Carvers Gap Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 12z Euro brings Irma into E TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 GFS has a strong intensity bias for tropical systems after the most recent 'upgrade.' Model is still a waste of money, and we should concentrate on our high-resolution wheel-house. After 7 days, outsource everything to the ECMWF. Appears the big East trough will not pick up Irma in time. Frankly the US Mainland can selfishly hope the Greater Antilles disrupt the hurricane; but then, one is wishing disaster on Developing countries. Afraid no good options exist. Same story in the Pacific, and I'm not talking tropics.. So, now looks like a weak trough in the Tennessee Valley could steer Irma. That sure ain't good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 4, 2017 Share Posted September 4, 2017 5 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: GFS has a strong intensity bias for tropical systems after the most recent 'upgrade.' Model is still a waste of money, and we should concentrate on our high-resolution wheel-house. After 7 days, outsource everything to the ECMWF. Appears the big East trough will not pick up Irma in time. Frankly the US Mainland can selfishly hope the Greater Antilles disrupt the hurricane; but then, one is wishing disaster on Developing countries. Afraid no good options exist. Same story in the Pacific, and I'm not talking tropics.. So, now looks like a weak trough in the Tennessee Valley could steer Irma. That sure ain't good! Been waiting on that post all day. Thanks, Jeff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 4, 2017 Author Share Posted September 4, 2017 The GFS is probably wonky in it's strength, it has 156 knot winds at 700mb in it's NE eye quadrant as it approaches Miami. That would translate to 150-160mph winds or so. But the Euro is also very potent with a low 930s storm, still a strong Cat 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 As a fan of southwest FL, I do not like the look of this morning's Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 180mph now,tied for top 5 and 10mph from Allen in 1980 which is #1 Atlantic storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 5, 2017 Author Share Posted September 5, 2017 Very rowdy storm this morning. Extreme lightning/thunder going down. Blindingly heavy rain as well. Models vary but we could still see some powerful winds from Irma, heavy rains as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 5, 2017 Share Posted September 5, 2017 Irma 185 mph. Stronger than most Pacific Super Typhoons. Euro, Canadian, and Ukie all take it over Cuba. Such a track would drop it off to Cat 2 or lower. That's great for the USA but not so for Cuba. GFS still wants to thread that Florida Straight needle. I remain skeptical until it gets inside 48-72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Several models continue to stubbornly depict Irma moving into the eastern forum area at the very least. Would potentially hammer the eastern slopes and peaks of the Apps w strong winds and rain. While the eastern Valley would possibly be spared severe wx, let us not forget how Hugo arrived many years ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 What is MRX looking at when they create this afternoon disco? Things could change, but most major models and ensembles show a potential major landfall in this bolded area...not just moving along it. Also, plenty of model support for significant impacts in this forum area. No slam dunk, but their previous other discos freely mention the possibility. I understand being conservative and that they have a few days of wiggle room...but those comments seem opaque at best. Maybe they will be correct...but seems like they are depending on being more lucky than good and hedging that current modeling is wrong. The afternoon Euro brought high winds and rain into NE TN along w the GFS. I guess they are just waiting a day, but seems a bit too ho-hum given the possible realistic solutions out there and potential impacts to the region. 000 FXUS64 KMRX 061908 AFDMRX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Morristown TN 308 PM EDT Wed Sep 6 2017 LONG TERM (Thursday night through Wednesday)... Unseasonably amplified upper level trough very slowly weakens across the Northeastern U.S into Monday. This will be a period of most pleasant weather across the forecast area with dry advection at all levels as an expansive area of high pressure fills in across a large chunk of the eastern states. The dry regime will allow for sunshine filled days and pleasant highs in the 70s. At this time, the hurricane is expected to lift slowly north along the carolina coast Tuesday and Wednesday. The superblend goes wild again with much higher pops but tried to pull back on this concept if the track is to be believed, any deep moisture advection into the region is quite a bit too fast. And, the location of the low pressure center with a deep easterly flow around the weakening tropical system would lead to a fair amount of downsloping across the Appalachian crest and thus, lower chances for showers; except for this higher terrain feature. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Chattanooga Airport, TN 53 75 54 78 / 0 0 0 0 Knoxville McGhee Tyson Airport, TN 51 72 51 76 / 0 0 0 0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 6, 2017 Share Posted September 6, 2017 Time sensitive. Does this look like meshes w the MRX disco? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 0z Euro and 6z GFS continue to place Irma over portions of the mid and eastern forum areas by early next week. High winds in the mountains and significant rains west of the Apps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Much improved disco by MRX. The 6z GFS returned to its earlier solutions and moved back towards the 0z Euro as noted in my earlier post... .LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday night)...High pressure will develop and settle over the MS Valley...turning winds over the area to out of the north and north east. Skies will remain clear with temperatures slowly increasing with warmer and more moist air slowly advecting into the region through the weekend. Hurricane Irma is expected to move north along the FL coast and make landfall somewhere between northern FL and the Carolinas. Models are diverging on the path of Irma...with GFS now wanting to keep Irma moving north and well east of the Southern Appalachians. With model uncertainty continually showing...will offer low confidence for now on amount of rain and wind...as well as coverage...that will impact the area. Have left the forecast more pessimistic...with Irma moving almost directly over the area. With this forecast...winds will begin to increase ahead of this system beginning Monday morning...with the greatest chance for strong wind gusts in the higher elevations in east TN and areas north of I40. The rain is expected to arrive late Monday afternoon into the early evening. The highest accumulation values are again expected in the higher elevations of east TN and areas north of I40. Depending on the path of Irma...the flow wrapping around the system will be the greatest contributer to what areas receive the greatest wind speeds/rain accumulation. PW values are at or above the 90th percentile for this time of year...so can expect a couple of inches of rain accumulation. Areas that receive several bands of rain could experience localized flooding. Irma is expected to continue to weaken as it moves north...and cause wind and rainfall chances to decrease from south to north beginning late Wednesday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 New NHC cone has Irma heading straight for W NC and NE TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 GFS has a high intensity bias. See what the Euro does. Rest of my thoughts, perhaps for the duration, will be in Banter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Wow @ the 12z Euro. Almost the entire forum area is brought into play as Irma(and remnants) move to the northern border of GA/AL by 120. Miami...whew. Hope for FL's sake this run does not verify.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 With the tracks presented by the models this afternoon, barring any rapid acceleration out of here, you can about guarantee flooding in much of the area. The "up to 2" being touted by some will be more like a trace in comparison to what most of the area would receive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 The Euro sees 60+mph wind gusts over the valley areas with higher in the mountains. Would be a significant impact. Keeps the system over the mid-valley area until it dies out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 7, 2017 Author Share Posted September 7, 2017 Updated track sees a tropical storm sitting over Knoxville Tuesday. Especially North and East of that would be getting significant rains and very gusty winds. How slow/fast she moves or dies out after that will have major impacts on things like flooding and tree damage. Ivan caused some pretty major flooding tracking from SW to NE across the Smokies. Had a major road loss here due to mudslides from it. May be a lot more downsloping in the eastern valley with this track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 7, 2017 Share Posted September 7, 2017 Crazy run of the 12z Euro. Maybe the storm won't be legendary up here(maybe it will), but that run sure will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted September 8, 2017 Author Share Posted September 8, 2017 Euro wind gusts early Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 For posterity. Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for portions of the forum area. TS Watches stretch into southern-middle TN and northern Alabama. TS Warnings for north-central Alabama. Crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Will be interesting to see if these winds verify....(these are gusts, not the mean, which are modeled) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Here is the precip map. Some decent rains from the remnants of Irma for the southern reaches of our forum area...northern MS, northern AL, and southern TN. Folks in western NC, nothwest SC, and north Georgia(parts of SE forum) may get hammered pretty good by winds and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Tropical storm watches in our area; there's something you don't see every day! Monday night is going to be interesting around here. Nashville and Huntsville are more aggressive than Morristown on winds. I am hoping MRX is right. You see, MRX is in the stock the liquor cabinet zone. The others are in the stock non-perishable food zone. Euro mean surface winds are a lot less than that peak chart. I will go closer to the mean which matches the NAM and other hi-res. Split the difference among the WFOs. Higher elevations, including the Plateau, might get raked though. Frankly I'm not really interested until it boomerangs back as a mid-latitude low. Give me a chance of storm chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Indeed, as noted on the Euro screenshot stamp it is wind gusts. I did add an edited note for newer folks to the site. MRX has finally dialed-in IMO...they look about right from what I can see. (Better than the previous move along the Carolina coast comments) The forecast for Chatt(KCHA) is pretty stout. Sustained 25-30 mph w gusts to 45 mph on Monday night. Again, it will be interesting to see if winds make it that far inland. Opal and Hugo did substantial damage at elevation in E TN. Irma's remanants look a bit west compared to those historic storms. If winds get breezy, hopefully folks will stop by and report it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 The main Tropical thread has several folks mentioning that the 0z Euro missed on today's landfall and overall track as it was too far west...and maybe the GFS did a bit better. Though to be sure the trajectory of the storm makes it difficult to nail in relation to the coast. Still, the Euro did better IMO over the long haul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 Preliminary closures for GSMNP in preparation for any wind damage. https://www.nps.gov/grsm/planyourvisit/temproadclose.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 Absolutely right! Most of the tropical models made similar short-term errors. Who is going to trust the GFS over the Euro/Tropicals? Euro saved lives in Southwest Florida with the right mid-term forecast. When the chips are down, it's about saving lives. Euro reigns undisputed champion! 14 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: The main Tropical thread has several folks mentioning that the 0z Euro missed on today's landfall and overall track as it was too far west...and maybe the GFS did a bit better. Though to be sure the trajectory of the storm makes it difficult to nail in relation to the coast. Still, the Euro did better IMO over the long haul. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted September 11, 2017 Share Posted September 11, 2017 TS Irma's outstretched northern precip shield is already knocking on the door of SWVA and NETN. I am curious to see if the rain will remain continuous or break into showers past the blue ridge. So far that doesn't seem to be happening in SETN. Areas further south in the forum area may be in for some local flooding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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