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September 2017 temperature forecast contest

Roger Smith

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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The contest enters a new season with DonSutherland.1 edging a little further ahead of RJay overall and in the original six, meanwhile RJay has the western lead ahead of some guy we never heard of before. 

The clallenge is to predict temperature anomalies (in F deg) relative to 1981-2010 normal (average) values for these nine locations:

___ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

Deadline for entries without late penalties is 06z, Friday September 1st. Penalties of 1% per 2h late then apply for 36h and after that it would be 1% per hour. Make a note to yourself to enter before you disappear for Labor Day weekend festivities. 

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Roger Smith

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Table of entries for September 2017

 

FORECASTER _____________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

 

rainsucks _________________+3.0 _+2.5 _+1.8 ___ +3.5 _+1.0 _--0.5 ____ +0.3 _--0.7 __0.0

SD ______________________+1.0 _+1.0 _+0.5 ___ +0.4 _+1.0 _+1.0 ____--1.0 _+1.0 _--0.5

wxallannj _________________+0.8 _+0.6 _--0.9 ___ --0.5 _+1.3 _--0.7 ____ +3.2 _+1.7 _+2.7

dmillz25 __________________+0.7 _--1.0 _--1.7 ___ --0.5 _+2.0 _+1.0 ____ +1.5 _+1.0 _+2.5

BKViking _________________ +0.3 _+0.2 _--0.2 ___ --1.7 _--0.8 _--0.2 ____ +3.0 _+1.2 _+2.8

Roger Smith ______________ +0.3 __0.0 _+0.1 ___ --0.7 _+1.0 _+1.1 ____ +3.5 _+2.0 _+4.2

 

Normal ___________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0 ______0.0 __0.0 __ 0.0

 

Tom _____________________--0.2 _--0.7 _--1.1 ___ --0.6 _--0.5 _--0.1 ____ +0.4 _+0.8 _+1.1

IntenseBlizzard 2014 ________--0.4 _--0.1 _+0.1 ____ 0.0 _--1.5 _+0.2 ____ +1.8 _+2.0 _+2.8

RJay _____________________--0.4 _--0.5 _--0.9 ___ --0.4 _--0.3 _--0.5 _____ 0.0 _+1.2 _+2.2

so_whats_happening _______ --0.5 _--0.6 _--0.8 ___ +0.4 _+0.2 _+0.6 ____ +0.8 _+1.1 _+1.3

 

Consensus ________________ --0.5 _--0.7 _--0.9 ___ --0.6 __0.0 _--0.1 ____ +1.5 _+1.4 _+2.8

 

H2O_Town__wx __ (-5%) ___ --0.6 _--0.9 _--0.9 ___--1.2 _--0.5 _+1.4 ____ +1.3 _+0.6 _+0.8 

hudsonvalley21 ____________ --0.7 _--1.2 _--0.7 ___ --0.6 __0.0 _--0.9 ____ +0.5 _+1.4 _+2.8

Damage in Tolland __________--0.9 _--1.0 _--1.2 ___ --1.4 _+2.0 _+2.7 ____ +1.4 _+2.1 _+2.0

wxdude64 ____ (-2%) _______--1.1 _--1.2 _--0.9 ___ --0.7 _+0.2 _+0.3 ____--1.4 _--0.2 _+2.1

DonSutherland.1 ___________ --1.2 _--0.8 _--0.9 ___ --0.7 _--0.5 _--1.7 ____ +0.4 _+1.9 _+3.9

Neckbeard93 ______________ --1.3 _--1.0 _--0.3 ___ --0.9 _--1.1 _ --1.8 ____+1.9 _+2.4 _+3.9

Stebo ____________________--1.4 _--1.1 _--1.1 ___ --2.0 _--1.5 _--1.2 ____ +2.8 _+1.5 _+3.4

RodneyS _________________ --1.9 _--0.7 _--0.6 ____ 0.0 _ --2.8 _--0.8 ____ +2.8 _+1.4 _+4.0

 coldest _warmest

color coding for high and low forecasts refers to 15 regular entrants only, some others are more extreme and are underlined if so.

 

welcome to rainsucks and IntenseBlizzard2014, and welcome back H2O_Town__wx. :)

 

note: from now to end of 2017, Consensus is only based on 15 all-year or "regular" forecasters so that it will be 8th ranked forecast of those 15, and best scores, extreme forecasts will be awarded both full-field and within that group of regular entrants plus H2OTown_wx who had five months in the contest earlier. I am going back into earlier months to see if there are any additional best scores to be awarded on that same basis. 

 

 

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Roger Smith

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Seasonal Maxima for 2017 contest -- Updated scoring

Normal will sit this one out and consensus is the average rather than the median this time. Once this table appears, your entries are set, and have been cross-checked for accuracy of posting. Forecasts appear in the order of DCA then if tied, NYC and if still tied, BOS etc. "To date" will be continuously updated, and shows the highest value of 2017 so far. 

In this table of entries, current scores are shown ahead of your name.  Scores are total errors to date (e.g., 2 deg = 2 points). The  total score is partly subject to improvement  unless your forecast was lower than the maximum to date, then your score can possibly increase for that location. The most widespread locked in points are for SEA (already 96) and DEN (already 100). 

Scores appear in order generated by the total errors to date, with the original entries and the totals shown in a second (lower) table which starts with highest DCA forecast, and then lists all forecasters in that order, using the first broken tie where required. 

TABLE 1: Scoring error points (adjusted when seasonal max changes) -- red numbers denote errors that can increase, black numbers can decrease (your forecast higher than seasonal max to date). Bold zero indicates any forecast currently on the mark for seasonal max to date (these can only increase too).

Total score to date is the first entry in each line. Total points subject to further increase is the last entry under Pts locked.

 

Score / FORECASTER _____ DCA_NYC_BOS____ORD_ATL_IAH____DEN_PHX_SEA __ Pts locked

 

21 _ CCM ________________ 2 __ 3 __ 2 ______ 0 __ 6 __ 3 ______ 2 __ 0 __ 3 ____ 3

22 _ BKViking _____________3 __ 4 __ 2 ______ 4 __ 5 __ 0 ______ 2 __ 2 __ 0 ____ 2

23 _ wxdude64 ____________2 __ 5 __ 2 ______ 2 __ 6 __ 3 ______ 0 __ 1 __ 2 ____ 3

23 _ wxallannj _____________1 __ 3 __ 0 ______ 3 __ 6 __ 3 ______ 3 __ 2 __ 2 ____ 5

25 _ RodneyS _____________ 0 __ 3 __ 2 ______ 2 __ 5 __ 4 ______ 2 __ 3 __ 4 ____ 9

26 _ so_whats_happening ___4 __ 5 __ 1 ______ 3 __ 7 __ 0 ______ 3 __ 1 __ 2 ____ 5

27 _ Damage in Tolland _____2 __ 5 __ 3 ______ 5 __ 4 __ 2 ______ 1 __ 1 __ 4 ____ 6

 

29 _ Consensus (average) ___3 __ 5 __ 2 ______ 4 __ 7 __ 4 ______ 0 __ 1 __ 3 ____ 4

 

30 _ Stebo _______________ 3 __ 5 __ 1 ______ 6 __ 5 __ 4 ______ 0 __ 2 __ 4 ____ 6

33 _ dmillz25 _____________ 3 __ 6 __ 4 ______ 7 __ 8 __ 3 ______  1 __ 0 __ 1 ____ 2

34 _ Neckbeard93 _________ 3 __ 6 __ 3 ______ 1 __ 8 __ 3 ______  2 __ 1 __ 7 ____10

35 _ RJay ________________ 5 __ 6 __ 3 ______ 8 __ 8 __ 3 ______ 0 __ 1 __ 1 ____ 2

35 _ Tom ________________ 4 __ 5 __ 2 ______ 9 __10 __ 2 ______ 1 __ 2 __ 0 ____ 2

35 _ hudsonvalley21 _______ 3 __ 5 __ 5 ______ 9 __ 7 __ 1 ______ 2 __ 1 __ 2 _____2

40 _ H2O_Town__Wx ______ 0 __ 2 __ 3 ______ 5 __ 9 __ 6 ______ 5 __ 1 __ 9 ____18

42 _ SD _________________ 6 __ 6 __ 2 ______ 1 __ 9 __ 7 ______ 4 __ 3 __ 4 ____11

44 _ Roger Smith __________4 __ 3 __ 3 ______ 4 __ 7 __ 8 _____ 10 __ 1 __ 4 ____ 0

45 _ blazess556 ___________ 5 __ 7 __ 5 ______ 3 __ 7 __ 7 _____ 2 __ 1 __ 8 ____11

47 _ DonSutherland.1 ______ 5 __ 7 __ 5 ______ 4 __ 6 __ 6 ______3 __ 2 __ 9 ____14

 

Table 2: FORECAST SEASONAL MAX VALUES (red is highest forecast, blue is lowest forecast)

 

42_ SD ___________________ 104 _ 100 __ 97 ______ 96 _ 103 _ 107 ______ 96 _ 116 __ 92

47_ DonSutherland.1 ________ 103 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 99 _ 100 _ 106 ______ 97 _ 117 __ 87

45_ blazess556 _____________ 103 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 98 _ 101 _ 107 ______ 98 _ 118 __ 88

35_ RJay __________________ 103 _ 100 __ 98 _____ 103 _ 102 _ 103 _____ 100 _ 118 __ 95

35_ Tom __________________ 102 __ 99 __ 97 _____ 104 _ 104 _ 102 _____ 101 _ 117 __ 96

26_ so_whats_happening _____102 __ 99 __ 96 ______ 98 _ 101 _ 100 ______ 97 _ 120 __ 94

44_ Roger Smith ____________102 __ 97 __ 98 ______ 99 _ 101 _ 108 _____ 110 _ 120 _ 100

33_ dmillz25 _______________ 101 _ 100 __ 99 _____ 102 _ 102 _ 103 ______ 99 _ 119 __ 95

34_ Neckbeard93 ___________ 101 _ 100 __ 98 ______ 96 _ 102 _ 103 ______ 98 _ 118 __ 89

 

29_ Consensus (average) _____101 __ 99 __ 97 ______ 99 _ 101 _ 104 _____ 100 _ 118 __ 93

 

35_ hudsonvalley21 _________ 101 __ 99 _ 100 _____ 104 _ 101 _ 101 ______ 98 _ 120 __ 98

30_ Stebo _________________ 101 __ 99 __ 96 _____ 101 __ 99 _ 104 _____ 100 _ 117 __ 92

22_ BKViking _______________101 __ 98 __ 97 ______ 99 __ 99 _ 100 _____ 102 _ 117 __ 96

27_ Damage in Tolland _______100 __ 99 __ 98 _____ 100 __ 98 _ 102 ______ 99 _ 118 __ 92

23_ wxdude64 ______________100 __ 99 __ 97 ______ 97 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 100 _ 118 __ 94

21_ CCM __________________ 100 __ 97 __ 97 ______ 95 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 102 _ 119 __ 93

25_ RodneyS ________________98 __ 97 __ 97 ______ 97 __ 99 _ 104 ______ 98 _ 116 __ 92

40_ H2O_Town__Wx _________ 98 __ 96 __ 92 _____ 100 _ 103 _ 106 ______ 95 _ 118 __ 87

23_ wxallannj _______________ 97 __ 97 __ 95 ______ 98 _ 100 _ 103 _____ 103 _ 117 __ 94

 

Max to date _____________ 98 __ 94 __ 95 ____ 95 __94 __100___ 100 _ 119 _ 96

(updated through October 1 ... although ORD tied their seasonal MAX of 95 in the late September heat wave, no station has increased since July and the contest is now declared settled.)

WINNER -- CCM (21 error points) ... shared 2 perfect forecasts

2nd PLACE -- BKViking (22 error points) ... shared 2 perfect forecasts

3rd PLACE -- (tied) wxdude64 and wxallannj (23 error points)

In general our seasonal MAX guesses were a bit on the higher side of reality at all but the western locations which tended to run warmer than many expected. ATL was particularly cool, I would bet that their max of 94 is the lowest or one of the lowest they have ever seen -- same goes for NYC

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Roger Smith

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Reports on anomalies, forecasts based on NWS 7-day, and long-range GFS indicators ...

__________________ DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

______ (7 d) ______ --5.9 _--5.1 _--2.1 ___ --5.3 _--5.1 _--2.9 ____ +3.0 _+3.4 _+9.9

______(14d)_______ --5.0 _--5.0 _--0.2 ___ --3.6 _--6.6 _--4.2 ____ +6.0 _+3.5 _+5.9

______(17d)_______ --3.2 _--1.8 _+0.5 ___ --1.1 _--5.0 _--3.4 ____ +4.6 _+2.6 _+5.0

______(20d)_______ --1.8 _--0.6 _+0.7 ___ +0.4 _--3.4 _--2.2 ____ +4.2 _+1.8 _+3.5

_____ (22d) _______ --0.9 _+0.3 _+0.7 ___ +2.2 _--2.4 _--1.7 ____ +4.7 _+1.4 _+3.0

_____ (24d) _______ +0.1 _+1.4 _+1.2 ___ +3.8 _--1.7 _--1.3 ____ +3.3 _+0.4 _+2.9

_____ (26d) _______ +1.0 _+2.3 _+1.9 ___ +5.1 _--0.9 _--0.8 ____ +2.5 _--0.4 _+2.9

_____ (29d) _______ +1.7 _+2.7 _+2.5 ___ +5.0 _+0.2 __0.0 ____ +1.7 _--0.6 _+3.5

_____ (30d) _______ +1.5_+2.5_+2.2___+4.8 _+0.3__0.0 ____+1.7_--0.5 _+3.4

Scoring should be updated by 17z

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Final scoring September 2017

Best scores are in bold, best totals in bold italics, and where a "regular" forecaster does not have high score, the within-regular-forecasters' high score is indicated in italics (examples, BOS, ORD). 

ORD scores are now adjusted up to meet "minimum progression" rule where 40 must be high score for the field (applied to regular 16 entrants and IntenseBlizzard2014 as rainsucks was above that, that score will remain adjusted halfway from raw to 100). This rule was also applied to low scores in January and March.

 

FORECASTER ____________ DCA_NYC_BOS___east____ORD_ATL_IAH___cent____ TOTAL

 

rainsucks _________________70 _100 _ 92 __ 262 ___87_ 86 _ 90 ___263 _____ 525

SD ______________________90 _ 70 _ 66___ 226 ___ 40 _ 86 _ 80 ___ 206 _____ 432

 

Normal ___________________70 _ 50 _ 56 ___ 176 ___ 32 _ 94 _100___ 226 _____ 402

 

wxallannj _________________86 _ 62 _ 38 ___ 186 ___ 22 _ 80 _ 86 ___ 188 _____ 374

Roger Smith ______________ 76 _ 50 _ 58 ___ 184 ___ 18 _ 86 _ 78 ___ 182 _____ 366

so_whats_happening _______ 60 _ 38 _ 40 ___ 138 ___ 40 _ 98 _ 88 ___ 226 _____ 364

BKViking _________________ 76 _ 54 _ 52 ___ 182 ___ 05 _ 78 _ 96 ___ 179 _____ 361

IntenseBlizzard 2014 _______ 62 _ 48 _ 58 ___ 168 ___ 32 _ 64 _ 96 ___ 192 _____ 360

 

Consensus ________________60 _ 36 _ 38 ___ 134 ___ 20 _ 94 _ 98 ___ 212 _____ 346

 

RJay ____________________ 62 _ 40 _ 38 ___ 140 ___ 24 _ 88 _ 90 ___ 202 _____ 342

Tom _____________________66 _ 36 _ 34 ___ 136 ___ 20 _ 84 _98 ___ 202 _____ 338

hudsonvalley21 ____________56 _ 26 _ 42 ___ 124 ___ 20 _ 94 _ 82 ___ 196 _____ 320

wxdude64 ________________ 48 _ 26 _ 38 ___ 112 ___ 18 _ 98 _ 94 ___ 210 _ 322

______________ (-2%) _____ 47 _ 25 _ 37 ___ 109 ___ 18 _ 96 _ 92 ___ 206 _____ 315

dmillz25 __________________ 84 _ 30 _ 22 ___ 136 ___ 22 _ 66 _ 80 ___ 168 _____ 304

DonSutherland.1 ___________ 46 _ 34 _ 38 ___ 118 ___ 18 _ 84 _ 66 ___ 168 _____ 286

H2O_Town__wx ___________ 58 _ 32 _ 38 ___ 128 ___ 10 _ 84 _ 72 ___ 166 _ 294

_______________ (-5%) ____ 55 _ 30 _ 36 ___ 121 ___ 10 _ 80 _ 68 ___ 158 _____ 279 

Neckbeard93 _____________  44 _ 30 _ 50 ___ 124 ___ 14 _ 72 _ 64 ___ 150 _____ 274

RodneyS _________________ 32 _ 36 _ 44 ___ 112 ___ 32 _ 38 _ 84 ___ 154 _____ 266

Stebo ____________________42 _ 28 _ 34 ___ 104 ___ 02 _ 64 _ 76 ___ 142 _____ 246

Damage in Tolland _________ 52 _ 30 _ 32 ___ 114 ___ 08 _ 66 _ 46 ___ 120 _____ 234

 

 

Western and All Nine Final Scores for September 2017

 

FORECASTER _____________ DEN_PHX_SEA ____ TOTAL _______ All Nine (= rank)

 

dmillz25 _________________ 96 _ 70 _ 82 _____248 __________ 552 ( = 8 )

 

Consensus _______________ 96 _ 62 _ 88 _____ 246 __________ 592 ( = 2 )

 

Stebo ____________________78 _ 60 _100 _____ 238 __________ 484 ( = 17)

IntenseBlizzard 2014 ________98 _ 50 _ 88 _____ 236 __________ 596 ( = 2 )

Neckbeard93 ______________96 _ 42 _ 90 _____ 228 __________ 502 ( = 14)

RodneyS _________________ 78 _ 62 _ 88 _____ 228 __________ 494 ( = 15)

BKViking __________________74 _ 66 _ 88_____ 228 __________ 589 ( = 3 )

hudsonvalley21 ____________76 _ 62 _ 88 _____ 226 __________ 546 ( = 10)

DonSutherland.1 ___________74 _ 52 _ 90 _____ 216 __________ 502 ( = 13)

Damage in Tolland _________ 94 _ 48 _ 72 _____ 214 __________ 448 ( = 18)

wxallannj _________________70 _ 56 _ 86 _____ 212 __________ 586 ( = 4 )

RJay _____________________66 _ 66 _ 76 _____ 208 __________ 550 ( = 9 )

so_whats_happening ________82 _ 68 _ 58 _____ 208 __________ 572 ( = 5 )

H2O_Town__wx ___________ 92 _ 78 _ 48 _ 218 

_______________ (-5%) ____ 87 _ 74 _ 46 _____ 207 __________ 486 ( = 16)

Tom _____________________74 _ 74 _ 54 _____ 202 __________ 540 ( = 11)

wxdude64 ________________ 38 _ 94 _ 74 _ 206

______________ (-2%) _____ 37 _ 92 _ 73 _____ 202 __________ 517 ( = 12)

rainsucks _________________ 72 _ 96 _ 32 _____ 200 __________ 725 ( = 1 )

Roger Smith _______________64 _ 50 _ 84 _____ 198 __________ 564 ( = 7 )

 

Normal ___________________66 _ 90 _ 32 _____ 188 __________ 590 ( = 2 )

SD ______________________ 46 _ 70 _ 22 _____ 138 __________ 570 ( = 6 )

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Roger Smith

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<<< ---=--- 2017 Annual Scoring Summary (January-September) ---=--- >>>

... ... ... ... ... ... ... (see post 23 above for final September scoring) ... ... ... ... ... ... ... ...

Best scores: The first six numbers refer to the six locations, the last two refer to eastern and central division totals. Months won (in this part of the contest) are shown by name after the number codes. There are sometimes ties so the totals may add up higher than the number of months. Best total scores January-September are highlighted in red in the table for six locations, and in bold italic for two groups and for all six. Also, best scores are awarded both within the group of regular entrants and the larger total field; this explains some double entries this month.

 

FORECASTER _________DCA_NYC_BOS__east____ORD_ATL_IAH___cent ___TOTAL__Best scores, months

 

 1 DonSutherland.1 ____505 _474 _452 _1431___494 _626 _633_1753__ 3184 _001.122.1.3_Jan, May 

 2 RJay _____________ 458 _499 _472 __1429 ___447 _618 _627 __1692___3121_122.311.2.3_Feb, Apr 

 

 3 Consensus _________448 _428 _423 __1299 ___436 _591 _585 __1612___2911 __010.000

 

 3 wxallannj __________489 _442 _486__1417 ___373 _537 _562 __1472___2889 __002.012..1.0 _Jun

 4 BKViking __________ 460 _ 440 _470 __1370 ___434 _579 _502 __1515___2885 __000.001 

 5 SD _______________ 490 _467 _455 __1412 ___464 _511 _478__1453 ___2865 _ 121200.1.0 _ Sep

 6 Stebo _____________450 _461 _423 __1334 ___389 _534 _545 __1468___2802 __011.102.1.0 __ Jul 

 7 hudsonvalley21______427 _403 _414 __1244 ___432 _568 _531__1531___2775 __000.010 

 

 8 Normal ____________474 _463 _446 __1393 ___411 _468 _502__1381 ___2774 __101.001.0.0 __ May

 

 8 dmillz25 __________ 490 _419 _432 __1341 ___402 _488 _508__1398___2739 __100.101

 9 Tom ______________473 _411 _405 __1269 ___368 _534 _545__1447___2736 __000.111

10 RodneyS __________ 420 _376 _340 __1136 ___439 _495 _637__1571___2707 __011.200..0..1 _ Mar 

11 wxdude64 _________452 _403 _432 __1287 ___392 _509 _488__1389___2676 __120.000..1.0

12 Roger Smith _______ 408 _395 _288 __1091 ___336 _480 _541__1357___2448 __100.001.0.0_Aug

13 Damage in Tolland __ 353 _335 _326 __1014 ___390 _455 _477__1322___2336 __000.010..0.0

14 Neckbeard93*______ 316 _344 _295 __ 955 ___434 _470 _468__1372___2327 __111.000.1.0

15 so_whats_happening#409_327 _350 __1086 ___332 _462 _443 __1237___2323__200.110 .0.1

16 blazess556~________303 _303 _322 __ 928 ___322 _303 _293__ 918___ 1846 __001.000

17 H2Otown_WX~~____ 318 _300 _314 __932 ___202 _345 _345 __ 892___ 1824 __110.001..1.0

18 CCM %%__________ 136 _106_156 __ 398 ___146 _134 _126 __ 406____ 804 __000.100..0.1

19 Prestige Worldwide^ _111 _107_123 __ 341 ____25 _140 _118 __ 283____ 624 __110.010 

20 Maxim^____________ 80 _ 85 _ 78 __ 243 ____ 50 _150 _142 __ 342____ 585 __100.001

22 rainsucks // ________ 70 _100 _ 92 __ 262 ____ 87 _ 86 _ 90 ___ 263____ 525__011100.1.1_Sep

22 JBG % _____________88 _ 64 _ 32 __ 184 ____ 72 _ 60 _ 88 ___220____ 404

23 IntenseBlizzard 2014// 62 _ 48 _ 58 __ 168 ____ 32 _ 64 _ 96 ___ 192____ 360

________________________________________________________________________________

 

Updated annual scoring for western and all nine contests January - September 2017

 

FORECASTER _________DEN_PHX_SEA___TOTAL___Best scores___All nine ( = rank )__Months 


 1 Rjay _______________ 586 _616 _725___1927 __ 2 0 2 _ Jan,Jul__ 5048 ( = 1) __ FEB, APR,JUL

 

 2 Consensus ___________607 _609 _700 ___1916 __ 2 0 0 ________ 4831 ( = 3)

 

 2 wxallannj ___________ 554 _621 _674 ___ 1849 __ 0 1 1 __________4738 ( = 3) __ JUN

 3 Roger Smith _________497 _561 _788 ___ 1846 __ 0 0 2__ Feb ____4294 (= 12) 

 4 RodneyS ____________588 _643 _612 ___ 1843 __ 2 1 0 ________ _4550 ( = 5) __ MAR

 5 DonSutherland.1 _____ 585 _619 _624 ___ 1828 __ 2 1 0 __ Aug ___ 5012 ( = 2)__JAN, MAY,AUG

 6 dmillz25 ____________ 552 _531 _704 ___ 1787 __ 2 0 1 _ Apr,Sep _4526 ( = 6) 

 7 BKViking ____________457 _540 _746 ___ 1743 __ 0 0 0 _________ 4628 ( = 4) __ SEP

 8 so_whats_happening#_ 543 _591 _582 ___ 1716 __ 0 2 0 _ Mar,May _4039 (= 13)

 9 wxdude64 ___________486 _580 _645 ___ 1711 __ 1 2 0 _________ 4387 (= 11) 

10 Tom _______________ 467 _645 _598 ___1710 __ 0 0 0 _________ 4446  ( = 9)

11 hudsonvalley21 ______ 509 _578 _622 ___ 1709 __ 0 0 0 _________ 4484 ( = 7)

12 Damage in Tolland ____466 _521 _689 ___ 1676 __ 0 1 3 _ Jun _____4012 (= 14)

13 SD_________________ 522 _583 _510 ___ 1615 __ 0 0 0 __________4480 (= 8)

14 Stebo ______________ 489 _522 _593 ___ 1604 __ 1 0 1 __________4406 ( =10) 

 

15 Normal _____________ 492 _574 _498 ___ 1564 __ 0 1 0 _________ 4338 (= 13)

 

15 Neckbeard93* _______637 _451 _363 ____1451 __ 3 1 0 _________3778 (= 15) 

16 H20TownWx~~______ 462 _426 _487 ____1375 __ 0 0 1 _________ 3199 (= 16) 

17 blazess556~ ________ 324 _353 _360 ____1037 __ 1 0 0 _________ 2883 (= 17)

18 Prestige Worldwide^__ 159 _223 _170 ____ 552 __ 0 1 0 _________ 1176 (= 18)

19 Maxim^ ____________ 161 _133 _176 ____ 440 __ 0 0 0 _________ 1055 (= 20)

20 CCM %% ___________ 114 _ 94 _156 ____ 364 __ 0 0 0 __________1168 (= 19)

21 IntenseBlizzard 2014//__ 98 _ 50 _ 88 _____236 __ 1 0 0 ___________ 596 (= 23) 

22 JBG % _______________76 _ 84 __48 ____ 208 __ 0 1 0 ___________ 612 (= 22)

23 rainsucks // __________ 72 _ 96 _ 32 _____ 200 __ 0 1 0 ___________ 725 (= 21) __ SEP

_______________________________________________________________________

NOTES:

* one month missed (Jan). # one month missed (Apr), ~~ two months missed (July, August)

~ three months missed (July, August, September)

^ three months entered (Jan, Feb, Mar)

%% two months entered (May, June) ... % one month entered (July)

// one month entered (September)

 

Reports on ranking with late penalties removed

 

Jan late penalty for Blazess556 total of 2, (0,2) -- no change in rank

 March late penalty deductions:

... Rjay lost 41 (22,19), Damage lost 18 (13,5) and wxdude64 lost 14 (12,2). 

...  RJay currently 1st in the all nine, and he would remain 2nd in original six and is already first in western. _ Damage, see July _ wxdude64, see September.

April late penalty deductions:

... H2O_Town__wx lost 51 (25,26) and Neckbeard93 lost 32 (14,18).

... H2O_Town__wx see September. Neckbeard would see no change in ranks in any contest. 

May late penalty deductions:

... BKViking lost 32 (20, 12).

... BKViking would move up one spot to 3rd in original six, and no changes to western or all nine rankings. 

June late penalty deductions:

... Stebo lost 39 (24,15).

... Stebo would move up one to 13th place in the western contest, otherwise unchanged in ranks. 

July late penalty deductions:

... Damage in Tolland lost 98 (75, 23). annual total now 116 (88, 28)

... Damage in Tolland would remain 13th place in the original six and would stay 12th in the western contest although moving in just behind several others in 8th to 11th places, and would move up one spot into 13th overall.

September late penalty deductions:

... wxdude64 lost 11 (7,4) bringing the annual total to 25 (19,6), and H2OTown_wx lost 26 (15, 11) for an annual total of 77 (40, 37). 

... wxdude64 would move up one spot in the western contest.

... H2OTown_wx would not change ranks.

__ ranks for Consensus and Normal do not affect ranks of lower scoring forecasters.

 

NEW THIS MONTH __ comparative scoring for Neckbeard93 and so_whats_happening

... These two regular participants missed one month each, but a different month with different ranges of scoring. Neckbeard93 missed January and so_whats_happening missed April.

 I assume for the sake of a better comparison that they scored the average of the other forecasters who participated in those months. Those averages were 365 in January (141 east and central, 224 western) and 469 for April (249, 220).

Based on those numbers, the comparative totals (and improved ranks) for these two would be

Neckbeard93 ____________2468 __ 1675 ___ 4143 _____ 11th __ 13th __ 13th

so_whats_happening _____ 2572 __ 1936 ___ 4508 _____ 12th __ 1st ___ 7th

(these ranks compare with time penalty totals and would fall slightly if compared with raw scores before time penalties ... also, there's no real way of estimating what these forecasters might have scored in the two months ... the January scores east-central were very low). 

For H2OTown__wx who missed July and August, if 800 and 400 points had been scored in the two sections, ranks would be 12th, 8th and 11th.

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Extreme forecast report update

This month produced five extreme forecast wins with some losses. 

DCA _ At a final value of +1.5, it's a win for SD (+1.0) and a loss for rainsucks (+3.0).

NYC _ The final value (+2.5) gives rainsucks (+2.5) a win and SD (+1.0) a "within regular forecasters" win.  

BOS _ The final value (+2.2) gives rainsucks (+1.8) a win and SD (+0.5) a "within regular forecasters" win.

ORD _ The final value (+4.8) gives rainsucks (+3.5) a win and both SD and so_what's_happening (+0.4) the "regular forecasters" win.

ATL and IAH did not qualify with outcomes near consensus.

DEN (final value +1.7) was rather close to consensus and did not qualify.

PHX (final value -0.5) was a win for rainsucks (-0.7) and also for wxdude64 (-0.2, 2% late penalty) best score among regular forecasters.

SEA just fell short of qualifying at +3.4, four forecasts were warmer and fifth warmest Stebo (+3.4) has the high score. 

 

UPDATED TABLE OF EXTREME FORECASTS (wins and losses)

 

RJay _____________ 8-0

DonSutherland1 _____6-1

Damage in Tolland ___4-0*

Normal ____________4-0

Neckbeard93 _______ 4-2

Stebo _____________4-3

SD _______________ 4-0

Wxdude64 _________ 4-0

so_whats_happening _4-0

rainsucks __________ 4-1

Prestige Worldwide __ 3-0

Wxallannj __________3-1

H2OTown__Wx _____ 2-0

Maxim ____________ 2-0

Roger Smith ________2-0

Dmillz25 ___________2-1

RodneyS __________ 1-0

JBG ______________ 1-0

CCM ______________ 1-1

____________________________________________

* no decision for DCA July 2017

 

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Roger Smith

Roger Smith

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Well, regular forecasters (15 or 16 of us), we had our butts kicked by both new forecasters "rainsucks" and IntenseBlizzard2014 this month. Congrats to them. 

The seasonal MAX contest is declared final (post 21) and there again, CCM who entered only to do that contest and one month won the top spot, BKViking was a close second. 

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