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September 2017 Observation & Discussion Thread


dmillz25

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Next 8 days holding at near +8degs.  (Avg. 68)  No day even close to normal.

Meanwhile Jose still getting blocked in various ways on the GFS/EURO runs.  CMC may have secret, smaller-weaker system that goes direct to hit just north of us on the 18th.  This is earlier than the other models too.

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Warmer pattern coming up with the trough diving into the Western US. But the biggest + departures may set up over the Great Lakes. The daily means are quickly falling now with the NYC split next week down to 73/59. So not tough to beat that with ridging.

 

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_us_1.thumb.png.390b72673e8a611f2f3c53258dd2c60a.png

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_us_6.thumb.png.0b9478488ad51331219cb156e75702d8.png

 

 

 

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37 minutes ago, nzucker said:

Those anomalies are only 2C/3.6F, not enough to hit 90F. If NYC's normals are 73/59, that would equate to upper 70s by day.

  • they're at 850 mb, not the sfc
  • an ensemble mean is at day 10 is likely to be toned down from what actually will happen, especially when it comes to extremes
  • that airmass is advecting east
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44 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The rest of September looks much like the warm La Nina pattern last winter. Interesting how the trough sets up over the West right where the record breaking summer ridge was.

 

ecmwf-ens_z500aMean_namer_1.thumb.png.6973fcb4648db92983ef1acc0eaa3973.png

ecmwf-ens_z500aMean_namer_6.thumb.png.308ffc82f4c50be94057b9b0dc0c8ed4.png

Yep, complete pattern flip from August and early September like you and SnoSki mentioned.  Our old friend, "The Ridge," looks to have finally returned.  It felt like something was missing lol. 

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46 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

Yep, complete pattern flip from August and early September like you and SnoSki mentioned.  Our old friend, "The Ridge," looks to have finally returned.  It felt like something was missing lol. 

This is the type of pattern that can really get stuck in place with a Nina-like regime like we saw last fall and winter. Be interesting to see if this pattern holds or we try and get back to more of a Western ridge again in October.

u_anom_30.5S-5N.thumb.gif.94ebac58a58fe9804369285d1f761725.gif

 

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13 hours ago, bluewave said:

The rest of September looks much like the warm La Nina pattern last winter. Interesting how the trough sets up over the West right where the record breaking summer ridge was.

 

ecmwf-ens_z500aMean_namer_1.thumb.png.6973fcb4648db92983ef1acc0eaa3973.png

ecmwf-ens_z500aMean_namer_6.thumb.png.308ffc82f4c50be94057b9b0dc0c8ed4.png

 

It looks as if the ridge amplifies to our North, however, limiting how warm we can get and allowing for a tropical system or ULL to develop underneath those high heights. Could eventually lead to a heavy rain/flood threat.

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