bluewave Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 That typhoon recurve is going to pump the ridge over Western NOAM to winter 13-14 and 14-15 levels. The interplay between the GL trough and the WAR will determine the exact track of Irma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 29 minutes ago, bluewave said: The interplay between the GL trough and the WAR will determine the exact track of Irma. as well as give us good convective chances Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: as well as give us good convective chances This pattern is just about as amplified as we get to see in early September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 As has been the case all spring and summer the heavier rains with the remnants of Harvey look to fall south of the area, anyone have the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 30, 2017 Share Posted August 30, 2017 Wow Irma really close on the GFShttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017083018&fh=222&xpos=0&ypos=545 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: Wow Irma really close on the GFShttps://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs®ion=atl&pkg=mslp_wind&runtime=2017083018&fh=222&xpos=0&ypos=545 it's always the female storms that threaten the nyc area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 57 minutes ago, nycwinter said: it's always the female storms that threaten the nyc area... Would be nice to at least get something close for the precip. Though a million things can happen between then and now. I don't think it's a total recurve though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 6z GFS has a major hurricane into Hatteras and then goes up the inland / up the coast . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Next 8 days temps. bounce around but turn out even for period. Avg. = 71. Meanwhile GFS has Cat5 (907mb.) near Cape Hatteras in 10 days. EURO has it over Cuba as Cat3 (967mb). We will know in a week, I guess, who among us must die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 First start to September for NYC in the 50's since 2009. 9-1-09....57 9-1-02...59 9-1-92...59 9-1-91...57 9-1-86...58 9-1-85...58 9-1-76...59 9-1-75...55 9-1-70..57 9-1-67..54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 31, 2017 Author Share Posted August 31, 2017 That's a big omega block on the west coast sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 *******Entertainment purposes only******* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 20 minutes ago, NortheastPAWx said: *******Entertainment purposes only******* Looks like the coast flips over to rain. Most interior locations would also mix verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 32 minutes ago, Morris said: Looks like the coast flips over to rain. Most interior locations would also mix verbatim. Nah, it'll create its own cold air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 Pretty impressive radiational cooling on the 12z NAM for Upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Pretty impressive radiational cooling on the 12z NAM for Upstate NY. Saranac Lake must have a first average frost date in early September and freeze by the end of the month. That's one epic cold spot. Too much wind here to bother looking at West Hampton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 12z Eps is more north than the op and has alot more members near the east coast than 0z did in regarda to Irma. Looks like a Carolina landfall but still plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Saranac Lake must have a first average frost date in early September and freeze by the end of the month. That's one epic cold spot. Too much wind here to bother looking at West Hampton. The Euro has lows in the mid 30's for portions of Upstate NY with the first patchy frost of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: 12z Eps is more north than the op and has alot more members near the east coast than 0z did in regarda to Irma. Looks like a Carolina landfall but still plenty of time. Keep Irma in the banter thread for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 WAR on the ECM trended remarkably stronger for the 9/8 - 9/11 timeframe. Ill believe it when i see it on guidance 72 hours on out. GFS more 2017-esque Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 66 here already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted September 1, 2017 Author Share Posted September 1, 2017 55 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 Next 8 days about +1deg. (Avg. 70-71). Second halve of month looks AN, so need more negativity now---than we are getting, to finish BN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 56, quite breezy. Been a long time since I felt such a chill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 55 in the Park. What a magnificent morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, Morris said: 55 in the Park. What a magnificent morning! Coldest September 1st in NYC so far since 1975. Only 4 degrees off the record low so far. 9-1-75...55 9/1 51 in 1872 52 in 1926 54 in 1967 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 8/30/2017 at 9:11 PM, nycwinter said: it's always the female storms that threaten the nyc area... Some were throwing around the August 1893 analog for storms with this kind of track hitting the East Coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 55 minutes ago, bluewave said: Coldest September 1st in NYC so far since 1975. Only 4 degrees off the record low so far. 9-1-75...55 9/1 51 in 1872 52 in 1926 54 in 1967 It's going to be in the 40s tomorrow morning on Long Island! 30s in the Poconos? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 7:40 AM, dmillz25 said: That's a big omega block on the west coast sheesh. Portland could hit 100 again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 44 for the low this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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