BIG FROSTY Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 I say when push comes to shove, Irma will move over Eastern NC probably east of Raleigh!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 12:31 AM, BIG FROSTY said: I say when push comes to shove, Irma will move over Eastern NC probably east of Raleigh!!! Expand That's what worries me. I said it several pages back. I've seen this dog and pony show before. Considering I'm 30 miles north of Wilmington and 25 miles NE of topsail beach, I don't even want to let myself go there. After the run from '96-'01 and several since, along with Matthew last year, I can't let myself go there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 12:31 AM, BIG FROSTY said: I say when push comes to shove, Irma will move over Eastern NC probably east of Raleigh!!! Expand Nah. Ridge building in. Probably end up farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 This makes me kinda worried Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 12:35 AM, Cold Rain said: Nah. Ridge building in. Probably end up farther west. Expand When does the ridge build in? That's the key question. Ridge was supposed to build with Matthew and didn't. Remember them talking about ridges with Fran, Bonnie, and Floyd. For once, I want a ridge to build that helps us here. Hopefully this time it does and you are right. If you are, beers on me!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 18z and newest guidance (0z) comparison. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 12:35 AM, Cold Rain said: Nah. Ridge building in. Probably end up farther west. Expand Ridge got to be timed right, In order to push it west...... I'm just guessing it don't work out that way!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 12:40 AM, Disc said: 18z and newest guidance (0z) comparison. Expand Even tighter cluster over the upstate! Where is Shetley! We need his expertise! We could be without power for many days, IF that pass happened Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 12:41 AM, BIG FROSTY said: Ridge got to be timed right, In order to push it west...... I'm just guessing it don't work out that way!!! Expand Only 5/6 more-ish days to find out. The 0z models above did lessen the bend a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 33 hours and counting as a cat 5!! Previous record: 18 hours, Hurricane Allen in 1980! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 909 extrap, but the IR loop looks just a bit warmer upstairs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 12:43 AM, mackerel_sky said: Even tighter cluster over the upstate! Where is Shetley! We need his expertise! We could be without power for many days, IF that pass happened Expand The spread looks less on 00z -- Less of a NW turn too. They will continue to flip flop, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 12:45 AM, Cold Rain said: 909 extrap, but the IR loop looks just a bit warmer upstairs. Expand Yeah, they won't shut up on TWC about ERC! And it's two eyewalls. Probably a little hiccup until it's complete! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 12:45 AM, mackerel_sky said: 33 hours and counting as a cat 5!! Previous record: 18 hours, Hurricane Allen in 1980! Expand You mean consecutive hours, right? I know that the record for a single hurricane is 72 hours (Ivan) but it was non consecutive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 12:03 AM, NC_hailstorm said: Hugo was moving NW at 35-40 mph,big wind maker. Expand Thought it was more like 20-25 mph.. traveled from Charleston to Hickory (around 250 miles) in 9 hours. Definitely increasing in speed. Irma will be slower as it gets blocked by the ridge before getting quickly dragged east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 12:48 AM, Disc said: The spread looks less on 00z -- Less of a NW turn too. They will continue to flip flop, though. Expand It looks like more of a spread on the 0z than the 18z to me. Am I completely missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BIG FROSTY Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 12:49 AM, mackerel_sky said: Yeah, they won't shut up on TWC about ERC! And it's two eyewalls. Probably a little hiccup until it's complete! Expand Mack you will probably change over to sleet at the end of your .07 inches of rain............ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ThePhotoGuy Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 We were planning our vacation to the Outer Banks (Nags Head), NC on Saturday. We haven't decided if we are going to make the trip down due to the storm. Any thoughts based on the potential track on what it would be like? Based on what I have seen maybe some rain and some wind but nothing to significant? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 12:53 AM, StormyClearweather said: It looks like more of a spread on the 0z than the 18z to me. Am I completely missing something? Expand Yes -- I've had no sleep. I meant to say the 00z had more spread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 12:55 AM, ThePhotoGuy said: We were planning our vacation to the Outer Banks (Nags Head), NC on Saturday. We haven't decided if we are going to make the trip down due to the storm. Any thoughts based on the potential track on what it would be like? Based on what I have seen maybe some rain and some wind but nothing to significant? Expand Strong wind and a few tornadoes. Sounds like fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 12:55 AM, ThePhotoGuy said: We were planning our vacation to the Outer Banks (Nags Head), NC on Saturday. We haven't decided if we are going to make the trip down due to the storm. Any thoughts based on the potential track on what it would be like? Based on what I have seen maybe some rain and some wind but nothing to significant? Expand I hope for your sake you wait. If it does move north like the majority do and hits, let's say topsail beach, your "some rain" and "some wind" will turn into a nightmare you don't want to be a part of. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 12:55 AM, ThePhotoGuy said: We were planning our vacation to the Outer Banks (Nags Head), NC on Saturday. We haven't decided if we are going to make the trip down due to the storm. Any thoughts based on the potential track on what it would be like? Based on what I have seen maybe some rain and some wind but nothing to significant? Expand Pack a umbrella and life insurance policy/will! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 12:55 AM, ThePhotoGuy said: We were planning our vacation to the Outer Banks (Nags Head), NC on Saturday. We haven't decided if we are going to make the trip down due to the storm. Any thoughts based on the potential track on what it would be like? Based on what I have seen maybe some rain and some wind but nothing to significant? Expand Honestly, you'll probably be fine. Just obviously keep an eye on the track in the next few days If it tracks the way it's currently forecast, you'll just get some rain and wind like you said. If the track starts to bend NE in the next day or so, then watch out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
timnc910 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Gefs means from 12z to 18z Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
senc30 Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 1:45 AM, timnc910 said: Gefs means from 12z to 18z Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Expand That's a rather large change. More coming to NC and upstate SC. Is nice seeing some OTS show up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/7/2017 at 1:45 AM, timnc910 said: Gefs means from 12z to 18z Sent from my SM-G900R4 using Tapatalk Expand A good bit fewer tracks that drive WNW into KY/TN also! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Regan Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 That image abovenof the 18z makes me nervous even. That black line. Shivers. That's coming right at me in Raleigh. This is why I can't shake the feeling that I can't trust anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ser Pounce Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 So wherever you evacuate to, the hurricane is sure to follow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thess Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Yep, screw that black line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 On 9/6/2017 at 11:55 PM, YetAnotherRDUGuy said: Due to this high, can we be reasonably certain that any trend NE would be limited? I'm asking because it seems like so many of these storms end up trending further to the East at the last minute. It's also why NC has been hit so many times in recent history as opposed to SC/GA. Is the OTS scenario a pipe dream at this point? Expand Well usually the right of track bias we see with north moving TC off the SE coast is because of the normal westerlies...almost all the storms that I can remember coming up the SE coast tended to be right of track due to that...this looks to be a exception once the NE high comes into play....I would not be surprised to see Irma moving N or even NNE for a time as she comes up the coast...the models even hint at it....so depending on how/when that high moves in and out for that matter will be what gets her going more NW....if the high is weaker or faster then she will go further north and stay mostly NNW or N after landfall, if its stronger slower etc she will get pushed NW well well inland and stall a bit...the models have been kinda all over with it, but they all have the high and chances of a escape completely OTS is probably fairly slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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