NJwx85 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 We now have a designated 92L, which has been given better odds of development than 91L and you can understand why when you compare the two IR loops. Their definitely appears to be a vigorous circulation already present with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 91L could serve to make the atmosphere more conducive (by helping to erode the Saharan air layer) for the development of 92L. So let it be the "sacrificial lamb." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 2 hours ago, Paragon said: 91L could serve to make the atmosphere more conducive (by helping to erode the Saharan air layer) for the development of 92L. So let it be the "sacrificial lamb." I hear that alot yet it never happens. I saw on TWC the same ol nothing. It might be a 1 one day wonder then get zapped west of 60. Total yawn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 Jeez. I just looped the last vis. 92L sure looks darn good. Really can see the rotation. I am going to guess if things continue on this trend for the next 3 hours the NHC will bump up developing chances quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 From what i can see the models have pretty much dropped 91 and 92 and now somehow develop the wave behind them. I think it will have the same trouble they all have. 92 could pull a don and croak over open tropical water a day or 2 after it gets named but it is no threat to anyone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 6 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Jeez. I just looped the last vis. 92L sure looks darn good. Really can see the rotation. I am going to guess if things continue on this trend for the next 3 hours the NHC will bump up developing chances quite a bit. 92L looks promising for sure and the path is clear for additional development. The early season African Easterly Jet may have flipped us over a threshold, breaking the cap over the MDR unlike prior years. Unwilling to comment on the future track of this system. The models keep playing with a PV streamer near 60W. The Euro EPS is about equally divided between recurve and Hebert Box. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
larrye Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 2 hours ago, Paragon said: 91L could serve to make the atmosphere more conducive (by helping to erode the Saharan air layer) for the development of 92L. So let it be the "sacrificial lamb." I was under the impression that a prior storm moving along the same or similar path actually makes it less conducive for another to strengthen due to the upwelling of the ocean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 2 minutes ago, larrye said: I was under the impression that a prior storm moving along the same or similar path actually makes it less conducive for another to strengthen due to the upwelling of the ocean. I seriously doubt any of these waves will be strong enough to cause any upwelling. As far as waves moistening up the atmosphere i think that is just a myth. Plenty of SAL out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/ecmwf-oper/2017081512/slp8.png This appears to be the wave behind 92. I dont see either the gfs or euro doing anything with 91 or 92. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 18z Early Cycle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 1 hour ago, ldub23 said: From what i can see the models have pretty much dropped 91 and 92 and now somehow develop the wave behind them. I think it will have the same trouble they all have. 92 could pull a don and croak over open tropical water a day or 2 after it gets named but it is no threat to anyone. What's going to cause this to not be a late developer like 99L was? It could remain weak for a long time (which will aid in keeping it on a west track as opposed to northwest, and then strengthen as it gets closer to the islands.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Drz1111 Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 1 hour ago, Paragon said: What's going to cause this to not be a late developer like 99L was? It could remain weak for a long time (which will aid in keeping it on a west track as opposed to northwest, and then strengthen as it gets closer to the islands.) The well-defined low pressure and already-deep and concentrated convection, maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 Just now, WxWatcher007 said: IMO, the environment for 92L is quite a bit different from the one 99L saw when it emerged from the African coast. First (and probably most important), the environment around it is a lot more moist. When 99L came off the coast it was absolutely harassed by the SAL. Here, the orientation of the SAL has been a bit different (deepest plume further north), and I think 91L has done a good job of keeping the environment ahead moist. That's a contributor in allowing 92L to keep a nice area of convection. Second, the shear (for now at least) looks to be pretty favorable for development. As the NHC says, the upper level environment becomes a bit more hostile toward the weekend, but for now, the environment isn't bad, and much better than the stuff 99L ran into initially. I'd keep watching the SAL. Yesterday it wasn't as close to 91L and now I think we're seeing it get close. I don't think 92L has a well defined low quite yet, though it has been organizing today and has had impressive bursts of convection. Thanks, that illustrates it quite nicely! What's going to make the atmosphere more hostile towards the weekend, increased shear? About the SAL, it seems to be a persistent problem this season, what causes it to be more of a problem in some seasons vs others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 4 minutes ago, Paragon said: Thanks, that illustrates it quite nicely! What's going to make the atmosphere more hostile towards the weekend, increased shear? About the SAL, it seems to be a persistent problem this season, what causes it to be more of a problem in some seasons vs others? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ldub23 Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 2 hours ago, Paragon said: What's going to cause this to not be a late developer like 99L was? It could remain weak for a long time (which will aid in keeping it on a west track as opposed to northwest, and then strengthen as it gets closer to the islands.) I suppose it could but NHC says upper winds will be far less conducive by the weekend and it will still be embedded in dry air as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJV Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 The guys I worked with on the medium range desk at WPC did carry a wave off the se coast of Fla day 7---but it's just a carry over from Tuesday's 1pm call with HNC. But it makes sense since the ensemble guidance carries something our way. The day crew (at WPC) actually will be the ones who must coordinate synoptic features with the NHC specialist. You may already know this---maybe not. These calls are usually between the medium range desk, NHC and Navy Norfolk...every day during the summer (hurricane season). It was our ONLY chance to 'help' the NHC get the path going in the 'right' direction beyond their day 5 forecast window. Some of those conversations lend to some funny stories (a la "Sandy' and Gustav). For another time I guess---I'm new to this whole "everybody's got a weather forecast opinion" forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 17, 2017 Author Share Posted August 17, 2017 92L isn't looking half bad this morning. NHC has increased odds of development once again. The track should also be further to the Northeast of 91L and therefore has a greater chance of impacting the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 17, 2017 Author Share Posted August 17, 2017 Looking really good now, would expect the odds of development to be increased again tonight. My guess is they will probably investigate this tomorrow if things continue to look good, especially since this poses a real threat to the US mainland. The 18z guidance tracks this right through the Southern Bahamas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJV Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 Hopefully, this 92L continues to track at it's current pace and --- goes into the GoMex --- and moves just fast enough to keep the qpfs under 2-3 inches with maybe some brief tropical storm force gusts (convective downdrafts) at best. If it indeed moves thru the Florida Straits. Nothing more. At the house, have had 17.16" in June, 8.40" in July and 8.70" so far in August. Another 1-3" --- we could handle...much more than that in a 24-36 hr period, would make for a sloppy mess here in Ave Maria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 Really nice circulation with this wave. Both this and Harvey look robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 18, 2017 Author Share Posted August 18, 2017 Deep convection is now maintaining itself over the center and rotation is very evident on IR. It's probably already a TD if not a minimal TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Deep convection is now maintaining itself over the center and rotation is very evident on IR. It's probably already a TD if not a minimal TS. yeah it looks pretty darn good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 18, 2017 Author Share Posted August 18, 2017 1 minute ago, DopplerWx said: yeah it looks pretty darn good right now. They probably won't upgrade it until tomorrow, but right now it looks better than some of our recent hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 I would say they actually upgrade at 11pm, their wording was strong at the 8pm TWO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 92L has my attention not necessarily for short term developement, but where it will be in four days. Yes, this may well reach TS status over night or in the very near short term, but it will also encounter a developing unfavorable mid-to-upper level environment as is progresses W-WNW over the next 72 hours. However, what has me concerned about a potential Irma is the position of its surface low in 96 hrs, whether it is still a tropical storm or even a weak circulation. If Irma survives the trek north of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola, it may end up positioned in the central Bahamas with a strengthening ridge directly north and a corridor of favorable atmospheric conditions for significant intensification. This could be a real threat to Florida or eventually the GOM down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 18, 2017 Author Share Posted August 18, 2017 How is this not designated as a TD yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 18, 2017 Author Share Posted August 18, 2017 You can see how the Northerly shear is affecting and hindering the convection to the North of the circulation this morning. Harvey is also experiencing some Northerly shear thanks to the same ULL, however the impact on Harvey should be minimal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: You can see how the Northerly shear is affecting and hindering the convection to the North of the circulation this morning. Harvey is also experiencing some Northerly shear thanks to the same ULL, however the impact on Harvey should be minimal. There's a north/south oriented ridge squeezed between the strong ULL near the FL Keys and the trough you mention in the Central Atlantic. Harvey is positioned in the SE side of that ridge, so that's the reason we see NE to E shear affecting it. As Harvey progresses westward, a trough will swing across the CONUS and weaken the SE ridge, allowing the cyclone to put the brakes on and gain latitude. Depending on how much the ridge weakens, it's the latitude gain. Guidance is relatively tightly clustered for the next 3-4 days. Then there's guidance scattering afterwards, with some models slamming Harvey into Central America and never seeing the light in the BoC, and the Euro as far North as the NW GoM, near the TX upper coast. BTW, after slamming the brakes, the atmosphere gets very conducive for development, but there will be land interaction by that time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 18, 2017 Author Share Posted August 18, 2017 5 minutes ago, wxmx said: There's a north/south oriented ridge squeezed between the strong ULL near the FL Keys and the trough you mention in the Central Atlantic. Harvey is positioned in the SE side of that ridge, so that's the reason we see NE to E shear affecting it. As Harvey progresses westward, a trough will swing across the CONUS and weaken the SE ridge, allowing the cyclone to put the brakes on and gain latitude. Depending on how much the ridge weakens, it's the latitude gain. Guidance is relatively tightly clustered for the next 3-4 days. Then there's guidance scattering afterwards, with some models slamming Harvey into Central America and never seeing the light in the BoC, and the Euro as far North as the NW GoM, near the TX upper coast. BTW, after slamming the brakes, the atmosphere gets very conducive for development, but there will be land interaction by that time. The 12z GFS still keeps Harvey weak and into Central America and doesn't develop 92L or the wave behind it into anything meaningful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bigtenfan Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 Looking at the 12z guidance it would appear to my untrained eye that the GFS GEFS Euro and the Hurricane models HWRF and HMON have all either lost or dissipated Inv92 over the next several days at least as far as it being a threat to the CONUS. The Canadian has its usual wacky solution with a 1938 style track. The UK has what looks to be a weak system in the northern Bahamas at hour 144. I admit that I am new to this but am I reading theses models correctly? thanks in advance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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