Paragon Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 7 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Some of the best rates I have ever seen. Visabilty down to a few hundred feet in amytville and insane thunder Well it's over here now and the sky has brightened up considerably. Flood warning ended here at 10:30 AM which was perfect timing (no sarcasm- they were spot on.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 Sharp rainfall gradient with only .15 at Wantagh. Rapid increase near and north of the Southern State. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 Boy the CAM soundings are innnntttteresting for later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: Sharp rainfall gradient with only .15 and Wantagh. Rapid increase near and north of the Southern State. Chris, we've discussed the lack of convective rainfall/snowfall on the south shore being due to the stabilizing influence of the ocean, why is it that the Jersey shore (especially Monmouth and Ocean counties) jackpot with these kind of events (both in the summer and the winter)? Is it because of the orientation of the coastline there is more conducive to it than the coastline of LI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: Sharp rainfall gradient with only .15 and Wantagh. Rapid increase near and north of the Southern State. According to that we got about 0.3" here....what has JFK gotten so far? According to that graphic, there's a spot of 1.5"+ near there! Sun is out in full force now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 Mt. Sinai is currently reporting 1.38" with a rainfall rate of 1.34" per hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 6 minutes ago, Paragon said: Chris, we've discussed the lack of convective rainfall/snowfall on the south shore being due to the stabilizing influence of the ocean, why is it that the Jersey shore (especially Monmouth and Ocean counties) jackpot with these kind of events (both in the summer and the winter)? Is it because of the orientation of the coastline there is more conducive to it than the coastline of LI? The warm front loves to set up just north of the South Shore just like with seabreeze fronts. So these morning warm front convective events tend to focus just to our north. Sometimes when we get stronger frontal wave development, the jackpot is right on the South Shore like on 8-14-11 when Long Beach got 10" in under 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: The warm front loves to set up just north of the South Shore just like with seabreeze fronts. So these morning warm front convective events tend to focus just to our north. Sometimes when we get stronger frontal wave development the jackpot is right on the South Shore like on 8-14-11 when Long Beach got 10" in under 12 hours. Yes that was a huge month for us. I remember that specific event was one of the biggest (maybe the biggest) rainfall event for this area- and that includes tropical systems. Do you think the late afternoon/evening part of the event might be a bigger deal than what we just had? Or will this serve to stabilize the atmosphere some? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: Yes that was a huge month for us. I remember that specific event was one of the biggest (maybe the biggest) rainfall event for this area- and that includes tropical systems. Do you think the late afternoon/evening part of the event might be a bigger deal than what we just had? Or will this serve to stabilize the atmosphere some? The HRRR has most of the stronger activity down in South Jersey, but we could still see some heavier downpours given the current atmospheric conditions in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The HRRR has most of the stronger activity down in South Jersey, but we could still see some heavier downpours given the current atmospheric conditions in place. Yeah South Jersey has gotten some of the biggest totals this summer, but it would be nice to see part of that extend up here. Haven't really seen any kind of trend north this year so far though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 9 minutes ago, Paragon said: Yes that was a huge month for us. I remember that specific event was one of the biggest (maybe the biggest) rainfall event for this area- and that includes tropical systems. Do you think the late afternoon/evening part of the event might be a bigger deal than what we just had? Or will this serve to stabilize the atmosphere some? My other record in Long Beach was 5.15 in just under 2 hours on 6-22-95. But many times the axis of these events is just inland from the South Shore beaches. It's all about the 90 degree angle of the coast in the NY Bight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: May other record in Long Beach was 5.15 in just under 2 hours on 6-22-95. But many times the axis of these events is just inland from the South Shore beaches. It's all about the 90 degree angle of the coast in the NY Bight. Oh that explains why the Jersey Shore gets a lot more..... Funny thing about 1995, two months after that event we were in the midst of a drought and wildfires all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sn0waddict Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 Absolutely downpouring here, kinda surprised we don't have a flash flood warning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 1 minute ago, Paragon said: Oh that explains why the Jersey Shore gets a lot more..... Funny thing about 1995, two months after that event we were in the midst of a drought and wildfires all over the place. Yeah, August 1995 was one our our driest months along with Jul 1999. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah, August 1995 was one our our driest months along with Jul 1999. I liked July 1999 more (because we hit 100- no 100 degrees on the south shore in 1995 and July 1999 was part of the 11 yr cycle of hot summers that set records, to be broken in 2010, 11 years later.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 19 minutes ago, bluewave said: My other record in Long Beach was 5.15 in just under 2 hours on 6-22-95. But many times the axis of these events is just inland from the South Shore beaches. It's all about the 90 degree angle of the coast in the NY Bight. What about September 07!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 11 minutes ago, Paragon said: I liked July 1999 more (because we hit 100- no 100 degrees on the south shore in 1995 and July 1999 was part of the 11 yr cycle of hot summers that set records, to be broken in 2010, 11 years later.) Yeah, I remember that very well. Numerous reports of cars stuck in flooding around Huntington. Looks like around 3" there in about an hour. http://www.nbcnewyork.com/news/local/Showers-and-Storms-Move-in-Overnight-Will-Bring-Soggy-Morning-Commute-440974593.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 19 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: What about September 07!! You mean October? I was on Park Street which turned into a lake. It was a quick 2-3". We were also under a tornado warning. But the couplet weakened as it came ashore with hardly any wind where I was. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 403 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN NASSAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... * UNTIL 430 PM EDT... * AT 358 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 13 MILES SOUTH OF ATLANTIC BEACH...OR ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTH OF LONG BEACH...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... ATLANTIC BEACH...LONG BEACH...CEDARHURST AND WOODMERE BY 430 PM... BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 427 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN NASSAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... * UNTIL 630 PM EDT... * AT 425 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED FLASH FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNED AREA IN LONG BEACH...AND RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 1.94" rain in Smithtown this morning, mostly between 9:30 and 10:30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 9 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said: 1.94" rain in Smithtown this morning, mostly between 9:30 and 10:30. 2.14 just to your west in commack, areas further NW around Huntington received over 3". Some decent CTG bolts as well. Fun times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 The 12z RGEM is the only model I've seen so far today that hits our area hard for round 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 18 minutes ago, bluewave said: You mean October? I was on Park Street which turned into a lake. It was a quick 2-3". We were also under a tornado warning. But the couplet weakened as it came ashore with hardly any wind where I was. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 403 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN NASSAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... * UNTIL 430 PM EDT... * AT 358 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 13 MILES SOUTH OF ATLANTIC BEACH...OR ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTH OF LONG BEACH...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... ATLANTIC BEACH...LONG BEACH...CEDARHURST AND WOODMERE BY 430 PM... BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 427 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN NASSAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... * UNTIL 630 PM EDT... * AT 425 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED FLASH FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNED AREA IN LONG BEACH...AND RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. And there was October 2005, when we received close to 20" of rain for the month (and areas further east had nearly two feet of rain!) Wettest month on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: You mean October? I was on Park Street which turned into a lake. It was a quick 2-3". We were also under a tornado warning. But the couplet weakened as it came ashore with hardly any wind where I was. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED TORNADO WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 403 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A * TORNADO WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN NASSAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... * UNTIL 430 PM EDT... * AT 358 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO 13 MILES SOUTH OF ATLANTIC BEACH...OR ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTH OF LONG BEACH...MOVING NORTH AT 20 MPH. * THE TORNADO WILL BE NEAR... ATLANTIC BEACH...LONG BEACH...CEDARHURST AND WOODMERE BY 430 PM... BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY 427 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2007 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON NY HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... SOUTHWESTERN NASSAU COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK... * UNTIL 630 PM EDT... * AT 425 PM EDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED FLASH FLOODING FROM THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE WARNED AREA IN LONG BEACH...AND RAINFALL RATES OF 2 TO 3 INCHES PER HOUR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING COMMUTE. EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS. Did we actually get a tornado from that? The last tornado I remember for here was the F2 September 1998 Labor Day event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 FRG reported 1.64 with this mornings storms, ISP 1.19 and still raining as of the 11 AM OBS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 4 minutes ago, Paragon said: Did we actually get a tornado from that? The last tornado I remember for here was the F2 September 1998 Labor Day event. No. The couplet weakened right before it came ashore. Had one of the biggest Long Beach flash flood events between 2000-2009 with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: No. the couplet weakened right before it came ashore. Had one of the better Long Beach flash flood events between 2000-2009 with that one. I remember JFK reported 4-5" with one of these events, I think it might've been that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, Paragon said: I remember JFK reported 4-5" with one of these events, I think it might've been that one. The other big flash flood event was with the Brooklyn tornado in August 2007. That was my first rotating meso in Long Beach as the funnel lifted back into the clouds. One of the coolest things That I ever saw in Long Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: The other big flash flood event was with the Brooklyn tormado in August 2007. That was my first rotating meso in Long Beach as the funnel lifted back into the clouds. One of the coolest things That i ever saw in Long Beach. I remember that- I think that was the one with the 4-5" I was thinking about. Did SW Nassau have a tornado warning with that one too? What a year for big flood events 2007 was! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 8 minutes ago, Paragon said: I remember that- I think that was the one with the 4-5" I was thinking about. Did SW Nassau have a tornado warning with that one too? What a year for big flood events 2007 was! Yeah, the NWS carried the tornado warning into SW Nassau. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Yeah, the NWS carried the tornado warning into SW Nassau. That was also a late afternoon event wasn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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