ldub23 Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 8 minutes ago, bigtenfan said: Looking at the 12z guidance it would appear to my untrained eye that the GFS GEFS Euro and the Hurricane models HWRF and HMON have all either lost or dissipated Inv92 over the next several days at least as far as it being a threat to the CONUS. The Canadian has its usual wacky solution with a 1938 style track. The UK has what looks to be a weak system in the northern Bahamas at hour 144. I admit that I am new to this but am I reading theses models correctly? thanks in advance Yes you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 Looks like the 18z GFS has a storm signal pretty much in the same place that the CMC has finally lets see if its a trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 Chances down to 50% in latest NHC discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 13 hours ago, bigtenfan said: Chances down to 50% in latest NHC discussion. Now 40% in their 8am update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 19, 2017 Share Posted August 19, 2017 CMC continues to show a big storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 Shear is weakening. But I don't even think there is a broad surface circulation with this disturbance now. Just some weak vorticity in the mid levels. This mess will still have an opportunity to develop in the Bahamas or near the SE coast in the coming days however. Still bears watching for development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 If it can sit under a huge high to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 NHC for 92L Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Hope they are wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 2 hours ago, Snow88 said: NHC for 92L Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Hope they are wrong Well they are the experts but then again like anyone else in the weather business they are prone to being wrong every so often. You are also talking about probabilities so nothing is definite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 GFS develops a strong storm but stays well offshore CMC hits SE Florida and then rides just offshore and then goes OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 High in perfect position if something does develop underneath it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 20, 2017 Author Share Posted August 20, 2017 With as wet as its been here, especially West of the Hudson, we're in major trouble if a TC gets close enough to dump tropical rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bobbutts Posted August 20, 2017 Share Posted August 20, 2017 Pretty nice run of the Canadian model there. Hugs the coast FL to Maine. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2017082012&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 Cmc still shows a big storm near the coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted August 21, 2017 Share Posted August 21, 2017 Looking at the CMC vs everybody else either the CMC will be a laughing stock or it will pull off the biggest coup since The EPS for Sandy Nothing in between Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SteveVa Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 While everyone s focusing on what could be historic flooding from Harvey, I'll draw attention to 92L Both 12z ECMWF and 18z GFS develop the system. As I'm typing this the latest GFS develops 92L from a 1006mb depression to a 987mb storm from Hatteras to Cape Cod. LOL Now that we have two main models hinting at development, the system bears watching. Plus, t's gonna be pretty close to SE coast riding the Gulf Stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJV Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 92L's dropped 2.93" over Ave Maria in the last 72 hours (as of 830am this morning). To me anyway, the satellite presentation is showing signs of organization---even though the atmosphere over sw FL has been 'worked over' pretty well. Ensemble guidance depiction of this disturbance--- for a track into the far southeastern Gulf and then an exit northeastward into the Atlantic Basin --- appears to have been a decent solution. At this point in time---no reason to dismiss a solution that takes a track across the Gulf Stream and north-northeastward along the US East Coast. PS---problem I always dealt with in the medium range forecast process (when at WPC)---was where a "perfect prog timing" of a tropical's intensification could be taken verbatim vs. 'thrown out'. Especially beyond the day 4-5 time frame. The way 'Harvey' morphed is a good example of that forecast process and I would think that 92L's got a few surprises left too. Nice to see many others (like SteveVa and others in this entire discussion stream) being 'vigilant' and observant with these disturbance. Glad I'm a part of this and can get a good feel of what's going on---based on what others are seeing and writing. I don't actually have to 'work at it' anymore---thanks everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 All I know is the Marine forecast for NJ is pretty bad, it screwed up the last full week of fluke fishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 Looks like the majority of the models have this storm hitting the Carolinas and then going OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derecho! Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 On 8/21/2017 at 3:56 PM, Snow88 said: Cmc still shows a big storm near the coast Which is a primitive, worthless tropical model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 Does appear to be getting organized fairly quickly ATM, given the time frame there wont be a lot of warning for the SC/NC coast as it will be here in less than 48 hrs, the upside is there doesnt appear to be much support for it being anything more than a middle of the road TS.....biggest issue is maybe 3-6" rain east of I95 in the Carolinas and some sound surge issues as it doesnt take much to move the water around in Pamlico Sound. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 92L developing nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJV Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 92L-related rainfall so far today 1.55" as of 200pm EDT---since start of event (Wed aft 8/23) ---6.05" here @ Panther Run GC. Getting about 1-1.5" a day, so water's draining off at a decent rate. No flooding. Canals and retention ponds heading into Naples this morning filling up though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 Advisories will be initiated on PTC 10 at 5 PM EDT. Will probably include tropical storm advisories for the Carolinas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 NHC will start advisories on PTC 10 at 5pm.... damn ninjis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted August 27, 2017 Share Posted August 27, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 28, 2017 Author Share Posted August 28, 2017 We have TD#10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PackGrad05 Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Surprised there hasn't been more discussion about this. Could cause some wind/rain/erosion for coastal NC and other areas. Something to watch at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 Air Force Recon En Route Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mfgmfg Posted August 29, 2017 Share Posted August 29, 2017 Think this will cause widespread damage in Great Britain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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