CIK62 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 I think we will be lucky to see 3 BN days out of the next 16 days. Over the top heat may be back by Oct. 05. At any rate, the latest GFSx on the next 7 days, is averaging a clear +10degs. @77degs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 5 hours ago, bluewave said: Sunday and Monday could potentially be the first +20C 850 mb temps on record for the Northeast after September 20th. the eps has been trending warmer. up to a +8 anomaly at 850 mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 I can see a more normal pattern with some below starting in October. This week is like a typical July week. Even threatening to hit 90. I think any future warm spikes won’t be this bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 56 minutes ago, forkyfork said: the eps has been trending warmer. up to a +8 anomaly at 850 mb It looks like the current record 850 mb temperature at Albany for the last week of September is +18C and +19C for our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 after the 23rd with six times 90 or higher, the date with the most years hitting 90 is 9/26 which has three years 90 or higher...la nina year 1970 was 91 on the 26th making it five straight days 89 or higher...1895 was 97 on the 23rd...90 on the 26th... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: the eps has been trending warmer. up to a +8 anomaly at 850 mb Wow all models show even warmer just north of us! 24-26 C- all historic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 This is common with recurving TCs- building heat into the east coast- this also happened in 1995. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 7 hours ago, bluewave said: Sunday and Monday could potentially be the first +20C 850 mb temps on record for the Northeast after September 20th. upstate could hit 95? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 2 hours ago, Paragon said: upstate could hit 95? These anomaly maps with such a strong heat ridge over the NE are why I am starting to think Maria might drift right into the Delmarva before then being swung NE by the approaching Midwest trough. Jose isn't driving Maria out of here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 This warmth is the real deal. There were mid 90s all the way into central Michigan on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 3 minutes ago, Hoosier said: This warmth is the real deal. There were mid 90s all the way into central Michigan on Thursday. some awesome late season warmth how many consecutive days in the 90s are you guys expecting? Any good late season analogs to this? 1983 comes to mind with late season warmth! (That was also heading into a la nina pattern.) 1983 was hot through summer right into early fall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: some awesome late season warmth how many consecutive days in the 90s are you guys expecting? Any good late season analogs to this? 1983 comes to mind with late season warmth! (That was also heading into a la nina pattern.) 1983 was hot through summer right into early fall Where I am, likely at least 5 days of 90s. Maybe 6. Drying ground as of late is probably helping to maximize the warming potential. But still, days and days of 850's in the upper teens to lower 20C range. I'm not sure about analogs, and what may be analogous in the Midwest might not be around there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 7 minutes ago, Hoosier said: Where I am, likely at least 5 days of 90s. Maybe 6. Drying ground as of late is probably helping to maximize the warming potential. But still, days and days of 850's in the upper teens to lower 20C range. I'm not sure about analogs, and what may be analogous in the Midwest might not be around there. Wow, I know it's been hot in Chicago the last couple of days, but didn't know it'd last that long. I know a cold front is supposed to cut through the Rockies on its way east; it's been snowing out there, but won't get here until the end of next week to bring more Autumnal weather. I wonder if any triple digit readings will crop up somewhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Hot weather this late just sucks, can't even open the windows at night in this crap. I don't need July in late September. Where was this first half of the month when summer was still a thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Hot weather this late just sucks, can't even open the windows at night in this crap. I don't need July in late September. Where was this first half of the month when summer was still a thing. I'm loving this warm stretch. We had a terrible Spring with so many rainy and cold days, and Summer barely had any real heat. I hope we stay AN through December, then it can snow if it wants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Next 8 days still averaging 76degs., a solid +10degs. Month goes AN today and probably will be +2 or more before any BN days arrive. Home spun storm near Oct. 1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 5 hours ago, Hoosier said: This warmth is the real deal. There were mid 90s all the way into central Michigan on Thursday. I believe the record high of 95 at Grand Rapids was the latest occurrence of a 95 degree reading there. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS, MI 135 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT GRAND RAPIDS MI... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES WAS SET AT GRAND RAPIDS MI ON THURSDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 92 SET IN 1908. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 Can feel the drier air today...been muggy for the last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Hot weather this late just sucks, can't even open the windows at night in this crap. I don't need July in late September. Where was this first half of the month when summer was still a thing. I agree. I am ready for fall and nice temps now. AccuWeather had a possible heat wave for Philly, though sometimes their temps can be a little on the high side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 5 hours ago, bluewave said: I believe the record high of 95 at Grand Rapids was the latest occurrence of a 95 degree reading there. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND RAPIDS, MI 135 AM EDT FRI SEP 22 2017 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT GRAND RAPIDS MI... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 95 DEGREES WAS SET AT GRAND RAPIDS MI ON THURSDAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 92 SET IN 1908. It was. They may hit 95 again today (already 92). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 15 minutes ago, Hoosier said: It was. They may hit 95 again today (already 92). This gives new meaning to a back-loaded summer in Grand Rapids. It only reached 93 in June, 90 in July, and 88 in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: This gives new meaning to a back-loaded summer in Grand Rapids. It only reached 93 in June, 90 in July, and 88 in August. We all suspected it would get hot in September after the cool summer and with a strengthening La Nina. It wasn't a surprise to see a -PNA pattern this September. I expect a large scale pattern change starting 9/30 as the Kara Sea ridge leads to a -NAO. At the same time, ridging should build into the Aleutians and extend poleward, allowing cold air to fill Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 On 9/13/2017 at 0:51 PM, nzucker said: Those anomalies are only 2C/3.6F, not enough to hit 90F. If NYC's normals are 73/59, that would equate to upper 70s by day. "we all suspected it would get hot in september" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 27 minutes ago, bluewave said: This gives new meaning to a back-loaded summer in Grand Rapids. It only reached 93 in June, 90 in July, and 88 in August. If it's going to be hot then we might as well break some records along the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 42 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: If it's going to be hot then we might as well break some records along the way. Continued extreme behavior of these 500 mb patterns. Probably the warmest for late September following a -4 to -5 first 10 days of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 12 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Hot weather this late just sucks, can't even open the windows at night in this crap. I don't need July in late September. Where was this first half of the month when summer was still a thing. On the plus side, it's a dry heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Continued extreme behavior of these 500 mb patterns. Probably the warmest for late September following a -4 to -5 first 10 days of the month. Chris, looks like JFK has the highest temps (outside of EWR) Why are the local TV stations saying temps will drop from Tuesday on? Chris is 1983 our latest 100 degree and 95 degree readings? I believe it hit 100 or came close on 9/11/83 and hit 95 on 9/24/83. Why are the highest deviations going north of our region? There won't be a sea breeze. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 On 9/14/2017 at 9:18 AM, Isotherm said: I think most will tack on another 90F day around the 24th +/- a couple days, maybe more than one. This call is looking likely now. 24th and 25th could hit 90 areawide. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 28 minutes ago, Paragon said: On the plus side, it's a dry heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted September 22, 2017 Share Posted September 22, 2017 one good developing la nina analog would be 1970...It had late heat from 9/22-9/26...other years with the hottest temperature of the year around this date is 1914 and 1895... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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