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August OBS/DISCO


Round Hill WX

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17 hours ago, mitchnick said:

This is about the 5th time this year my street became a raging river. Please make it stop someone! And it looks like another round is headed for me again. Ughhh

You want it to stop, move to Dale City. Tonight's rain will largely miss Woodbridge, smash south MD. Models show this. Fun starts next week.

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1 hour ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Came home today to 3.08" in the rain gauge since August 9, and it's pouring again tonight. Cutting the grass tomorrow is going to be fun!

Once again, Maryland is THE place to be!

Rich tropical air is in place.

STRONG COLD FRONT RAMS INTO THE TROPICAL AIR.

Over Dale City. air parcels dont rise.

There are no storms.

There are no CLOUDS to speak of.

Klingon Anti Rain Shield is in play and has been switched ON.

 

When there is no front, we do get rain.

But bring on an organized front with forcing, even the possibility of severe, and Dale City STRIKES OUT!

We'll get the cool air, but with no rain and hardly any clouds.

Only in Dale City.

Maryland is THE PLACE to Be. Virginia AINT.

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Radar shows all the forcing well to the east. This strong cold front punching into a deep tropical airmass is far drier than a popcorn fart for me.

I get far more rain from random showers on a summer day with no front, than I will ever seen with an organized STRONG COLD FRONT smashing into a high tropical airmass. Epic cold fronts hitting a tropical airmass usually come up dry with only a few fair weather cumulus clouds. We'll be dry for the rest of the year.

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Another near-nothing burger last night.  Increases my total for the month to 1.86", and there is no legit chance of rain for the remainder of this month.  Unreal.  Only this place can pull out a below-normal month during its wettest month (on average) of the year WHILE 99% of the entire region is WAY ABOVE NORMAL.

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Pretty impressive stretch of BN temps coming around here. I chose the GFS because it was readily available, but check out the 2m Temp Anomalies from the 6Z run. It doesn't get AN until around September 2nd/3rd. Then, a warm stretch, but that's far away.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2017082306&fh=0

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2 hours ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Another near-nothing burger last night.  Increases my total for the month to 1.86", and there is no legit chance of rain for the remainder of this month.  Unreal.  Only this place can pull out a below-normal month during its wettest month (on average) of the year WHILE 99% of the entire region is WAY ABOVE NORMAL.

In all seriousness, if you can, you should just move. Even five miles.

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48 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Pretty impressive stretch of BN temps coming around here. I chose the GFS because it was readily available, but check out the 2m Temp Anomalies from the 6Z run. It doesn't get AN until around September 2nd/3rd. Then, a warm stretch, but that's far away.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2017082306&fh=0

We all know it can get plenty hot in September (and October), but that heat starts to get much more bearable as we head deeper into the month since we tend more towards downsloping, dry heat than still, soupy heat. With the expended look of quite (relatively) cool conditions, we're bypassing what can turn out to be a pretty stifling stretch of weather.

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1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Pretty impressive stretch of BN temps coming around here. I chose the GFS because it was readily available, but check out the 2m Temp Anomalies from the 6Z run. It doesn't get AN until around September 2nd/3rd. Then, a warm stretch, but that's far away.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=namer&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2017082306&fh=0

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf-ens&region=us&pkg=T850a&runtime=2017082300&fh=168&xpos=0&ypos=0

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1 hour ago, mattie g said:

We all know it can get plenty hot in September (and October), but that heat starts to get much more bearable as we head deeper into the month since we tend more towards downsloping, dry heat than still, soupy heat. With the expended look of quite (relatively) cool conditions, we're bypassing what can turn out to be a pretty stifling stretch of weather.

Great isn't it? Of course when we have the inverse of this in mid February it completely sucks.

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5 hours ago, North Balti Zen said:

In all seriousness, if you can, you should just move. Even five miles.

I know.  And, seriously, 5 miles is all it would take.... maybe only 2 or 3.  My wife is itching to move too, but she's got another year of staying at home with the littlest one, and i don't want to take on the bigger mortgage it would take on just a single salary.  Until then.... i suffer.

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Don't usually see this in August... even if it is in the UP of MI:

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Marquette MI
306 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017

...FROST EXPECTED OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF WESTERN UPPER
MICHIGAN TONIGHT...

MIZ004-005-010-011-084-240315-
/O.NEW.KMQT.FR.Y.0001.170824T0600Z-170824T1300Z/
Baraga-Marquette-Iron-Dickinson-Southern Houghton-
Including the cities of L`Anse, Gwinn, Marquette, Iron River,
Iron Mountain, Kenton, and Sidnaw
306 PM EDT Wed Aug 23 2017 /206 PM CDT Wed Aug 23 2017/

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ TO 9 AM EDT
/8 AM CDT/ THURSDAY...

The National Weather Service in Marquette has issued a Frost
Advisory, which is in effect from 2 AM EDT /1 AM CDT/ to 9 AM EDT
/8 AM CDT/ Thursday.

Hazardous Weather:

 * Frost will develop tonight as temperatures drop into the low to
   mid 30s over inland portions of western Upper Michigan.
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