bluewave Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Just to our south... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Let's get er done! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 I believe the main threat today is well South and West of the region but we'll have to see if the short term guidance bumps further North over the next few hours. Current radar trends would certainly support a Mid-Atlantic jackpot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: I believe the main threat today is well South and West of the region but we'll have to see if the short term guidance bumps further North over the next few hours. Current radar trends would certainly support a Mid-Atlantic jackpot. I'd agree. You can see on the HRRR that the low is well south down by ACY...assuming that verifies this would be a run of the mill shower event for most on this forum. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 0.11" in the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Shift South on the 12z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 big hit ACY to eastern LI. Need a bust about 50 miles north or most of us see very little rain today/tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 So I should expect my flight to be delayed then correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, dmillz25 said: So I should expect my flight to be delayed then correct? certainly possible, although latest model trends are to shift this south some, so the heaviest misses the NYC airports. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 15 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Shift South on the 12z NAM Winter 09-10 all over again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 What else is new...another NYC fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 3K nam also has very little for us...subsidence north of the low track.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 boring trend wins again. remember when the euro showed a low in ne pa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 7, 2017 Author Share Posted August 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, forkyfork said: boring trend wins again. remember when the euro showed a low in ne pa? Not enough WAR this summer so the trend is south instead of north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 You can see the SLP on KLWX rotating NW of Richmond, VA. The latest HRRR has the batch of heaviest rain which is currently moving through Northern VA moving on more of a Northeasterly trajectory as the afternoon progresses so I wouldn't completely rule out a period of heavy rain for areas on the Southern edge of the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 1 hour ago, NortheastPAWx said: What else is new...another NYC fail. At least we're getting rain this summer, last few summers have been mostly hot & dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Clear miss, not even all that close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 57 minutes ago, forkyfork said: boring trend wins again. remember when the euro showed a low in ne pa? Today's 12z Rgem and 6z Hi-res Gem Lam both continue to be pretty bullish. Along with the 0z Euro. I wouldn't completely write this off yet, based on the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 11 minutes ago, danstorm said: Clear miss, not even all that close. For NYC proper I would agree, but northern portions of Central NJ and the extreme South shore of LI are in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 1 minute ago, ag3 said: Today's 12z Rgem and 6z Hi-res Gem Lan both continue to be pretty bullish. Along with the 0z Euro. I wouldn't completely write this off yet, based on the NAM. The RGEM is relying on more convection developing over Eastern PA and moving through. I wouldn't call that a lock given how stable we are even aloft. The 12z GFS also is fairly dry. You can clearly see that the heaviest convection is closer to the developing surface low in VA and as that SLP matures it should consolidate the rain shield some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 KOKX agrees and has dropped the flash flood watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 the developing low will pull in the rain closer to the center. Expect the northern edge of the shield to erode later today. Euro has been too far north all summer.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: the developing low will pull in the rain closer to the center. Expect the northern edge of the shield to erode later today. Euro has been too far north all summer.... That heavier area of rain SW of Lancaster could give us a good soaking if it holds together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 14 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: KOKX agrees and has dropped the flash flood watch. The writing was on the wall. Just realized there was a thread for this. It's all about the low placement too far south. With the cool stable air in place just some light strataform rain seems likely. .25" average for most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The writing was on the wall. Just realized there was a thread for this. It's all about the low placement to far south. With the cool stable air in place just some light strataform rain seems likely. .25" average for most upton must have bought into the 0z Euro...they were calling for a total of 2.50 inches even up this way as late as this morning. Not a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 19 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: KOKX agrees and has dropped the flash flood watch. I still see it up... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 this is going to be a pretty bad forecast for 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 8 minutes ago, Morris said: I still see it up... You're right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 It is raining very hard and 63.9F. Radar blossoming here as it moves ENE. .70" most of that the last half hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Already exceeded what the HRRR had for the entire day with what looks like hours and hours of a rain train to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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