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August OBS/DISCO

Round Hill WX

By Round Hill WX,
in Mid Atlantic

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Why the eye roll? There were a couple model runs that looked impressive-ish. It looks like a mainly SEVA svr kind of situation now. 

Cause he complains so much... he even is complaining about the eclipse

And i guess you feel like we should toss the LWX AFD which mentions a severe threat for tomorrow?

ETA:  Better check those afternoon 00z NAM soundings

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

Tomorrow looks to be FUN!

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=LWX&issuedby=LWX&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off 

.NEAR TERM /TONIGHT/...

Flash Flood Watch in effect for Washington DC/Baltimore MD
metros and southern Maryland from noon to 10 PM Monday. Multiple
rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms are expected.
Localized hourly rainfall rates of 1 to 2 inches per hour are
possible. Average total rainfall should be between 1 to 1.5
inches with localized amounts of 3 to 4 inches where heavier
thunderstorms develop/possibly train over the same areas.

Rainfall intensity currently peaking near PAH along a
stationary boundary running from AR to NC. PWATs increase above
1.5 inches tonight with the warm front, so rain showers by late
tonight could reach moderate intensity.

Min temps under thickening clouds and southerly flow generally
upper 60s inland to around 70F for urban centers.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...

Warm front stalls over the area (stretching southwest to
northeast across central portions of the CWA) through Monday. An
approaching upper level trough over the Great Lakes will allow
surface low development along the front through the day. The low
moves east from the area Monday evening. PWATs increase above
2.1 inches through Monday morning per 12Z NAM/GFS bufr soundings
at DCA. This is near the average daily max, above the 99
percentile for this time of year. Moisture this great,
convergence along the front/ahead of the low, and reduced flash
flood guidance in the Balt/Wash urban centers warrants the
flash flood watch. Around an inch QPF is expected across the
area, slightly less NW (on the cold side of the front) and more
east (ahead of the low).

Strong wind shear/helicity is expected ahead of the low Monday
afternoon. Limited heating/highs in the upper 70s will limit
instability. Therefore the primary severe threat looks to be
damaging winds. Isolated weak tornadoes are also possible given
the looping hodographs seen in NHK bufr soundings from 12Z
NAM/GFS.

 

This makes me far happier, than winning 1.9 billion dollars on the PowerBall. There could be some flooding. There is nothing better, than a good flood!!! Lawns are growing, I am already scrambling to mow ours and here comes MORE RAIN!!!!

Don't look now but we might get annihilated again by rain on Thursday/Friday. I am praying HARD for severe floods!

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Jebman

Jebman

Posted
Posted

When the NWS starts trotting out the right front entrance region of the jet streak phrase, you KNOW this is going to be an excellent rain event.

In any event, the precip elements over Dale City continue to blossom.

I am so frackin' elated, I am not going to be able to sleep for the next 36 hours.

 

Though I must say, southeastern Pennsylvania is hogging most of the rain, I will probably get a quarter of an inch and southeast Penn will end up with over a foot of fresh rain by tonight. It's been pouring there, just pouring and pouring and pouring. Its almost as tho there is a developing low there, with a deform zone. Figures. But, we are supposed to get bypassed by storms in January, not August. I guess the weather goddesses are practicing in August lmao.

Pennsylvania is an EPIC RAIN HOG. Always has been, and always will be. then we are expected to feel sorry for em when they flood. All I can say for you, southeast Pennsylvania, I hope you know how to breathe water. Go ahead. Hog all of my rain. Its supposed to be SOUTH of you, has convective storms then YOU get robbed of the rain. Blub blub blub to you all in SE Penn. Don't turn around. Drive right thru those flooded low water crossings. You'll make it. lmao

I'm confident we will get our rain ------ In January, February and March, while just to the north, feet of snow will accumulate. We are going to get so damned much rain in the cold months, that even I am going to be SICK of it. I cant imagine how I ever thought we'd get a lot of rain from this system today. Of course Pennsylvania will get all of it. Let's see, how many more months til November when we finally start to get rained to death in Dale City?

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yoda

yoda

Posted
Posted

Updated morning AFD from LWX re CAPE

Quote 

The extent of uncertainty is best displayed by GEFS CAPE
plumes, which range from 200 J/kg to over 1600 J/kg later this
afternoon at IAD. Modified LWX RAOB based on breaks and
temp/dewpoint spread of 77/70. This does yield 1100 J/kg SBCAPE.
At this time, the best chance of any severe weather will be
across southern MD.
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RedSky

RedSky

Posted
Posted
7 hours ago, Jebman said:

When the NWS starts trotting out the right front entrance region of the jet streak phrase, you KNOW this is going to be an excellent rain event.

In any event, the precip elements over Dale City continue to blossom.

I am so frackin' elated, I am not going to be able to sleep for the next 36 hours.

 

Though I must say, southeastern Pennsylvania is hogging most of the rain, I will probably get a quarter of an inch and southeast Penn will end up with over a foot of fresh rain by tonight. It's been pouring there, just pouring and pouring and pouring. Its almost as tho there is a developing low there, with a deform zone. Figures. But, we are supposed to get bypassed by storms in January, not August. I guess the weather goddesses are practicing in August lmao.

Pennsylvania is an EPIC RAIN HOG. Always has been, and always will be. then we are expected to feel sorry for em when they flood. All I can say for you, southeast Pennsylvania, I hope you know how to breathe water. Go ahead. Hog all of my rain. Its supposed to be SOUTH of you, has convective storms then YOU get robbed of the rain. Blub blub blub to you all in SE Penn. Don't turn around. Drive right thru those flooded low water crossings. You'll make it. lmao

I'm confident we will get our rain ------ In January, February and March, while just to the north, feet of snow will accumulate. We are going to get so damned much rain in the cold months, that even I am going to be SICK of it. I cant imagine how I ever thought we'd get a lot of rain from this system today. Of course Pennsylvania will get all of it. Let's see, how many more months til November when we finally start to get rained to death in Dale City?

Have some serious rain underway here Jeb, after today well over 10" the last month and I have been in a "dry" zone compared to much of the area north and south of here lol. Most likely won't be enough life jackets in the state for our water logged residents I am suggesting people grab hold of the numerous pumpkins that have begun to float out of the flooded farm pastures that now are becoming lakes like north Minnesota.

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