Carvers Gap Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Weeklies. Weeks 1-4 (basically November) are AN. December actually depicts an upper air pattern favorable to winter. The models jumped the gun on a pattern change. They have reverted back to the warm fall pattern which is not surprising. Trough will restablish in the northern Rockies. Pattern still looks funky as some things are just not settled,. The SER is there but so is a weak ridge over the southwest. To me, I have a hunch this cold settles into the northern Plains and banks up agains the Rockies. As Jeff said...plenty of cold but a mechanism is needed to bring it south. This has the makings of a flip to winter after warm temps in November. The base pattern is warm, but the cold will make intrusions southeast. The PNA ridge pops in December....we will watch that time frame. Also, as Jeff said...the Weeklies are pretty bad during seasonal changes...and they are definitely living up to that rep right now with almost a complete flip from the last run. Past three weeks, take with a huge grain of salt until repetitive runs support a solution...and even then.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 If there is one thing that really interests me about the Weeklies...they do move towards a very blocky look late in the period. Like I said, grain of salt until consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 One more thing to add...with the cold in Canada, when the cold decides to move south (or if bitter cold comes over the pole) it will race across Canada into the lower 48 w snow on the ground. Early indications would make me think that the cold will be more intense at it has less chance to modify. I think places like WI, MN, the MidWest, and the Great Lakes may seems some extremes. Will depend on the SER here as to duration and intensity for the forum area. Might be a good year to be in Memphis. They are long overdue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 27, 2017 Author Share Posted October 27, 2017 I just put very little faith in anything the weeklies show in the extended range. They're already off to a flip-floppy start to fall. One week they're cold, one week they're warm. Since they seem to forecast almost every possible outcome over a given few runs, I guess technically one of their runs will be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 5 minutes ago, John1122 said: I just put very little faith in anything the weeklies show in the extended range. They're already off to a flip-floppy start to fall. One week they're cold, one week they're warm. Since they seem to forecast almost every possible outcome over a given few runs, I guess technically one of their runs will be right. A broken clock is right twice per day. LOL. Yeah, as Jeff noted, they are pretty bad during seasonal changes. It might be argued that other than this past summer, they have struggled for quite some time. They weren't a bad look FWIW...but just tough to really take seriously as they completely flipped. I do think most models are showing warm, but any model showing a lack of cold intrusions is probably wrong as well. I do think that model is a bit warm. So if I see cold show up or even seasonal, that gets my attention. As for winter, I though this current run was actually better if it could be trusted. The ridge in the southwest and SER are causing some problems in their configuration. Seems like most models really want those two features. If so, have to think the pattern is that our cold charges into the Plains and then spreads East...crashing into the SER. That would imply a wet pattern here. The Weeklies do show that. The nice thing about that pattern is that it acts differently deep into winter IMO. The stronger that cold, the more it presses south. Might actually be a stormy winter...rain and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 27, 2017 Author Share Posted October 27, 2017 I could see them being correct this time, or last time. My issues is how wildly they swing. I guess that can be expected with such a long range model. One thing that looks like it's going to come to pass, the upper midwest is going to get cold and stay cold and potentially lay down early snow pack. I'm encouraged that the cold isn't forecast to lock up in Western Canada/PacNW at least in the 8-15 day rage. Models tend to overamp the SE ridge the same as they overamp big highs dropping down out of Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 27, 2017 Share Posted October 27, 2017 Average first freeze here is Oct.28th,seems to be close to right on que.If the clouds clear out sooner tomorrow night the chances are it will make it, possibly. "Ana" front coming through.The winds started to pick up along the boundary with the moisture lagging behind.I'm hoping we can get 1" of rain out of this anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted October 28, 2017 Share Posted October 28, 2017 Average first freeze here is Oct.28th,seems to be close to right on que.If the clouds clear out sooner tomorrow night the chances are it will make it, possibly. "Ana" front coming through.The winds started to pick up along the boundary with the moisture lagging behind.I'm hoping we can get 1" of rain out of this anyways.I think 1" is a safe bet across much of the eastern valley. Perhaps even 1.5" in your neck of the woods. Combined with totals from last week, I have zero concern for any fire ban evolving now. The pattern has definitely shifted from bone dry to marginal precipitation for the region since old Nate passed over. Thankful for the change. That whole 24 days without a trace was not fun at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 MJO is showing signs of breaking down into Nov by the Euro and GEFS going into the COD.Not sure whats going to happen with the ENSO but signs of a KW the 2nd wk of Nov .Coldest anamolies are still stuck in 1.2.Asia this afternoon by the Euro shows a trough going through S/Korea which should send some frontal system around the Valley around V-Day.Maybe we'l hear some thunderstorms coming up.we will be in our 2nd severe season during this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 A bit of a deviation from continuity(day 10+) for the 6z GFS and 0z Euro. Will be interesting to see if this is a blip or correction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 More interesting discussion in the Niña thread from the General Discussion forum, specifically about where the Niña is centered. Disregard the May reference as the thread has moved away from that months ago. Go to the last page. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 Looks like overall pattern is maintained...probably another cold front middle of next week. Before that next front, AN temps. Weeklies might be interesting tonight as the operational/control brought cold fronts out of the air mass in the northern Rockies. This pattern as it goes into winter might allow more cold SE as snow pack builds and cold fronts grow stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 North Pac looks like the warmer years. We can hope for severe weather I guess... OK seriously no change to my thinking. Warm primary pattern occasionally gives way to cold like right now. AN overall but colder than last year. More NWFS events for skiing please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted October 30, 2017 Author Share Posted October 30, 2017 Going to ride the roller coaster for the next couple of weeks by looking at the GFS. Wednesday Morning Friday Morning. Tuesday evening day 8 Friday evening day 11 Sunday evening day 13 Tuesday evening day 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Great post, John. The 6z GFS and 0z Euro OP point to a pattern w wild swings. The GEFS supports seasonal. The EPS mean is warm, but not a torch. The EPS control looks like the 6z GFS. Wild swings. Still a long ways out there. The Weeklies held serve. It was AN normal to varying degrees. Then, weeks 4-7 depicted again a pattern change or relaxation of sorts. It does not happen overnight. Beginning around the last week in November, there is quite a bit of blocking showing up. The ridges are in the right place for December to have some cold. Now, it is not calling for anything huge. But normal, after last winter, I will take. The snow mean for E TN ranges from 2-4" from say I40 NE including the Plateau. But there is still a 1-2" over much of the eastern half forum area beginning in a Nashville. The western half of the forum area is about an inch. None of that signals a great winter pattern...but the model is signaling there may be some chances later in its time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Euro weeklies are cooler than the CFS, especially weeks 4-6. No surprise I agree with the Euro but here is the reasoning. Pattern has already shown cooler interludes even with a warm background. Teleconnections continue to bounce around too. CFS goes 5 weeks straight warm? I also have some beach front property in Kansas, lol. Then of course regular readers know the Euro is my bestie. Breaking down the clusters weeks 4-6 shows typical uncertainty. I would expect a couple distinct cold fronts with a warm bounce in between. Clusters show more variable, which makes more sense than the week 4-6 charts verbatim. Starting to believe forecasting this winter will be almost as ugly as the Chiefs Broncos game. Glad KC won but it was Halloween scary, lol! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/WINTERPRELIM1718shortB.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 Great article, Jax. To add...the QBO for October was -16.79. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 Latest Euro weeklies have variability, esp if breaking down the clusters. Also I found more clarity in EIA weeks (Sat-Fri) vs Mon-Sun. Weeks 1-2 clusters are consistent as usual. Warm next week, colder week 2. Weeks 3-4 show slightly warmer than normal but clusters have wide swings. Expect variability. Weeks 5-6 clusters are all over the place. Overall shows a little more blocking. Odds favor at least variable, perhaps a real cold shot. Next several weeks still look mild dominated, but with openings for cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted November 3, 2017 Share Posted November 3, 2017 On 10/26/2017 at 7:13 PM, Carvers Gap said: One more thing to add...with the cold in Canada, when the cold decides to move south (or if bitter cold comes over the pole) it will race across Canada into the lower 48 w snow on the ground. Early indications would make me think that the cold will be more intense at it has less chance to modify. I think places like WI, MN, the MidWest, and the Great Lakes may seems some extremes. Will depend on the SER here as to duration and intensity for the forum area. Might be a good year to be in Memphis. They are long overdue. Yeah we are overdue hereon the west side of the state. Hopefully we can get some good accumulation at some point this winter!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted November 5, 2017 Share Posted November 5, 2017 On 11/2/2017 at 10:41 PM, jaxjagman said: https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/WINTERPRELIM1718shortB.pdf Thanks for sharing that Jax, I enjoyed reading through that! Has anyone been keeping up with the snowpack in Siberia? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 I will take the other side. Does he trade HDDs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 Man, the GFS is swinging wildly back and forth. Usually that is a sign to me that some cold air is about to roll into Canada. Check out 6z and then 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted November 6, 2017 Author Share Posted November 6, 2017 Should we start a winter thread or should I just modify the topic for this one and add winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastKnox Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: Should we start a winter thread or should I just modify the topic for this one and add winter? i like the idea of a separate thread - but I'm even more excited about the discussion no matter where it lands. Thanks to all of you! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 17 minutes ago, John1122 said: Should we start a winter thread or should I just modify the topic for this one and add winter? Tough call. With just three weeks until December, the models are giving hints now at the early December pattern. I think a separate thread is fine. Could put speculation and forecasts in the new thread for now...and then switch it right over to the main winter thread. Go for it. I think the banter thread is already rolling. The fall thread would cover the next three weeks. Then, we just pin the winter thread to the top. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 I will create a December/Winter Speculation thread. Maybe we can try three separate winter months???? If winter is no bueno...then we don't have to..... SCRATCH THE ABOVE.... AMZ8990, would you mind creating the Winter Speculation 17-18 / December Thread? You already have the banter thread. Time for a our folks out west to start a winter thread.....maybe it will bring all of us good fortune. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AMZ8990 Posted November 6, 2017 Share Posted November 6, 2017 11 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I will create a December/Winter Speculation thread. Maybe we can try three separate winter months???? If winter is no bueno...then we don't have to..... SCRATCH THE ABOVE.... AMZ8990, would you mind creating the Winter Speculation 17-18 / December Thread? You already have the banter thread. Time for a our folks out west to start a winter thread.....maybe it will bring all of us good fortune. I'll go ahead and change it over now Carver! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 Euro weeklies and CFS diverge about as sharply as possible, so December is still a coin flip and I will stay in this thread. Some Euro clusters echo mild CFS but of course other Euro clusters are even colder than the overall. I will believe sustained blocking when I see it. Until then, I like quick cold fronts. The blocking on the coldest solutions shows up all over the Arctic, while other solutions have the North American block fail. November to December has a decent correlation, regardless of October, so watching the month progress will roll back some layers. For November I lean slight AN with brief but sharp cold fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted November 7, 2017 Share Posted November 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: Euro weeklies and CFS diverge about as sharply as possible, so December is still a coin flip and I will stay in this thread. Some Euro clusters echo mild CFS but of course other Euro clusters are even colder than the overall. I will believe sustained blocking when I see it. Until then, I like quick cold fronts. The blocking on the coldest solutions shows up all over the Arctic, while other solutions have the North American block fail. November to December has a decent correlation, regardless of October, so watching the month progress will roll back some layers. For November I lean slight AN with brief but sharp cold fronts. Crazy how cold the Weeklies are...I was really surprised. Jeff, the CFS that I have access to updates like four times per day. Is there a weekly update? The ones I can see jump all over the place. I will trust the Weeklies when I see more than one of those runs. They have been trending cooler, but that was a deviation from the norm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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