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September 2017 Observation & Discussion Thread

dmillz25

By dmillz25,
in New York City Metro

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, uncle W said:

one good developing la nina analog would be 1970...It had late heat from 9/22-9/26...other years with the hottest temperature of the year around this date is 1914 and 1895...

What about 1983?

 

At any rate I'm glad this heat won't be plagued by a S or SW wind.

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Paragon said:

Chris, looks like JFK has the highest temps (outside of EWR)  Why are the local TV stations saying temps will drop from Tuesday on?

 

Chris is 1983 our latest 100 degree and 95 degree readings? I believe it hit 100 or came close on 9/11/83 and hit 95 on 9/24/83.

Why are the highest deviations going north of our region?  There won't be a sea breeze.

 

The record high at JFK on Sunday is 88 degrees. Very rare to go from nearly a record low on September 2nd to this type of heat later in the month.

Latest 100 at JFK was on 8/27/48 at 101. The last 95+ was 9-11-83 at 96. The latest 90 of the season was 10/8/07.

record low

9/2  53 in 1949  54 in 2017  54 in 1991+

record high

9/24  88 in 1970  86 in 1961  85 in 2009+

 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
Just now, bluewave said:

The record high at JFK on Sunday is 88 degrees. Very rare to go from nearly a record low on September 2nd to this type of heat later in the month.

Latest 100 at JFK was on 8/27/48 at 101. The last 95+ was 9-11-83 at 96. The latest 90 of the season was 10/8/07.

9/2  53 in 1949  54 in 2017  54 in 1991+

 

9/24  88 in 1970  86 in 1961  85 in 2009+

 

Thanks, I think 1983-84 and 2007-08 were both la ninas in that list- not sure about 1948-49.  

I remember it was 39 in Morristown on the morning of Sept 2!  Going from 30s to 90s in the same month- :P must be more common in Spring than it is in Fall!

 

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

these are the years with at least three days in a row of 80 degrees or higher after the 20th...there are two and counting now...

Year..consecutive 80+ Max.
1881..9/23-9/28......6...91
1891..10/3-10/5......3...86
1895..9/20-9/23......4...97
1898..10/3-10/5......3...81
1905..9/28-9/30......3...88
1914..9/20-9/24......5...95
1920..9/23-9/26......4...88
1921..9/28-9/30......3...87
1922..9/30-10/3......4...88
1927..9/30-10/2......3...90
1930..9/20-9/26......7...87
1934..9/23-9/27......5...83
1941..9/21-9/23......3...91
1941..10/4-10/6......3...94
1946..9/25-9/27......3...83
1946..10/4-10/7......4...87
1948..9/27-9/29......3...84
1949..10/9-10/12....4...88
1950..10/1-10/3......3...86
1951..9/19-9/23......5...85
1954..10/1-10/4......4...86
1954..10/11-10/14..4...87
1959..9/21-9/24......4...90
1959..9/27-9/30......4...83
1959..10/4-10/6......3...88
1961..9/22-9/25......4...90
1965..9/21-9/23......3...88

1967..10/3-10/5......3...86
1968..9/17-9/26....10...87
1968..10/1-10/3......3...85
1970..9/21-9/26......6...94
1972..9/25-9/27......3...86
1980..9/21-9/23......3...94
1984..9/23-9/25......3...86
2004..9/21-9/23......3...82
2007..9/25-9/27......3...87
2007..10/4-10/8......5...87
2010..9/22-9/25......4...89

2016..9/20-9/23......4...87

2016..10/17-10/19..3...85

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
34 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Thanks, I think 1983-84 and 2007-08 were both la ninas in that list- not sure about 1948-49.  

I remember it was 39 in Morristown on the morning of Sept 2!  Going from 30s to 90s in the same month- :P must be more common in Spring than it is in Fall!

 

That's for sure. The first 10 days of September were tied with 1976 for 5th coolest on record at JFK. All the other top 5 coolest starts since the 1970's were much cooler months without any notable late month heat. JFK is already +0.3 on the month which will continue to rise. At least we were able to match some small piece of the 76-77 mini ice age fall and winter.;)

JFK top 5 coolest starts to September and monthly departures:

#1...1975...-2.9

#3...1986...-0.6

#4...1967...-3.4

#5...1976...-1.4....2017....+0.3 and increasing

 

 

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JerseyWx

JerseyWx

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Paragon said:

Thanks, I think 1983-84 and 2007-08 were both la ninas in that list- not sure about 1948-49.  

I remember it was 39 in Morristown on the morning of Sept 2!  Going from 30s to 90s in the same month- :P must be more common in Spring than it is in Fall!

 

I agree, sounds like something that would happen in April.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, forkyfork said:

"we all suspected it would get hot in september" 

I was specifically talking about the far fetched possibility of hitting 90F this September. We still haven't gotten close. My forecast has 87F tomorrow, 88F Sunday, and 86F Monday, so it will be close...but many of the days have been in the upper 70s and low 80s as I suspected. Warm for the time of year but not insane.

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, uncle W said:

these are the years with at least three days in a row of 80 degrees or higher after the 20th...there are two and counting now...

Year..consecutive 80+ Max.
1881..9/23-9/28......6...91
1891..10/3-10/5......3...86
1895..9/20-9/23......4...97
1898..10/3-10/5......3...81
1905..9/28-9/30......3...88
1914..9/20-9/24......5...95
1920..9/23-9/26......4...88
1921..9/28-9/30......3...87
1922..9/30-10/3......4...88
1927..9/30-10/2......3...90
1930..9/20-9/26......7...87
1934..9/23-9/27......5...83
1941..9/21-9/23......3...91
1941..10/4-10/6......3...94
1946..9/25-9/27......3...83
1946..10/4-10/7......4...87
1948..9/27-9/29......3...84
1949..10/9-10/12....4...88
1950..10/1-10/3......3...86
1951..9/19-9/23......5...85
1954..10/1-10/4......4...86
1954..10/11-10/14..4...87
1959..9/21-9/24......4...90
1959..9/27-9/30......4...83
1959..10/4-10/6......3...88
1961..9/22-9/25......4...90
1965..9/21-9/23......3...88

1967..10/3-10/5......3...86
1968..9/17-9/26....10...87
1968..10/1-10/3......3...85
1970..9/21-9/26......6...94
1972..9/25-9/27......3...86
1980..9/21-9/23......3...94
1984..9/23-9/25......3...86
2004..9/21-9/23......3...82
2007..9/25-9/27......3...87
2007..10/4-10/8......5...87
2010..9/22-9/25......4...89

2016..9/20-9/23......4...87

2016..10/17-10/19..3...85

That 1895 heat wave really jumps out at you...95F in late September!

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

Can anyone remember the last time any month of the year had a -4 to -5 departure in the first 10 days of the month and then turned positive later in the month?  All the cool departures have been erased and the + departures are just getting started as departures take off the next several days. This is a rare enough event for September.

Departures through the 22nd:

NYC...+0.3

LGA...+0.4

JFK...+0.7

ISP...+1.4

BDR...+1.3

EWR...+0.4

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

IMO when the DP is above 60 it’s not a dry heat. 

Ah, I like the north to northwest wind, no breeze coming from the damn ocean and spoiling the party.  I'm up early today, really excited about doing outdoors gardening stuff the next couple of days.  I don't like high humidity either, but I'm okay as long as the dewpoint is below 70.

My perfect summer weather is actually 95-100 with dew points in the 50s and low 60s.  

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Ah, I like the north to northwest wind, no breeze coming from the damn ocean and spoiling the party.  I'm up early today, really excited about doing outdoors gardening stuff the next couple of days.  I don't like high humidity either, but I'm okay as long as the dewpoint is below 70.

My perfect summer weather is actually 95-100 with dew points in the 50s and low 60s.  

It looks like we shifted back to a warmer fall pattern like last year following the anomalous cool start to September. The only difference is that this summer had much less heat than last year. You can see the ensembles only have a transient cool down near the start of October before the trough returns to the West. Very similar look to last October at least day 11-15.

 

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gefs_z500a_noram_31.thumb.png.6846188d7e3876dd8849bc9f5ddf83d4.png

gefs_z500a_noram_51.thumb.png.fc8c741625a627064b9f2b547f0487b3.png

 

 

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted

Chris why was the heat so prevalent in the West this year and the trough gets set up there for the fall?  If we'd had a 1983 sort of summer it would have have been great!   I would have liked to have had the trough in place in the West for most of the summer.

 

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Chris why was the heat so prevalent in the West this year and the trough gets set up there for the fall?  If we'd had a 1983 sort of summer it would have have been great!   I would have liked to have had the trough in place in the West for most of the summer.

 

It's a continuation of the extreme NP pattern which emerged in 2013. 2009 to early 2013 was all about these extreme ridges setting up over the AO and NAO regions. The record breaking March 2013 -AO seemed to be part of the pattern shift.

http://cpo.noaa.gov/News/News-Article/ArtMID/6226/ArticleID/1498/Scientists-link-California-droughts-and-floods-to-distinctive-atmospheric-waves

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JerseyWx

JerseyWx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It looks like we shifted back to a warmer fall pattern like last year following the anomalous cool start to September. The only difference is that this summer had much less heat than last year. You can see the ensembles only have a transient cool down near the start of October before the trough returns to the West. Very similar look to last October at least day 11-15.

I'm beginning to wonder if we'll switch to the fall pattern of 2015 and 2016, where cool shots weren't long lasting.  You might have gotten a blip of BN here and there, but overall the temps were AN.  

The ridge may have dominated the West this Summer, but perhaps we will get it in time for Fall.

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Stormlover74

Stormlover74

Posted
Posted
17 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

I'm beginning to wonder if we'll switch to the fall pattern of 2015 and 2016, where cool shots weren't long lasting.  You might have gotten a blip of BN here and there, but overall the temps were AN.  

The ridge may have dominated the West this Summer, but perhaps we will get it in time for Fall.

That's been the norm the past few years so I think that'll be the case again. People always think once fall arrives that it's here to stay but we always have an Indian summer

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

I'm beginning to wonder if we'll switch to the fall pattern of 2015 and 2016, where cool shots weren't long lasting.  You might have gotten a blip of BN here and there, but overall the temps were AN.  

The ridge may have dominated the West this Summer, but perhaps we will get it in time for Fall.

Cool departure months like August have been the exception rather than the rule for the most part during the 2010's. You can see how the first 10 days of September were the tail end of the cool August pattern before the big rebound to warmer after September 12th.

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

1954 was a big east coast Hurricane year and had two heat waves in October...that winter was a la nina and on the whole had below average temperatures...snowfall was light and precipitation below average...we had three days above 80 last year in October...the latest such three day 80 or above period...last winter was one of the warmest on record but with 30" of snow...54-55 got less than a foot...I'll take last year over 54-55 any time...

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uncle W

uncle W

Posted
Posted

so far September is average using the September monthly average temperatures from 1981-2010...as of yesterday NYC is averaging 69.8 this month...It probably will end up above 70.0 putting it in the warm category...from 1981-2010 the September average is 68.4...from 2011-2016 it's 70.4...we could end up above that if the heat wave is warmer than predicted...

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Paragon

Paragon

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, uncle W said:

1954 was a big east coast Hurricane year and had two heat waves in October...that winter was a la nina and on the whole had below average temperatures...snowfall was light and precipitation below average...we had three days above 80 last year in October...the latest such three day 80 or above period...last winter was one of the warmest on record but with 30" of snow...54-55 got less than a foot...I'll take last year over 54-55 any time...

1955-56 was also a la nina and a better one for us

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