mulen Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Good afternoon locked and loaded just in case Matthew spared us last year hope for the best and be prepared for the worst .see ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 Euro a smidge north in the NE islands....maybe 30-40 miles.....could be a big difference in those islands though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 72 hr Euro plot balls on the 00Z plot from last run....not much difference with the trough maybe a touch deeper up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 96 Euro is NE of 00Z run by 50-60 miles, the setup is a mess it has a low over the Bay of Campeche, Hurricane Jose behind it, the trough to the north and ridges over TX and the ATL I dont see how this thing does not go hard north but i guess we will see....I mean its the only place for it to go.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 120 right on the coast of Cuba ( I really thought it would be more north this plot ).......still north of Cuba a tiny bit instead of over it like at 00Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 6:17 PM, downeastnc said: 96 Euro is NE of 00Z run by 50-60 miles, the setup is a mess it has a low over the Bay of Campeche, Hurricane Jose behind it, the trough to the north and ridges over TX and the ATL I dont see how this thing does not go hard north but i guess we will see....I mean its the only place for it to go.. Expand Still booking it to the west at 120.....it wants to run it west as far as possible before any turns happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 GFS and EURO in pretty good agreement up to 120.....that doesn't happen often Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 144 looks to be right over Miami....so slight shifts north early in the 12Z translate into later north turn than 00Z and hits Miami versus 70 miles offshore like 00Z....gotta love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 Tropical Tidbits must have a lot of traffic cause I keep getting gateway errors lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 Now off Florida heading for SC/NC 937mb gonna hit close to where last run did I bet.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tarheel17 Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 168 due east of Cape Canaveral, heading north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Heading North at 168 maybe even a touch East of North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 Landfalls Charleston or a little south of there... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 946MB coming onshore near Edisto at 186. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 192 turned NW LF GA-SC border. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 So the lesson here is everyone from Fl to NC is still in the game....on to the 18Z GFS.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 6:43 PM, downeastnc said: Landfalls Charleston or a little south of there... Expand Looks like Savannah/HHI to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 6:43 PM, Queencitywx said: 946MB coming onshore near Edisto at 186. Expand overall that is remarkable agreement between the euro and gfs at such a long range as far as landfall goes there. but the direction afterwards is up in the air. the euro doesn't have any hint of the trough that the gfs sees moving into the plains/great lakes...which causes irma to head quickly nne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 12MB off of what Hugo made landfall at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 6:43 PM, StormyClearweather said: Wow. Expand Does not look like it can go north or east either. Not sure where it can go IF this verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 6:47 PM, Lookout said: overall that is remarkable agreement between the euro and gfs at such a long range as far as landfall goes there. but the direction afterwards is up in the air. the euro doesn't have any hint of the trough that the gfs sees moving into the plains/great lakes...which causes irma to head quickly nne. Expand That is my biggest concern. We have much less of a threat this far inland if it isnt picked up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 6:47 PM, jshetley said: Does not look like it can go north or east either. Not sure where it can go IF this verifies. Expand Looks to just keep going north, per the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jshetley Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 6:50 PM, StormyClearweather said: Looks to just keep going north, per the Euro. Expand Oh boy. That track would be awful for much of SC and NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Ryan MaueVerified account @RyanMaue 1m1 minute ago The timing of the northward turn (if it occurs) is based on how far west Hurricane #Irma tracks. Very difficult forecast in 6-days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Euro shows close to or at hurricane gusts over most of the immediate CLT metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 6:48 PM, Queencitywx said: That is my biggest concern. We have much less of a threat this far inland if it isnt picked up. Expand Still would be a lot of rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 Everyone knows how to read AFD's, but this piece from GSP's seems especially important today: Quote This potential Fujiwhara interaction is the reason why Irma has displayed a westward jog inland thus far, but if the intensity and the position of the upper low shift, major track shifts could result. I will mention that the westward jog displayed on previous model runs would be extremely climatologically unusual for a landfalling southeast tropical cyclone. Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 The extra balloons data will be in by 00Z tonight, this should help with trough placement and strength, and the HH and G4 missions will also help, so by the 12Z runs Wed we should be getting some hard agreement on landfall location on the US I hope.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncskywarn Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 On 9/4/2017 at 7:26 PM, downeastnc said: The extra balloons data will be in by 00Z tonight, this should help with trough placement and strength, and the HH and G4 missions will also help, so by the 12Z runs Wed we should be getting some hard agreement on landfall location on the US I hope.... Expand Maybe even a little sooner G-IV is out there now flying around Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.