mackerel_sky Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Based on today's intensification , think it needs its own thread here! Maybe one for the record books, with path and tracks being modeled currently! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 24, 2017 Author Share Posted August 24, 2017 LithiaWx, you gonna chase this one? Only about a 12 hour drive! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 This has "potential" to truly be a catastrophic event. Whether that potential is fully realized remains to be seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said: LithiaWx, you gonna chase this one? Only about a 12 hour drive! Oh hell no. A slow moving, possibly stalling, possibly intensifying cat 3 or 4. Catastrophic flooding. I'm good bro. Only saving grace I can see is upwelling if it moves slowly. That said I've seen some suggestions this thing will intensify up to landfall. Very dangerous and described very well in the main thread. Weakening vs. intensifying at LF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 50 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Oh hell no. A slow moving, possibly stalling, possibly intensifying cat 3 or 4. Catastrophic flooding. I'm good bro. Only saving grace I can see is upwelling if it moves slowly. That said I've seen some suggestions this thing will intensify up to landfall. Very dangerous and described very well in the main thread. Weakening vs. intensifying at LF. Good choice. Even if you stay well inland to avoid the worst, this has the potential to be one of those where you only see storm force winds but your car is under 8 feet of water. No fun in that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 You want get any help from up welling where Harvey is. Deeepest warm water in the Atlantic is western GOM. High 80 degree water and it'll keep coming up to the surface unlike alot of other areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 56 minutes ago, LithiaWx said: Oh hell no. A slow moving, possibly stalling, possibly intensifying cat 3 or 4. Catastrophic flooding. I'm good bro. Only saving grace I can see is upwelling if it moves slowly. That said I've seen some suggestions this thing will intensify up to landfall. Very dangerous and described very well in the main thread. Weakening vs. intensifying at LF. I agree, this one looks very dangerous with the flooding potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 935mb bomb just before eye landfall. Color temps off the chart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 I hope the 3k NAM is wrong and is over doing things as it tends to do. 912mb!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toxictwister00 Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 1 hour ago, JoshM said: I hope the 3k NAM is wrong and is over doing things as it tends to do. 912mb!!!! 18z HMON peaked Harvey at 912mb as well. However most model guidance has been in the 935-940mb range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 The HMON replaced the GFDL early this summer as a new non-hydrostatic hurricane model. Right now it appears that it uses the same dynamic core as the NAM and SREF. Hence why the NAM 3k and the HMON are blowing this thing up to ridiculously strong storms. It has shown improvement in forecasting capabilities over the GFDL, especially in the short term, but it still has a ways to go in terms of its development. For now, the HWRF would be the best hurricane model to use operationally, especially when you have a well-defined and established storm. The 940-950mb it keeps spitting out seems well within the realm of possibilities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
YetAnotherRDUGuy Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Did Harvey really go from a TD to a Cat 2 hurricane in just 24 hours?? These GOM storms sure are a different breed than what we see up in these parts.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 6z high res NAM thankfully backing off of those insane pressures. Rain amounts are going to be absolutely insane, this thing seems to be headed nowhere fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted August 25, 2017 Author Share Posted August 25, 2017 Strong Cat 2 this AM 105 MPH pressure 967 MB next NHC update 7 AM Edit: 950 MB found in eye! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 pressure has dropped like 15mb over past few hours in 940s territory now. Gonna be a beast and one for the history books. *** Its time to quit dismissing the NAM inside 48 hrs. Its had the right idea all along. We learned this the hard way this past winter. It is high res and can see things the globals miss short range. Talking about warm noses etc. Has done a great consistent job advertising Harvey was going to RI/ Bomb out. Be wise and fill up with gas before its goes through the roof price wise throughout next week. Major disruption supply side is fixing to take place moreso from inland flooding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 The Euro path is scary with a two-time Cat 2/3 hit. First near Corpus then kicks back out over the GOM and hits Houston. 40+" of rainfall over most of the TX coast line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 2 hours ago, Wow said: The Euro path is scary with a two-time Cat 2/3 hit. First near Corpus then kicks back out over the GOM and hits Houston. 40+" of rainfall over most of the TX coast line. Truly a horrific forecast for the Texas gulf coast. Not sure we have ever seen a cat 3 stall on the coast and maintain hurricane strength for as long as this has the potential to have we? Edit: With this system not expected to drop TS status for the entire 5 day period this is going to be really bad for even the inland areas as far as wind damage goes. With all that rain and soaked ground it will not take much wind to start toppling trees. This really has the potential to leave people without power for extended periods of time. The duration of Irene is what caused much of our wind damage. She blew from 3am until 11pm and tree and roof damage was worse with Irene than with some of our other higher wind hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 We saw what 15" of rain from Matthew did last year. Some areas have yet to recover. Can't imagine twice that much rainfall or more, with TS winds for days and days along with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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