Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 SPC's new D2 introduces a slight risk centered on the Chicago area, with isolated tornadoes among the threats:http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html ...Northern IL, southern WI and vicinity... MUCAPE on the order of 1500 J/kg is forecast to develop across the warm sector aided by cool temperatures aloft. Capping will be minimal, and indeed early storms are expected across MN and northern IA near the developing low. These may not be severe initially, but a gradual increase in coverage and intensity is anticipated throughout the day. In addition, a smattering of early activity is possible ahead of the low where warm advection will exist, and this could possibly modify low-level shear for late day storms across northern IL and southern WI. Wind profiles will be on the increase and by late in the day, hodographs appear supportive of supercells. Although low-level shear will not be particularly strong, storms co-located with the low and/or near any preexisting outflows may be capable of brief tornadoes. Relatively cool 700 mb temperatures will result in favorable 0-3km CAPE values supporting low-level accelerations. Large hail and localized wind damage are also possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted August 2, 2017 Author Share Posted August 2, 2017 D3 Slight for Friday includes eastern parts of this subforum (E OH/PA/NY): http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html And today's D4-8 is hinting at a possible heavy rain threat for parts of this sub on Sunday-Monday:http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Wed Aug 02 2017 Valid 051200Z - 101200Z ...DISCUSSION... A shortwave trough will become negatively tilted as it moves across New England on Sat/D4, with a cold front near the Hudson river by 18Z. This solution has slowed down compared to previous model runs, suggesting more potential over northern New England on D4. However, instability is in question given the likelihood of previous days convection, and for that reason predictability is too low. For Sun/D5, a secondary, low-amplitude shortwave trough will affect the central parts of the country, translating eastward across the mid MS and OH valleys on Mon/D6. However, upper flow will be nearly parallel to a front, with mainly a heavy rain threat. ..Jewell.. 08/02/2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted August 2, 2017 Author Share Posted August 2, 2017 WPC also includes their "slight risk" of excessive rainfall for most of MN tonight, and a "marginal" for WI tomorrow (unfortunately including areas recently hit hard by flooding): http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=1 http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/ero.php?opt=curr&day=2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 Through the 8th?Sweeping system will make this 2 days and done (Thur/Fri). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted August 2, 2017 Share Posted August 2, 2017 Does this really need its own topic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 New day 1 has 5% tornado probs in southern WI, and also clipping very small parts of MN/IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 Getting some sunshine ahead of these discrete cells pushing into SW WI. Strangely, SPC was downplaying the deep-layer shear in their outlook, saying it was only around 20kt. However MKX says 30-40kt in their afternoon AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 At the moment, the discrete cells look to be weakening (before they were even severe to begin with). Don't think much will come of this unless that reverses soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geoboy645 Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 I think the cold front undercut the storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted August 3, 2017 Share Posted August 3, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Posted from NWS APX Facebook, picture near Torch Lake/ Elk Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Nothing exciting here tonight. I did catch a pretty nice shelf cloud on a previously tornado warned cell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Had two decent storms when I was out and about today...The first storm produced decent, but sub-severe winds. 6" diameter tree was snapped at the base in the parking lot I was in. Second storm produced some pea size hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 4, 2017 Share Posted August 4, 2017 Danced around here at work, home got hit again though. Grass going to green right back up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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