Hurricane Irma

[Solak]

Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue 34m34 minutes ago

 

 

Uncertainty still too large at Day 6-7 to do better than coin-flip on direction of Hurricane #Irma ... hopefully Aircraft Recon data helps

[mackerel_sky]

  On 9/3/2017 at 8:11 PM, Solak said:

Ryan Maue‏Verified account @RyanMaue 1h1 hour ago

 

 

In just over 5-days, hopefully for U.S. interests, we are watching enormous Hurricane #Irma putting on the brakes & turning North.

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Wishcasting from JB's friend! 

[Solak]

Levi Cowan‏ @TropicalTidbits 6m6 minutes ago

 

 

First recon pass into #Irma found a pressure near ~958mb with estimated surface winds of 113mph in the NE eyewall. This is a powerful storm.

[downeastnc]

The models seem to be a little to deep into the Bahamas you would expect that turn to be a bit smoother given the steering....if it ran as modeled that would pretty much be worse case path and strength for the Bahamas...its almost as if the GFS tried to make sure it hit all the islands with the core....

[downeastnc]

LOL 879 MB  at 198 looks to be about to wipe out the entire coast of NC, looks close to the 00Z Euro run from last night.....did I mention it has it at 879 MB lol. 

[packfan98]

I-95 Special it looks like on this run.

[downeastnc]

  On 9/3/2017 at 10:27 PM, packfan98 said:

I-95 Special it looks like on this run.

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This run would be pretty much worst case for MBY....Emerald Isle would probably be totally erased as would most of the beaches all the way to ILM....That landfall point is 68 miles south of my house. I would miss the center too the next frame is probably just west of me I would be on the east side of the center in the eyewall the entire time....no bueno.

[TPAwx]

I'm a block from the Bay and therefore in evac zone A, if it gets to that point, but as a FLA newbie have no idea if that's the same with an East approach?  This is going to be a nightmare for emergency management efforts.

[packbacker]

18z GEFS has 2 member's on the op track, roughly, but every other is well west.  Rest landfall into FL/GA/SC.  

[StormyClearweather]

[downeastnc]

  On 9/3/2017 at 11:20 PM, packbacker said:

18z GEFS has 2 member's on the op track, roughly, but every other is well west.  Rest landfall into FL/GA/SC.  

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Yeah but that worries me too, just about every storm that hit here was "suppose" to hit there and the landfall point just kept moving up from Fl to Ga to SC etc.....still 2-3 days worth of model runs before we get into the 5 days range so it should move around some, I will be shocked if we dont get a few runs with Hugo type hits for SC etc. 

 Hell if this thing is on the GFS track 100 miles off NC coast Monday headed this way it still isnt a lock to hit,  I have seen them scoot east at the last second many times.....

[packbacker]

  On 9/3/2017 at 11:26 PM, downeastnc said:

Yeah but that worries me too, just about every storm that hit here was "suppose" to hit there and the landfall point just kept moving up from Fl to Ga to SC etc.....still 2-3 days worth of model runs before we get into the 5 days range so it should move around some, I will be shocked if we dont get a few runs with Hugo type hits for SC etc. 

 Hell if this thing is on the GFS track 100 miles off NC coast Monday headed this way it still isnt a lock to hit,  I have seen them scoot east at the last second many times.....

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Yep...agree.  I thought I would see the ensemble mean drift a little to the east.   It's only 6 days away from being on FL's doorstep, that's a long time for things to change but models should have some skill at day 6.

Both ensembles spit out of lot of landfalling members even with this subtle differences and seem to be in sync, relative, with the track of Irma.

 

 

[mackerel_sky]

The track on the gefs, is really not a Hugo like track. Hugo came in almost from due east to west, maybe Ese to WNW 

[yotaman]

  On 9/3/2017 at 10:36 PM, downeastnc said:

This run would be pretty much worst case for MBY....Emerald Isle would probably be totally erased as would most of the beaches all the way to ILM....That landfall point is 68 miles south of my house. I would miss the center too the next frame is probably just west of me I would be on the east side of the center in the eyewall the entire time....no bueno.

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Looks like I would be in the eastern eyewall on that run. The devastation would run from ILM all the way to Morehead and inland to Richmond.

[NCSNOW]

  On 9/3/2017 at 11:26 PM, downeastnc said:

Yeah but that worries me too, just about every storm that hit here was "suppose" to hit there and the landfall point just kept moving up from Fl to Ga to SC etc.....still 2-3 days worth of model runs before we get into the 5 days range so it should move around some, I will be shocked if we dont get a few runs with Hugo type hits for SC etc. 

 Hell if this thing is on the GFS track 100 miles off NC coast Monday headed this way it still isnt a lock to hit,  I have seen them scoot east at the last second many times.....

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So very true with both statements. It's like the norm preceeding every Carolina threat. Let's pray this thing finds a way to scoot east.  These north turns where it just slams on brakes and goes 90 degrees right aren't the norm. Usually it's more gradual, curvature

[mackerel_sky]

South trend continuing, Cuba may be in the cone by tomorrow!

[goldman75]

Trough is moving out much quicker too

[goldman75]

 Cuba landfall.  

[NCSNOW]

Gfs had this landfalling in New York City 2 days ago, now it's LF Cuba and possibly headed for GOM.

[John1122]

Crushes the Keys this run and is a cat 5 heading for Homestead/Miami from the south. Looking less and less likely that it misses the States unless it ends up missing to the south and goes Cuba to Yucatan.

[Met1985]

Well that is a cluster of a run. Not sure what to make of it...

[NCSNOW]

UKIE and Canadian bout the same. Getting clearer who's in the bullseye. Gfs sub 890 hitting Miami from south would outdo andrew.

 

 

 

[JoshM]

GFS said Evacuate the entire Southeast.

[mackerel_sky]

  On 9/4/2017 at 4:31 AM, NCSNOW said:

UKIE and Canadian bout the same. Getting clearer who's in the bullseye. Gfs sub 890 hitting Miami from south would outdo andrew.

 

 

 

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Some consensus! But that GFS run, FL, SC,NC= Doomsday stuff!

[Met1985]

  On 9/4/2017 at 4:31 AM, NCSNOW said:

UKIE and Canadian bout the same. Getting clearer who's in the bullseye. Gfs sub 890 hitting Miami from south would outdo andrew.

 

 

 

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I'm not sure we are really any closer to knowing a landfall point really.  A lot of changes to come I think whether good or bad.

[NCSNOW]

Lookout Lookout. Lol 960 sitting right over Athens GA Tuesday, while Miami looks like Hiroshima redux.

[USCG RS]

  On 9/4/2017 at 4:34 AM, mackerel_sky said:

Some consensus! But that GFS run, FL, SC,NC= Doomsday stuff!

I would throw out that run. Red flags everywhere

[Met1985]

That would be some horrible flooding in SC and the mountains. That would be a very bad situation.

[mackerel_sky]

  On 9/4/2017 at 4:36 AM, USCG RS said:

  On 9/4/2017 at 4:34 AM, mackerel_sky said:

Some consensus! But that GFS run, FL, SC,NC= Doomsday stuff!
 

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I would throw out that run. Red flags everywhere

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But the UKMET and CMC....

[NCSNOW]

  On 9/4/2017 at 4:34 AM, Met1985 said:

I'm not sure we are really any closer to knowing a landfall point really.  A lot of changes to come I think whether good or bad.

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Trend is definitely south and west. Getting harder for Irma to miss landfalling on PR, The Shredder or Cuba and South Florida before heading pole ward per model trends , espeacilly ensembles. Can always reverse but this trend has been stepping in this direction for past 3 to 4 cycles now.