and see how her outflow flattens out on the NW side where the strong SW shear is and you got to wonder how the heck she is gonna make it much further west.....the interaction with Cuba may have weakened her enough to prevent her from being able to push her way as far west as models have her going...and we may see a bit sharper north turn...shear is close as is dry air her best bet is to run N/NE Expand TBH watching the shear maps and wondering when the turn would start. UKM/ECMWF have been forecasting a sharp knee for days now, and we're approaching the near window for that, no? As the eye comes off the coast of Cuba it DOES appear to get a bit of intensification going for a couple frames but the next few frames will tell the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2017 Author Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 5:21 PM, Buddy said: TBH watching the shear maps and wondering when the turn would start. UKM/ECMWF have been forecasting a sharp knee for days now, and we're approaching the near window for that, no? As the eye comes off the coast of Cuba it DOES appear to get a bit of intensification going for a couple frames but the next few frames will tell the tale. Expand She will never recover the entire circulation the damage is done, but she could reform as a small intense hurricane and even be Cat 4/5 but luckily she will probably have a much smaller wind field. what Florida needs is a ERC in 6-8 hrs that would probably save them from a Cat 4/5 hit, already looks like a west wobble again.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 4:57 PM, Buddy said: Turning? Or a wobble? Expand I think it's a turn, it looks like it's getting much better organized !! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 5:26 PM, downeastnc said: She will never recover the entire circulation the damage is done, but she could reform as a small intense hurricane and even be Cat 4/5 but luckily she will probably have a much smaller wind field. what Florida needs is a ERC in 6-8 hrs that would probably save them from a Cat 4/5 hit, already looks like a west wobble again.... Expand Back to 150kts? I think its probably unlikely given the sheer she's running into, but, CERTAINLY intensifying Edit: odd, go direct to the image here: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/11L/imagery/avn_lalo-animated.gif The post image is showing almost the exact inverse of what the direct link shows. Maybe its a browser cache thing on my end or something, but shes past Lat80 and showing much more red in real time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 5:26 PM, downeastnc said: She will never recover the entire circulation the damage is done, but she could reform as a small intense hurricane and even be Cat 4/5 but luckily she will probably have a much smaller wind field. what Florida needs is a ERC in 6-8 hrs that would probably save them from a Cat 4/5 hit, already looks like a west wobble again.... Expand Whuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 9, 2017 Author Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 5:28 PM, 10below said: Whuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuut? Expand What confused you.....post like the above are pretty pointless if you want to discuss the storm and what it is may or may not be doing lets do it but come on next time you start to make a post like the one above......just stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 5:30 PM, downeastnc said: What confused you.....post like the above are pretty pointless if you want to discuss the storm and what it is may or may not be doing lets do it but come on next time you start to make a post like the one above......just stop. Expand It confuses me because you flip flopped. 2 hours ago you said it would be a Cat 1 or TS when it hit Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 5:26 PM, downeastnc said: She will never recover the entire circulation the damage is done, but she could reform as a small intense hurricane and even be Cat 4/5 but luckily she will probably have a much smaller wind field. what Florida needs is a ERC in 6-8 hrs that would probably save them from a Cat 4/5 hit, already looks like a west wobble again.... Expand I think it can make 4 or 5 again but I tend to agree on the wind field. I don't think this will be anywhere near as big as initially thought at least for hurricane force winds any longer. I'm surprised though how much improved looking it is in the last 2 hours. While I did anticipate it would weaken 25 mph or so over land I didn't think it would look that beat up as it was about to come off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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