Morris Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 0.25" in the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Based on radar, there is actually a decent batch headed for the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Morris said: Based on radar, there is actually a decent batch headed for the city. if that can get in there before the surface low gets cranking later today...once the low develops, I would think the northern extent of the shield erodes/getting pulled in towards the low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Heavy rain here now under those yellow echoes. Let's see how far north this gets. I don't see the stuff near Lancaster making it up this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Ignore the latest HRRR, it's completely out to lunch with a massive dry slot developing. You can clearly see that dry slot will be headed more towards Upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Torrential rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 1 minute ago, RedSky said: Torrential rain The heaviest rain that's a threat to our region seems to be moving right along or just South of I-78 in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Park already higher then the NAM and GFS. NEVER Discount a Euro/Rgem (and Gem-Lam) consensus. Let it all play out before calling it a bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 28 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: if that can get in there before the surface low gets cranking later today...once the low develops, I would think the northern extent of the shield erodes/getting pulled in towards the low. Exactly, let's see what happens with LI, CT rain shield as well. i would want to be in central jersey on south and then again out on the NE islands to get into the main low produced rains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 If this were winter, it would be one of those events where we'd expect 1-2 feet only to have the south trend show up, cause mass toaster baths ... then we'd get a surprise band on the northern fringe that would give us 5-9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, danstorm said: If this were winter, it would be one of those events where we'd expect 1-2 feet only to have the south trend show up, cause mass toaster baths ... then we'd get a surprise band on the northern fringe that would give us 5-9". Nope. We still have the Rgem, Gem-Lam and Euro showing wet solutions for NYC metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Just like in my winters it had begun ripping, radar looked great and fifteen minutes later it sputtered out to lighter rain and the back edge all of a sudden is speeding NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 the low went from NE PA to offshore SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 12z Euro is now nearly identical to the 12z Rgem. About 1" into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 19 minutes ago, RedSky said: Just like in my winters it had begun ripping, radar looked great and fifteen minutes later it sputtered out to lighter rain and the back edge all of a sudden is speeding NE Not sure what you're looking at but the radar looks the same as it has for the last few hours, especially for your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, ag3 said: 12z Euro is now nearly identical to the 12z Rgem. About 1" into NYC. The Euro looks overdone IMO, especially North of Rt 78. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 7, 2017 Author Share Posted August 7, 2017 Another SNJ jackpot near 5" in just the last week or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The Euro looks overdone IMO, especially North of Rt 78. 12z Ukmet also with 1" line into NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 1 minute ago, ag3 said: 12z Ukmet also with 1" line into NYC. It's way drier than the Euro and the metrogram is under 25mm so no cigar on an inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 23 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Not sure what you're looking at but the radar looks the same as it has for the last few hours, especially for your area. Back edge is approaching Montgomery County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Ripping here at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 1 minute ago, RedSky said: Back edge is approaching Montgomery County It should pivot some before moving out tonight but the main show should be done by 5PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Up to 0.27" on the day. If you manage to get into one of the heavier bands you could easily exceed an inch, but I think 1"+ widespread like the Euro was showing is a bit much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 .15 here. Going to have to dump for the Euro to verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 It's a 5-9" winter event, folks... more to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Up to 0.47" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Up to 0.38" however the back edge should move through before 5PM. Will probably crack a half inch but that will just about do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 12 minutes ago, danstorm said: It's a 5-9" winter event, folks... more to the south. That happened in December of 2009 with the first blizzard (and eventually others) that hit S NJ, picked up about 10" here but amounts greatly increased from the Monmouth/Mercer County line on south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 It's pretty shameful when a red tagger is comparing a Summer rainstorm with a deep tropical connection to a Winter storm. In all reality, you would have seen a much sharper cutoff with mostly virga NW of the city due to much lower moisture content during Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Just now, NJwx85 said: It's pretty shameful when a red tagger is comparing a Summer rainstorm with a deep tropical connection to a Winter storm. In all reality, you would have seen a much sharper cutoff with mostly virga NW of the city due to much lower moisture content. Oh, the horror! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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