Harvey OBS, Local NWS Statements, News Affiliate alerts, etc.

[Windspeed]

Things are likely to get crazy in the main Harvey thread. In an effort to keep things tidy and organized with expected increased flow of local information and personal data observations, please share any official and non-official OBS along with any local NWS/governmental/news affiliate statements here for easier record keeping. Thanks to all!

[msp]

Voluntary evac just posted for La Porte, TX, pop. 35,000 (west side of Galveston Bay near the port of Houston):

 

[das]

Good move to create this thread, mods.

Traffic is clear for those considering evacuation.  It's not too late.  Even those on or just inland of the barrier islands.

[geo1]

Found this webcam: 

www.beachcamusa.com/tx/Galveston/galveston-seawall-cam. Not sure that pier is going to survive.

[KPITSnow]

I'm glad this thread is open, so now I can say that I am sick of people downplaying these storms. I will take overstating something every time if it means the one time the worst case happens people are told to leave and do.

 

WTH is wrong with people...even on here you have people downplaying this. Why would you play Russian roulette with your life? 

 

Also, any official who downplays this or balks at issuing evac orders should be tarred and feathered.

[Windspeed]

MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0726
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1052 AM EDT FRI AUG 25 2017

AREAS AFFECTED...MIDDLE TX COAST

CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY

VALID 251451Z - 252051Z

SUMMARY...HURRICANE HARVEY'S CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE ASHORE THE MIDDLE TX COAST SHORTLY.  HOURLY RAIN
AMOUNTS TO 3" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS TO 6" ARE EXPECTED.

DISCUSSION...HURRICANE HARVEY CONTINUES MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH
PER THE LATEST NHC ADVISORY.  THE SYSTEM HAS RECENTLY EXHIBITED A
DOUBLE EYEWALL STRUCTURE WITH THIRD NEARBY INNER SPIRAL BAND
EVIDENT, AND THE LEADING EDGE OF ITS CDO LIES WITHIN AN HOUR OF
THE COAST.  PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE ~2.5" PER RECENT GPS
DATA.  INFLOW AT 850 HPA IS CYCLONIC NEAR THE COAST AT 30-50 KTS
PER VAD WIND PROFILES.  ML CAPE VALUES OF 500-2500 J/KG LIE FROM
THE COASTLINE OFFSHORE INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.  THE LEADING EDGE
OF A BROAD DEW POINT DISCONTINUITY EXTENDS JUST OFFSHORE THE
MIDDLE TX COAST.

THE MESOSCALE GUIDANCE APPEARS SOMEWHAT SLOW WITH THE
PRECIPITATION PROGRESSION OF THE CDO.  THE BROWNSVILLE TX RADAR
SHOWS OCCASIONAL HOURLY RAIN TOTALS UP TO 2" OFFSHORE, BUT AMOUNTS
COULD BE AMPLIFIED ONCE ONSHORE DUE TO FRICTIONAL CONVERGENCE AND
A REINFORCEMENT OF THE BOUNDARY NEAR THE COAST CAUSED BY THE
RAINFALL ITSELF (A RAIN-INDUCED WEDGE SITUATION), WHICH WOULD MOVE
SLOWLY NORTHWEST AHEAD OF THE STORM'S CDO.  SHOULD THE SYSTEM NOT
COMPLETE ITS EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE, THE OUTERMOST EYEWALL
COULD REACH THE COAST AT THE END OF THE MPD HORIZON.  HOURLY RAIN
TOTALS UP TO 3" WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS UP TO 6" ARE EXPECTED.  THIS
SHOULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING, PARTICULARLY WITHIN URBAN AREAS.

ROTH

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...EWX...HGX...

ATTN...RFC...WGRFC...

LAT...LON   29679565 29099503 28799545 27949682 26829744
            27409789 28069793 28779756 29449662

[cheese007]

Update on the folks I mentioned in League City in the main thread: they're refusing to leave as they're worried about traffic and their local was fine during previous storms. Def a hint of "media isn't hyping this so don't care" as well

[Windspeed]

STORM SURGE WARNING
NWS CORPUS CHRISTI TX
1030 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017
 
TXZ243-252308-
/O.CON.KCRP.SS.W.1009.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
1030 AM CDT FRI AUG 25 2017
 
...Storm Surge Warning issued August 25 at 10:29AM CDT by NWS Corpus
Christi TX...
 
* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Corpus Christi
- Port Aransas
- Robstown
 
* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Equivalent Cat 2 Hurricane force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 70-90 mph with gusts to 110 mph
- Window for Tropical Storm force winds: until Sunday evening
- Window for Hurricane force winds: early this evening until
Saturday night
 
- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- Remain braced against the reasonable threat for major
hurricane force wind greater than 110 mph of equivalent
Category 3 intensity or higher.
- To be safe, efforts should fully focus on protecting life.
Properties remain subject to devastating to catastrophic
wind impacts.
- Now is the time to urgently hide from the wind. Failure to
adequately shelter may result in serious injury, loss of
life, or immense human suffering. Remain sheltered until
the hazardous wind subsides. Be ready to quickly move to
the safest place within your shelter if extreme wind
warnings are issued.
 
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Unfolding
- Potential impacts from the main wind event are unfolding.
 
* STORM SURGE
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Life-threatening storm surge possible
- Peak Storm Surge Inundation: The potential for 5-8 feet
above ground somewhere within surge prone areas
- Window of concern: Begins late this morning
 
- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: High
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- Emergency planning should include a reasonable threat for
major storm surge flooding of greater than 6 feet above
ground.
- To be safe, aggressively prepare for the potential of
extensive storm surge flooding impacts. Evacuation efforts
should now be underway.
- Life-threatening inundation is possible. Failure to heed
evacuation orders may result in serious injury, significant
loss of life, or human suffering. Leave if evacuation
orders are given for your area. Consider voluntary
evacuation if recommended. Poor decisions may result in
being cut off or needlessly risk lives.
 
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Extensive
- Large areas of deep inundation with storm surge flooding
accentuated by battering waves. Structural damage to
buildings, with several washing away. Damage compounded by
floating debris. Locations may be uninhabitable for an
extended period.
- Large sections of near-shore escape routes and secondary
roads washed out or severely flooded. Flood control systems
and barriers may become stressed.
- Severe beach erosion with significant dune loss.
- Major damage to marinas, docks, boardwalks, and piers. Many
small craft broken away from moorings, especially in
unprotected anchorages with some lifted onshore and
stranded.
 
* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Flash Flood Watch is in effect
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: Additional 12-18 inches, with
locally higher amounts
 
- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Extreme
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- Emergency considerations should include a threat of
flooding.
- Be safe and remain ready to protect against flooding rain
impacts.
- If flood related watches and warnings are in effect, heed
recommended actions.
 
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Devastating to Catastrophic
- Extreme rainfall flooding may prompt numerous evacuations
and rescues.
- Rivers and tributaries may overwhelmingly overflow their
banks in many places with deep moving water. Small streams,
creeks, canals, and ditches may become raging rivers. Flood
control systems and barriers may become stressed.
- Flood waters can enter numerous structures within multiple
communities, some structures becoming uninhabitable or
washed away. Numerous places where flood waters may cover
escape routes. Streets and parking lots become rivers of
raging water with underpasses submerged. Driving conditions
become very dangerous. Numerous road and bridge closures
with some weakened or washed out.
 
* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is somewhat favorable for tornadoes
 
- CURRENT THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Elevated
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- Emergency considerations should include a reasonable threat
for tornadoes.
- Be safe and remain ready to protect against tornado
impacts. Stay informed.
- Listen for tornado watches and warnings. If a tornado
approaches, quickly move to the safest place within your
shelter.
 
- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- The occurrence of isolated tornadoes can hinder the
execution of emergency plans during tropical events.
- A few places may experience tornado damage, along with
power and communications disruptions.
- Locations could realize roofs peeled off buildings,
chimneys toppled, mobile homes pushed off foundations or
overturned, large tree tops and branches snapped off,
shallow-rooted trees knocked over, moving vehicles blown
off roads, and small boats pulled from moorings.
 
* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- http://www.weather.gov/srh/tropical?office=crp
 
LAT...LON 2786 9760 2784 9758 2786 9755 2784 9736
          2775 9736 2770 9720 2778 9719 2781 9723
          2788 9713 2783 9705 2778 9706 2776 9711
          2773 9711 2756 9723 2757 9749 2756 9752
          2757 9753 2759 9750 2765 9750 2768 9747
          2770 9753 2780 9749 2781 9752 2780 9755
          2786 9764 2789 9764 2791 9761 2786 9760
LAT...LON 2796 9781 2792 9777 2794 9772 2791 9767
          2786 9766 2784 9769 2788 9772 2786 9783
          2797 9784 2799 9781 2797 9780 2796 9781
 
$$

 

A lot of Surge Warnings out like above so please see here for the rest:

http://www.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=crp&wwa=all

[bch2014]

Rainy and breezy here in inside the loop here in Houston. Wrapping up class this AM and then headed to Waco to stay with my cousins for the weekend. All my friends at Rice are planning on staying and partying.

[wendy]

12 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Update on the folks I mentioned in League City in the main thread: they're refusing to leave as they're worried about traffic and their local was fine during previous storms. Def a hint of "media isn't hyping this so don't care" as well

Yeah I just checked out the League City website and they haven't updated their info since yesterday afternoon. Do they understand that, for example, Ike was east of them, but this storm is west of them so they're on the storm surge side? They're under a storm surge warning for 4-7 feet. This website shows the difference in flooding if Ike had been west of Galveston Bay, instead of down the middle. https://www.texastribune.org/hell-and-high-water/

I think part of the problem is they're not under a Hurricane warning, just Tropical Storm, and so that downplays the danger.

[cheese007]

3 minutes ago, wendy said:

Yeah I just checked out the League City website and they haven't updated their info since yesterday afternoon. Do they understand that, for example, Ike was east of them, but this storm is west of them so they're on the storm surge side? They're under a storm surge warning for 4-7 feet. This website shows the difference in flooding if Ike had been west of Galveston Bay, instead of down the middle. https://www.texastribune.org/hell-and-high-water/

I think part of the problem is they're not under a Hurricane warning, just Tropical Storm, and so that downplays the danger.

Worst part is per FEMA the house is in a 500 year floodplain 

[Eskimo Joe]

Top news headlines are: Gary Cohn, Venezuela sanctions and whether school bus stops are safe.

[cheese007]

12 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Top news headlines are: Gary Cohn, Venezuela sanctions and whether school bus stops are safe.

Wondering if this will be like the floods in Louisiana last year that got no news coverage save for when Trump visited?

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, cheese007 said:

Wondering if this will be like the floods in Louisiana last year that got no news coverage save for when Trump visited?

Watching local news out of Corpus Christi and they interviewed a pastor who advised his congregation to stay and pray the storm will weaken.  There sure is a different attitude towards stuff down there and it's really mind boggling.

[NorthArlington101]

Watching local news out of Corpus Christi and they interviewed a pastor who advised his congregation to stay and pray the storm will weaken.  There sure is a different attitude towards stuff down there and it's really mind boggling.

Watched CNN and there was an fairly elderly looking lady, but she must have just been 50-55 because she said she was staying there (Corpus) to be a caretaker to an older lady. The two reasons she wouldn't leave? She believed in God and believed in her work. They apparently have food/water and boarded up windows but I'm concerned for them.

[cheese007]

5 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Watching local news out of Corpus Christi and they interviewed a pastor who advised his congregation to stay and pray the storm will weaken.  There sure is a different attitude towards stuff down there and it's really mind boggling.

Not shocking if you've lived in TX. People here very skeptical of authority. Lots of similar attitudes up here in DFW regarding tornadoes and severe thunderstorms. Though that's changed a bit thanks to the Garland/Rowlett Tornado in 2015 and the series of major hailstorms we've had the past two springs. Probably something like one out of every 20 cars I see has major hail damage 

 

Similar note: a friend has a dad in Corpus who is refusing to leave. He lived through a strong hurricane once so he thinks this will be fine

[jburns]

47 minutes ago, cheese007 said:

Update on the folks I mentioned in League City in the main thread: they're refusing to leave as they're worried about traffic and their local was fine during previous storms. Def a hint of "media isn't hyping this so don't care" as well

OK Lets do a quick analysis of the consequences of a wrong choice.

1. Evacuating: Storm is not as wet as forecasted. Strongest winds miss your area.  

..............Consequences of the wrong choice: Spent several hours in heavy traffic on the interstate.  Spent money on a crappy motel for a few nights.  

 

2. Staying: Storm is as forecasted or worse. Widespread flooding including numerous dam failures. Floods reach areas that have never flooded since records began.  

..............Consequences of the wrong choice: A week after the storm mask wearing rescue workers use a gaff to pull the gas filled bloated bodies of you and your family from the putrid water and take them to an area where 100s of other unidentified bodies are temporarily stored pending identification.  

 

So, using the risk and reward method make your choice.  Hopefully, you will make one you can live with.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, jburns said:

OK Lets do a quick analysis of the consequences of a wrong choice.

1. Evacuating: Storm is not as wet as forecasted. Strongest winds miss your area.  

..............Consequences of the wrong choice: Spent several hours in heavy traffic on the interstate.  Spent money on a crappy motel for a few nights.  

 

2. Staying: Storm is as forecasted or worse. Widespread flooding including numerous dam failures. Floods reach areas that have never flooded since records began.  

..............Consequences of the wrong choice: A week after the storm mask wearing rescue workers use a gaff to pull the gas filled bloated bodies of you and your family from the putrid water and take them to an area where 100s of other unidentified bodies are temporarily stored pending identification.  

 

So, using the risk and reward method make your choice.  Hopefully, you will make one you can live with.

After working as an emergency manager and volunteer fire fighter for some time I can say this with confidence:  People would rather risk their lives than be inconvenienced for a short period of time.  It's that simple.  During June 2006 over 400 people were evacuated for 2 days because our largest dam in the county was leaking and there was legitimate fear that it would fail.  People were outraged that evacuations were ordered and tried to sneak back home through barriers because they did not believe us.  We worked around the clock for three days to shore up the dam, but there was downright anger that we inconvenienced people.  It continues to numb my mind that people think this way.  

[jburns]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

After working as an emergency manager and volunteer fire fighter for some time I can say this with confidence:  People would rather risk their lives than be inconvenienced for a short period of time.  It's that simple.  During June 2006 over 400 people were evacuated for 2 days because our largest dam in the county was leaking and there was legitimate fear that it would fail.  People were outraged that evacuations were ordered and tried to sneak back home through barriers because they did not believe us.  We worked around the clock for three days to shore up the dam, but there was downright anger that we inconvenienced people.  It continues to numb my mind that people think this way.  

That's their choice but at least doing a risk and reward analysis means they thought about it, no matter how shallowly, before they made the decision. You can't fix stupid.  

BTW, your efforts that saved the dam proved to the ones that wouldn't leave that they were right. Sometimes you can't win.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, jburns said:

That's their choice but at least doing a risk and reward analysis means they thought about it, no matter how shallowly, before they made the decision. You can't fix stupid.  

BTW, your efforts that saved the dam proved to the ones that wouldn't leave that they were right. Sometimes you can't win.

Another trend that we've been experiencing since 2009 is fear that we are using a disaster to implement a police state and confiscate personal property.  Disaster conspiracy theories peddled by certain online actors have made legitimate emergency management work very difficult.

[cheese007]

8 minutes ago, jburns said:

OK Lets do a quick analysis of the consequences of a wrong choice.

1. Evacuating: Storm is not as wet as forecasted. Strongest winds miss your area.  

..............Consequences of the wrong choice: Spent several hours in heavy traffic on the interstate.  Spent money on a crappy motel for a few nights.  

 

2. Staying: Storm is as forecasted or worse. Widespread flooding including numerous dam failures. Floods reach areas that have never flooded since records began.  

..............Consequences of the wrong choice: A week after the storm mask wearing rescue workers use a gaff to pull the gas filled bloated bodies of you and your family from the putrid water and take them to an area where 100s of other unidentified bodies are temporarily stored pending identification.  

 

So, using the risk and reward method make your choice.  Hopefully, you will make one you can live with.

 

Oh yeah I agree 100%. It's just that I'm in my mid 20s and barely know this person and she's lived there pretty much her whole life (she's in her 60s). If the news media isn't dedicating 100% of their time to this storm + mandatory evacs are not being ordered she's one of those people who aren't gonna budge. Especially since there's a fairly common view that weather peeps don't have a clue since Ike wasn't as bad as predicted 

[Witness Protection Program]

1 hour ago, cheese007 said:

Update on the folks I mentioned in League City in the main thread: they're refusing to leave as they're worried about traffic and their local was fine during previous storms. Def a hint of "media isn't hyping this so don't care" as well

 

I'm a native Houstonian, been through a bunch of these storms going all the way back into the '60's, and very familiar with the entire region.  Most of League City is at 15 to 25' elevation (maybe down a couple of feet from subsidence over the decades.)  Yes in a Cat 4 storm surge risk you'd want to not take chances and evacuate.  At these point such surge seems extremely unlikely for League City.

As to the inland flooding from the potential for record setting rain, either in one day or over a week, for the vast majority of residences in the Houston area the worst case flooding would be in the inconvenience category, not life threatening.  The reason is because the area is so relatively flat, so most of those in a 500-year flood plain is not the same as being in a 500-year floodway in a lot of other places, where the topography funnels runoff into creeks and river with more defined slopes.  In much of Houston, once flooding tops the creek banks, a 5 foot rise over that could spread out to a mile or more in width.  Which translates into most Houston homes have never before flooded, and even if their local area gets 40 inches of rain, the worst risk is perhaps a foot of water inside their homes.  A costly and lousy annoyance, perhaps for days, but (except for the elderly or those with medical risks) not nearly the same as a life threatening flooding to near rooftops or higher.  Of course there are homes in some areas like near the major bayous that are indeed at risk of potential life-threatening flooding, but many of those have already flooded before. 

We have a home on the southeast side of the Houston metro area at 35' elevation.  Very typical neighborhood, the first floor elevation is about 4 feet above the street.  Floods have gotten into the yard a zillion times, and once within a foot of the floor elevation.  If all the drains clogged up and rainfall just built up instead of running off (for the first time ever), each foot of rain in the entire region would only add at most another 1.2 feet of floodwater rise in my neighborhood.  Because it is that flat and that low density suburban developed.  

Thus when other posters tell my family, and fellow Houston area neighbors, and all those living in 2nd floor apartments, etc. to 'GTF out or risk death!' it gets tuned out real quick.  I wish posters would look at actual elevations and storm surge maps made by the professionals.

[Eskimo Joe]

Another thing I'm seeing on local news is that "it's just a Category 2" so psychologically folks don't believe it's going to be that bad.  Then again when you hear folks say "it's only going to be a foot of rain" and don't bat an eye you just need to let them do their thing.

[Witness Protection Program]

1 hour ago, wendy said:

37 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Watching local news out of Corpus Christi and they interviewed a pastor who advised his congregation to stay and pray the storm will weaken.  There sure is a different attitude towards stuff down there and it's really mind boggling.

 

Most of Corpus Christi's residences sit at 20 to 40' in elevation, outside of even the Cat 5 storm surge risk zones.  Do they really need to evacuate?  So is the weather service wrong with their "Run from the water, hide from the winds" advice?  Most of the town sits on the edge of a 20' bluff by the bay, so the extended rain will mostly run off.

Further, a lot of them are working class and don't have the financial resources for an extended evacuation vacation.  And several days in a storm shelter can be pretty tough in a different way.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, Witness Protection Program said:

Most of Corpus Christi's residences sit at 20 to 40' in elevation.  Do they really need to evacuate?

Further, a lot of them are working class and don't have the financial resources for an extended evacuation vacation.  And several days in a storm shelter can be pretty tough in a different way.

I'm not arguing for mass evacuations of everyone, I'm talking about knowing your risk and realizing there are certain times, such as this, that you need to expect anamalous conditions.  The pastor being interviewed was 3 blocks Nueces Bay (you could see it in the background), but he wanted people to ride out the storm in his church and pray.  Stuff like that is silly.

[wendy]

Interesting blog post from a guy who specializes in storm surge (and also lives on the Gulf and is familiar with the area) - http://wxshift.com/news/blog/harveys-rain-and-surge-flooding-could-be-catastrophic

He is concerned with areas along the west of Galveston Bay (like League City) getting compound flooding, where the storm surge prevents the rainwater runoff from draining.

Quote

I am writing this blog post because it passed the "grandma" test. I asked myself if my grandma lived in a high compound-flooding risk area if I would speak up, and then I realized I would be going to her house immediately and urging her to take precautions. If my grandma lived in southeast Houston, Galveston, Bolivar, or any of the communities west of Galveston Bay, I would feel uneasy about her safety during this long-duration storm and feel much better if she evacuated at least north or west of Houston.

 

[sauss06]

27 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

After working as an emergency manager and volunteer fire fighter for some time I can say this with confidence:  People would rather risk their lives than be inconvenienced for a short period of time.  It's that simple.  During June 2006 over 400 people were evacuated for 2 days because our largest dam in the county was leaking and there was legitimate fear that it would fail.  People were outraged that evacuations were ordered and tried to sneak back home through barriers because they did not believe us.  We worked around the clock for three days to shore up the dam, but there was downright anger that we inconvenienced people.  It continues to numb my mind that people think this way.  

Agreed. Many years ago ( i think 95-96) when the Susquehanna was frozen and we had that flooding, we tried to get people to evac along the river. one family had a son who was a quad due to car wreck, they refused. 2 days later many were put under great personal risk to get him out of the house. 

**** doesn't make sense. If people refuse to leave, nobody should go back for them

[Eskimo Joe]

Galveston OEM reports some water starting to over top feeder roads on I-45 south of Bayou Vista

[Eskimo Joe]

Corpus Christi local news livestream.  Finally sinking in for the locals:  http://www.kiiitv.com/news/live_breaking/kiii-breaking-news/280701833

[clskinsfan]

1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Another trend that we've been experiencing since 2009 is fear that we are using a disaster to implement a police state and confiscate personal property.  Disaster conspiracy theories peddled by certain online actors have made legitimate emergency management work very difficult.

Evacuation can lead to you losing your personal property and it can have nothing to do with the state. Looting during natural disasters is very real. And many people feel they need to be there to protect their property. I dont necessarily agree with those people. But their reason for staying isnt stupid either.