Vice-Regent Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 Just now, dtk said: It was never any good... I think that July 19th upgrade crashed it to a whole new level. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 Just now, Vice-Regent said: I think that July 19th upgrade crashed it to a whole new level. Yeah, they definitely upgraded it without looking at any objective, quantitative verification. It's crazy!! Just buy the euro already.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 Currently slated to be in Myrtle Beach from Fri evening until Tuesday morning (and driving into the eclipse core on Monday). I'm super disappointed by the guidance recently - lots of clouds shown and also some precip making for some potentially not so great beach weather. Maybe I should punt for 2024 and just watch from the DC area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted August 16, 2017 Share Posted August 16, 2017 On 8/15/2017 at 10:42 AM, H2O said: nut job alert Did you look at the location? We once had a wild and crazy guy who posted here who was from that location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 11 hours ago, Kmlwx said: Currently slated to be in Myrtle Beach from Fri evening until Tuesday morning (and driving into the eclipse core on Monday). I'm super disappointed by the guidance recently - lots of clouds shown and also some precip making for some potentially not so great beach weather. Maybe I should punt for 2024 and just watch from the DC area... Today's GFS progs look good. I'll (most likely) be in western SC. Haven't seen a Euro cloud map for today's 12z run, but Euro has been rock steady having a surface high and upper level ridge axis parked over western SC. Can't complain about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 Interesting weather happening today in Minnesota. Many rotating storms (and couple videos of tors) coming out of a wall of rain. Apparently a PDS or two as well. Seems to be fairly unexpected. 6+ warnings and a surprise tor watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 36 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Today's GFS progs look good. I'll (most likely) be in western SC. Haven't seen a Euro cloud map for today's 12z run, but Euro has been rock steady having a surface high and upper level ridge axis parked over western SC. Can't complain about that. Awesome. I'll be in the vicinity of Laurens myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 22 hours ago, dtk said: Yeah, they definitely upgraded it without looking at any objective, quantitative verification. It's crazy!! Just buy the euro already.... The implications of what you said here are frightening! (especially your prior post!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 1 minute ago, BTRWx said: What? I am guessing its because it was issued by NWS LA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 36 minutes ago, Sparky said: Awesome. I'll be in the vicinity of Laurens myself. Nice. Our hotel is in Greenville and I think we might drive to Easley to watch the show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Today's GFS progs look good. I'll (most likely) be in western SC. Haven't seen a Euro cloud map for today's 12z run, but Euro has been rock steady having a surface high and upper level ridge axis parked over western SC. Can't complain about that. 18z GFS average cloud cover map is crystal clear which is a break from prior runs. Drive down looks rough though (Fri PM) - could be in storms a decent way down 95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 2 hours ago, BTRWx said: The implications of what you said here are frightening! (especially your prior post!) I should be more careful and use emojis when I am trying to be sarcastic. Putting aside my personal thoughts on the 'upgrade', much of which involved technical and not scientific changes, it was vetted with over three years of simulations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 20 minutes ago, dtk said: I should be more careful and use emojis when I am trying to be sarcastic. Putting aside my person thoughts on the 'upgrade', much of which involved technical and not scientific changes, it was vetted with over three years of simulations. May I ask why then the NHC didn't like it at all? At least, thats what was said in the SNE thread by the mets about the upgrade: On 8/4/2017 at 0:19 PM, CoastalWx said: I would advise big caution with the GFS. The GFS has been generating just absurd amounts of PWATs that may be causing it to go James from latent heat due to convection. The NHC was actually against the GFS upgrade because of this from what I gather. It sounds like a really bad issue. On 8/4/2017 at 2:32 PM, OceanStWx said: They called it "unacceptable" when recommendations were opened up to the various branches of the NWS. Sadly, the biggest loss of skill was in the short to medium range track/intensity errors in the Atlantic Basin. And not like small degradation, but like 10% loss of skill. On 8/4/2017 at 3:46 PM, CoastalWx said: For them to say that is eye opening. BTW, the "go James" is a SNE thing and not related to the NHC/GFS disco Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 11 hours ago, yoda said: May I ask why then the NHC didn't like it at all? At least, thats what was said in the SNE thread by the mets about the upgrade: NHC objected to the implementation because it resulted in a degradation in track forecasts based on the retrospective testing performed. The degradation isn't huge, but was probably statistically significant for some basins and some lead times. Not huge, but obviously not ideal. For what it's worth, there were additional changes made beyond what was in the retrospective tests that targeted TCs, including a modification to the relocation/initialization scheme and the assimilation of global hawk dropsondes (when available). Based on objective metrics and subjective evaluation from all other national centers and NWS regions, it was decided to go forward with the implementation. If you want to parse through all of the evaluation, start going through these: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/noor/GFS2017/GFS2017.htm. This was not a "huge upgrade", but instead a significant modification to some of the software infrastructure wrapped around the model as well as some small items to target very specific issues. On the TC issue, the new model is actually an improvement over the old when it comes to forecasting genesis, though the bar there is pretty low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 13 hours ago, BTRWx said: The implications of what you said here are frightening! (especially your prior post!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 Rather have a model that doesn't fart out fantasy TCs all over the place(eyes on you CMC). I'm sure they aren't done tweaking the GFS now and in the future so hope it ends up being best model NA soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 I've been skimming through long-term teleconnection patterns and analogs and just don't see anything that sticks out. Nearly every long-term signal is near neutral right now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 19 minutes ago, BTRWx said: I've been skimming through long-term teleconnection patterns and analogs and just don't see anything that sticks out. Nearly every long-term signal is near neutral right now! One small pattern I noticed is trends in the qbo. I have no idea if this has any implications for us in the longer range, but take a good look at what years trend the qbo consistently positive through summer at 50mb. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u50.index from positive anomalies that transition to negative during the heart of the summer. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data eta: Sorry, I'm skimming through multiple data sets. What's the non-50mb data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dtk Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 28 minutes ago, BTRWx said: One small pattern I noticed is trends in the qbo. I have no idea if this has any implications for us in the longer range, but take a good look at what years trend the qbo consistently positive through summer at 50mb. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/qbo.u50.index from positive anomalies that transition to negative during the heart of the summer. https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/correlation/qbo.data eta: Sorry, I'm skimming through multiple data sets. What's the non-50mb data? You mean your second link from ESRL? It's 30mb equatorial zonal wind..check bottom of data table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 17, 2017 Share Posted August 17, 2017 1 minute ago, dtk said: You mean your second link from ESRL? It's 30mb equatorial zonal wind..check bottom of data table. Thanks. The differences between the two data-sets are surprising to me. I honestly don't understand how the qbo works. Do you have any resources to share? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 Welp - starting our drive down to Myrtle Beach at around 3pm this afternoon. Expecting atrocious traffic from DC to around Fredericksburg. Hopefully we can avoid anything horrible, though. Looks stormy unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 12 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Welp - starting our drive down to Myrtle Beach at around 3pm this afternoon. Expecting atrocious traffic from DC to around Fredericksburg. Hopefully we can avoid anything horrible, though. Looks stormy unfortunately. Starting your trip on a Friday? At 3:00 PM rush hour? Around DC? Last time I tried that while going to Richmond I spent 5 hours from the north side to the south side. I hope you have much better luck then I had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 17 minutes ago, Kmlwx said: Welp - starting our drive down to Myrtle Beach at around 3pm this afternoon. Expecting atrocious traffic from DC to around Myrtle Beach Fredericksburg. Hopefully we can avoid anything horrible, though. Looks stormy unfortunately. FTFY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 2 hours ago, MN Transplant said: FTFY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 Just got a newsletter from my daughter's preschool. Due to the eclipse, they are keeping all of the kids inside on Monday from 1-4:30pm and will be closing the blinds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 19 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: Just got a newsletter from my daughter's preschool. Due to the eclipse, they are keeping all of the kids inside on Monday from 1-4:30pm and will be closing the blinds. It might be more dangerous for her to go in that day. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 We are still on our road trip from LA and made a stop last night in Gold Beach, OR, before meeting friends tonight in Lincoln City for the weekend and the eclipse. We had cell service overnight and I was glad to get caught up on everyone else's plans for Monday's show. Wishing everyone clear skies and good beer! That reminds me, Mattie G and Cape need to make a trip to Russian River Brewing! There are a ton of breweries out here but that was a really good one. Still have a couple of Pliny the Elder to work on. Last night's sunset from Gold Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 4 hours ago, MN Transplant said: Just got a newsletter from my daughter's preschool. Due to the eclipse, they are keeping all of the kids inside on Monday from 1-4:30pm and will be closing the blinds. Oh FFS. People need to show this to kids!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RickinBaltimore Posted August 18, 2017 Share Posted August 18, 2017 4 hours ago, MN Transplant said: Just got a newsletter from my daughter's preschool. Due to the eclipse, they are keeping all of the kids inside on Monday from 1-4:30pm and will be closing the blinds. Speechless...meanwhile I'm planning on making a pinhole camera for the boys over the weekend for them to use Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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