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August OBS/DISCO

Round Hill WX

By Round Hill WX,
in Mid Atlantic

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EastCoast NPZ

EastCoast NPZ

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Stormpc said:

Was in Stephens City proper, today. I can report it was MUCH drier than most areas in Va I have been through the past week. Even my yard is still wet-ish from recent rains. I think that Big mountain in the distance that stand out south toward Front Royal robs the moisture. Who knows. Ha!!! Epz Land is a desert. 

Got the pleasure of again baking in sunshine this afternoon while Winchester got poured on.  Oh well, with thunder booming and the torrent of sweat from my body, if I closed my eyes I could pretend it was storming.

I've said it many times, this has got to be the driest area East of the Rockies.

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mappy

mappy

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, GramaxRefugee said:

Looking at my LWX forecast page...seems to advertise a max of 89f, and also a Heat Advisory.

That's strange. One of them must be wrong.

 

Heat advisory isn't dependent on air temperature alone, its air temp and dewpoint combined. 

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BlizzardNole

BlizzardNole

Posted
Posted

I looked rainfall for the last 60 days and Stephens City is definitely in a rain shadow -- it has 8-10" while areas east are 12-20."  Luray was worse with 4-6" for the same period.

Big boomers later?  LWX disco sounds like more to the east.  I've had a lot of rain, but only one actual thunderstorm all season.

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MN Transplant

MN Transplant

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, GramaxRefugee said:

Looking at my LWX forecast page...seems to advertise a max of 89f, and also a Heat Advisory.

That's strange. One of them must be wrong.

  

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Baltimore MD/Washington has
issued a Heat Advisory, which is in effect from 11 AM this
morning to 8 PM EDT this evening.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...Around 105 degrees due to temperatures in
  the lower 90s and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s.
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EastCoast NPZ

EastCoast NPZ

Posted
Posted
46 minutes ago, BlizzardNole said:

I looked rainfall for the last 60 days and Stephens City is definitely in a rain shadow -- it has 8-10" while areas east are 12-20."  Luray was worse with 4-6" for the same period.

Big boomers later?  LWX disco sounds like more to the east.  I've had a lot of rain, but only one actual thunderstorm all season.

Interesting.  Didn't Luray have a huge rain event a few weeks back?  I remember Bob remarking about it; I think he was close by camping or something.

I can categorically state that those estimates are flawed; probably that they are smoothed and can't capture localized extremes very well.  I am nowhere close to 8 inches of rain IMBY the last 60 days.  When I get some time at lunch I'll pull the records from nearby PWS to confirm.

Around 9:30 last night I got missed by another storm.  An absolute huge lightning maker.  The house shook for well over an hour from the intense light-show as it slid just to my west, and then north.  The closest strike was about 1/2 mile away.  I didn't get a solitary drop of rain.  Comical.

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CAPE

CAPE

Posted
Posted

Sight risk for excessive rainfall for I-95 east, but seems pretty iffy-  if it materializes it will be likely be isolated

WPC excessive rainfall outlook for the MA... 

..MID ATLANTIC TO THE NORTHEAST STATES...

MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE WHERE IT WAS AS A
DAY 2 FORECAST.  THE AREA AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT HAS
AN ANOMALOUS AMOUNT OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...ALREADY IN POSITION AS
AN AREA OF HEIGHT FALLS APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. 
IN ADDITION...THE APPROACH OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL ALSO FOCUS
THE ACTIVITY.  WITH NEARLY 2 INCHES OF PRECIPITABEL WATER IN
PLACE...ABOUT 2 STANDARDIZED ANOMALIES ABOVE
CLIMATOLOGY...CONVECTION SHOULD BE EFFICIENT PRODUCERS.  THINKING
IS THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE MID
ATLANTIC WILL BE EAST OF THE I 95 CORRIDOR...WHILE IN THE
NORTHEAST SOME MODELS ARE HINTING THAT THE HEAVY RAIN MAY FORM OFF
SHORE AND NOT GET DRAWN INLAND.  THE SLIGHT RISK CONVEYS THE IDEA
THAT HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN
THIS AREA WHILE SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN...ESPECIALLY WITH RESPECT TO
PLACEMENT.
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MN Transplant

MN Transplant

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said:

Interesting.  Didn't Luray have a huge rain event a few weeks back?  I remember Bob remarking about it; I think he was close by camping or something.

I can categorically state that those estimates are flawed; probably that they are smoothed and can't capture localized extremes very well.  I am nowhere close to 8 inches of rain IMBY the last 60 days.  When I get some time at lunch I'll pull the records from nearby PWS to confirm.

Around 9:30 last night I got missed by another storm.  An absolute huge lightning maker.  The house shook for well over an hour from the intense light-show as it slid just to my west, and then north.  The closest strike was about 1/2 mile away.  I didn't get a solitary drop of rain.  Comical.

 

There is a CoCoRahs reporter (VA-FD-1) that is just north of Tasker road on the NE side of SC and they have 7.89" since 7/1.  

There is a PWS (Davis VP2) that is near Sharando HS that is at 8.1" in that same timeframe. 

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Stormpc

Stormpc

Posted
Posted
30 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

 

There is a CoCoRahs reporter (VA-FD-1) that is just north of Tasker road on the NE side of SC and they have 7.89" since 7/1.  

There is a PWS (Davis VP2) that is near Sharando HS that is at 8.1" in that same timeframe. 

Yes. I was right off Tasker and Lakeside on that side of town. It was green, but the earth was certainly a lot drier than I expected.

 

Since July 1 I have received 11.63". That's quite a bit in 6+ weeks of mid summer, but most of it came in the last 2-3 weeks. You probably have closer to 15-16 inches.

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MN Transplant

MN Transplant

Posted
Posted
43 minutes ago, Stormpc said:

Yes. I was right off Tasker and Lakeside on that side of town. It was green, but the earth was certainly a lot drier than I expected.

 

Since July 1 I have received 11.63". That's quite a bit in 6+ weeks of mid summer, but most of it came in the last 2-3 weeks. You probably have closer to 15-16 inches.

12.89", so you pretty much caught up to me.  Other places just south of me are sitting at 14-15". 

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MN Transplant

MN Transplant

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, yoda said:

Would probably bet LWX issues a FFW in a little bit for I-95 corridor... updated morning disco from them says they are pondering if they will issue one over the next few hours

That would make sense.  The PWATs are nasty and the ground is so saturated.  Don't need a training/redeveloping type situation for flash flooding today.

 

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ErinInTheSky

ErinInTheSky

Posted
Posted

 

1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

What you consider home I consider hel*....lol. dew points near 80 aren't fun working in . It better storm Like no tomorrow imby. :lol:

Oh god you'd hate Louisiana then. We had 107 days in a row with highs above 90 degrees (usually 95-97, sometimes 100), every day with humidity like this, last summer in Baton Rouge.

 

But in small doses like today, I love it.

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EastCoast NPZ

EastCoast NPZ

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, MN Transplant said:

 

There is a CoCoRahs reporter (VA-FD-1) that is just north of Tasker road on the NE side of SC and they have 7.89" since 7/1.  

There is a PWS (Davis VP2) that is near Sharando HS that is at 8.1" in that same timeframe. 

Thank you for that.

I checked the nearest wxunderground PWS and it agrees with that. Actually recorded 9.5" since June 18.  Wetter than I thought, although it is located east of I-81 where the storms typically form/intensify.  It definitely gets a bit more rain than MBY.  Definitely wetter to this point than most summers here, but we seem to have entered into another period where it refuses to storm locally.

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KVASTEPH1#history/s20170817/e20170817/mdaily

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MN Transplant

MN Transplant

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, yoda said:

Would probably bet LWX issues a FFW in a little bit for I-95 corridor... updated morning disco from them says they are pondering if they will issue one over the next few hours 

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

The National Weather Service in Sterling Virginia has issued a

* Flash Flood Watch for portions of Maryland, The District of
  Columbia, and Virginia, including the following areas, in
  Maryland, Anne Arundel, Calvert, Carroll, Central and
  Southeast Howard, Central and Southeast Montgomery, Charles,
  Frederick MD, Northern Baltimore, Northwest Harford, Northwest
  Howard, Northwest Montgomery, Prince Georges, Southeast
  Harford, Southern Baltimore, and St. Marys. The District of
  Columbia. In Virginia, Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria,
  Culpeper, Eastern Loudoun, Fairfax, King George, Madison,
  Northern Fauquier, Orange, Prince William/Manassas/Manassas
  Park, Rappahannock, Southern Fauquier, Spotsylvania, Stafford,
  and Western Loudoun.

* Through late tonight

* Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall are expected across the region
  this afternoon and evening. The potential for training
  thunderstorms exists, which could result in several inches of
  rain in one to two hours. Soils are already very moist, meaning
  most of this rain would rapidly run off.

* Runoff from excessive rainfall may cause rapid rises of water
  in low-lying and poor drainage areas as well as streams and
  creeks, resulting in flash flooding. Urban areas will be most
  susceptible.
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