senc30 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 2:15 AM, JoshM said: FWIW, NAM is slower than 18z thru hour 30 @ Hour 36, it's north ea I cst of it's 18z position Expand Not a NAM fan but it did pick up the north and east track before most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Miami can take a deep breath on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 That dang NAM is acting crazy. Well north and east of the previous run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 2:29 AM, senc30 said: That dang NAM is acting crazy. Well north and east of the previous run. Expand Would love to see that verify, spares south Florida entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 2:27 AM, JoshM said: NAM @ 48 misses miami, center stays off shore, track appears Due North to my eye. Expand These models (..NAM) are depicting this storm like a yo yo. Each run will drive you mad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 2:28 AM, JoshM said: Miami can take a deep breath on this run Expand But will the NW recurve still happen?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Hour 54 and the ole NAM is north and east by quiet a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 2:31 AM, mackerel_sky said: But will the NW recurve still happen?? Expand Wouldn't that be funny if the damn thing goes OTS and never landfalls in the US. Just like winter time, all dressed up for nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 2:24 AM, bigjohndc said: The Colonial Pipeline has been fully operational for nearly two full days, refining capacity is not fully operational in the Gulf yet, but close. There are only two counties in NC reporting anything close to shortages. Now evacuees will stretch supplies in Georgia and Florida, but lets not confuse issues. Florida doesn't get any supply from the Colonial and NC specifically has been getting shipments via the Port of Wilmington. We don't need fear mongering in areas where there aren't real shortages. Expand Just passing along what I was told this weekend. Pipeline 1 was gonna be shut down and didnt know how long, which is the one we use for auto gas, 2 I beleive carries the diesel, jet fuel stuff. Anyway glad to hear and sounds like your in the know line 1 must be runing. It suplies like half the auto fuel on the east coast or my neck of the woods up into MA, NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
10below Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 2:32 AM, JoshM said: Wouldn't that be funny if the damn thing goes OTS and never landfalls in the US. Just like winter time, all dressed up for nothing. Expand Uh that would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 2:31 AM, mackerel_sky said: But will the NW recurve still happen?? Expand It should as the trough retreats quickly and the ridge builds in. It's when the influence of the trough ends and the NW bend back inland begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Almost looked like a NE job at 57 then back north at 60 on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 1:31 AM, Iceagewhereartthou said: Last couple of hours She has become much more symmetrical again, and pressure has dropped a little again, that can't be good. Hard to imagine a worse look for the state of Florida. Anyone know the records for most hours above 175 mph? Expand As of 11AM today, Irma had 185mph winds for 37 hours, longest any cyclone around the globe has maintained that intensity on record. Previous record was Haiyan in the W Pacific at 24 hours. And as of 5PM, Irma had been a CAT 5 storm for 66 consecutive hours. Satellite era (1966) record for Atlantic was 42 hours (Hurricanes Mitch and David). Info from @philklotzbach. Irma is going to have one heck of a storm surge given the strong winds, long build up of waters, and large size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Hour 63, looks like it's starting to turn ever so slightly. EDIT: Nope, still moving OTS @ 69 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dunkman Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Maximum FL winds on this pass (141 kts) are almost 30 miles from the center. That's crazy, it's like a 60+ mile wide buzz saw now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 At 69, I swear it looks like the NAM is gonna go OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigjohndc Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 2:34 AM, NCSNOW said: Just passing along what I was told this weekend. Pipeline 1 was gonna be shut down and didnt know how long, which is the one we use for auto gas, 2 I beleive carries the diesel, jet fuel stuff. Anyway glad to hear and sounds like your in the know line 1 must be runing. It suplex like half the auto fuel on the east coast or my neck of the woods up into MA, NE. Expand Some of that was true over the weekend not now, but the post you quoted was from August 31st its September 7th. Just so you know Randolph County is reporting no public or public safety shortages. The frustration and why this is important for Irma is there are plenty of people that will need gas in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. If people panic buy thinking there is a shortage it can actually tighten supply for the people that need it. Especially if delivery is impacted by power loss or roads are impassable after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 NE Trough + phasing with Irma = NAM on crack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 2:45 AM, JoshM said: NE Trough + phasing with Irma = NAM on crack Expand For the love of all things great, I hope it's not on crack this time and for ONCE gets it's right!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 2:45 AM, senc30 said: For the love of all things great, I hope it's not on crack this time and for ONCE gets it's right!!!! Expand Friends don't let friends get NAM'd. In fact, we need a support group in the winter time for people who were NAM'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 At 81 looks like it may make landfall on the eastern outer Banks or may just miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 Yep, the return of the idea that the trough will hang back and pull Irma out the sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 2:47 AM, JoshM said: Friends don't let friends get NAM'd. In fact, we need a support group in the winter time for people who were NAM'd. Expand I'm not getting NAM'd I'm just hoping against hope!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 2:47 AM, Wow said: Yep, the return of the idea that the trough will hang back and pull Irma out the sea. Expand Then people on the outer banks have to evacuate, that'll be fun. I'm sure we're in for some more changes as we approach the 11th hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 2:47 AM, Wow said: Yep, the return of the idea that the trough will hang back and pull Irma out the sea. Expand Must be really hanging back. That's a magnificently huge jump from one run to the next and a strong departure from all other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 2:42 AM, bigjohndc said: Some of that was true over the weekend not now, but the post you quoted was from August 31st its September 7th. Just so you know Randolph County is reporting no public or public safety shortages. The frustration and why this is important for Irma is there are plenty of people that will need gas in Florida, Georgia, and South Carolina. If people panic buy thinking there is a shortage it can actually tighten supply for the people that need it. Especially if delivery is impacted by power loss or roads are impassable after the storm. Expand Awesome news. Never check a public reporting of shortages, never occured to look for one. Just going by the yellow bags on the pumps. Maybe it's just a hiccup from what happened this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 2:49 AM, Cold Rain said: Must be really hanging back. That's a magnificently huge jump from one run to the next and a strong departure from all other guidance. Expand We're going into NAM la la land by the time it starts doing the insanity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 NAM= Fish Storm!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 That was a bizarre run. Talk about a significant jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted September 8, 2017 Share Posted September 8, 2017 On 9/8/2017 at 2:53 AM, Met1985 said: That was a bizarre run. Talk about a significant jump. Expand Superman couldn't make that kinda jump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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