Winter 17-18 Outlook

[Rtd208]

NJ.com article about some of the 2017/18 winter outlooks that were issued for our region.

http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/11/experts_reveal_winter_predictions_nj_snow_forecast.html#incart_river_home_pop

[Birds~69]

5 hours ago, Rtd208 said:

NJ.com article about some of the 2017/18 winter outlooks that were issued for our region.

http://www.nj.com/weather/index.ssf/2017/11/experts_reveal_winter_predictions_nj_snow_forecast.html#incart_river_home_pop

Not very encouraging...

[Rtd208]

Not necessarily a big ticket winter but not bad either.

https://www.vencoreweather.com/20172018-winter-outlook

[ChescoWx]

Really liking the potential for more ice events this year than recent seasons....also starting to look like a relative quick start to winter (compared with recent Decembers) I would not be surprised to see our 1st measurable snow before the end of the 1st week of December this year here in NW Chesco.

WeatherBell is riding 2005 and 2010 Analogs for December and it looks like CFS is starting to come around to a cooler than normal look. For reference those Decembers looked like the below here in Chesco

2010 - Temp 4.4 below normal with 7.0" of snow

2005 - Temp 1.9 below normal with 10.8" of snow

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

My brief and to-the-point completely amateur/hobbyist winter 17-18 Outlook (focus on KDYL):

• La Nina early trending neutral late in season.
• Analog Years: 1950-51, 1971-72, 1985-86, 1995-96, 2000-2001, 2013-14
• SST anomalies +2 - +5 off of Mid Atl.....Gulf Stream notably West based vs norm / SSTs well above normal Nova Scotia
• AO outlook to trend negative with staying power
• + snowcover anomalies across Greenland / Siberia

With these basic ideas in mind, I expect to see a return to some sense of norm in the area this winter with a balance between snow/rain....very cold/seasonal temps. Active storm pattern with Miller B as the general storm track theme with Alberta Clippers finally making a return this year. While the pattern may be fast overall, expect quite a few dips in the polar jet across the Northeast as the SE Ridge continues to be punched back to our South. Clippers will reinforce the trof at times with a fast flow embedded. Not to say we wont see a thaw or two this season but the active dips in the PJ will likely keep the SE Ridge feature suppressed overall as the general theme. Warm SSTs off the Mid Atl will throw several significant EC low threats to the area in the form of Miller B's. Storm track will generally remain off the coast BUT several snow to rain events are likely as systems come just close enough to the coast while developing. With the deep and early snowcover up North and the expanse of cold air building across Canada coupled with blocking expected to develop near Greenland (-NAO) and an active storm and gradient pattern, overunning will be a feature this season with quite a few 'thump' events.....some will transition to mix/rain, others will be quick moving with the pattern and give us a few measurable all-snow events. In general, expect snowfall to be normal to above normal, precipitation normal, temps below normal to normal DJF. Was never one to break down each month going into a season but based on the pattern since July, the fact the Phillipe/Noreaster was a transient pattern flip which doesnt look like it will hold, among other ideas I outlined in previous posts, expecting December and the winter season to start off with a few solid threats to whiten the ground. Higher than avg chance for snow on the ground for Christmas this year. Winter ends 1st week of March for all intents and purposes. Not wall-to-wall cold but plenty of cold snaps and plenty of action to keep us hobbyists and pros busy this year. 

 

 

[bigtenfan]

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

My brief and to-the-point completely amateur/hobbyist winter 17-18 Outlook (focus on KDYL):

• La Nina early trending neutral late in season.
• Analog Years: 1950-51, 1971-72, 1985-86, 1995-96, 2000-2001, 2013-14
• SST anomalies +2 - +5 off of Mid Atl.....Gulf Stream notably West based vs norm / SSTs well above normal Nova Scotia
• AO outlook to trend negative with staying power
• + snowcover anomalies across Greenland / Siberia

With these basic ideas in mind, I expect to see a return to some sense of norm in the area this winter with a balance between snow/rain....very cold/seasonal temps. Active storm pattern with Miller B as the general storm track theme with Alberta Clippers finally making a return this year. While the pattern may be fast overall, expect quite a few dips in the polar jet across the Northeast as the SE Ridge continues to be punched back to our South. Clippers will reinforce the trof at times with a fast flow embedded. Not to say we wont see a thaw or two this season but the active dips in the PJ will likely keep the SE Ridge feature suppressed overall as the general theme. Warm SSTs off the Mid Atl will throw several significant EC low threats to the area in the form of Miller B's. Storm track will generally remain off the coast BUT several snow to rain events are likely as systems come just close enough to the coast while developing. With the deep and early snowcover up North and the expanse of cold air building across Canada coupled with blocking expected to develop near Greenland (-NAO) and an active storm and gradient pattern, overunning will be a feature this season with quite a few 'thump' events.....some will transition to mix/rain, others will be quick moving with the pattern and give us a few measurable all-snow events. In general, expect snowfall to be normal to above normal, precipitation normal, temps below normal to normal DJF. Was never one to break down each month going into a season but based on the pattern since July, the fact the Phillipe/Noreaster was a transient pattern flip which doesnt look like it will hold, among other ideas I outlined in previous posts, expecting December and the winter season to start off with a few solid threats to whiten the ground. Higher than avg chance for snow on the ground for Christmas this year. Winter ends 1st week of March for all intents and purposes. Not wall-to-wall cold but plenty of cold snaps and plenty of action to keep us hobbyists and pros busy this year. 

 

 

SOLD!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Rtd208]

Earthlight and crew.

 

[RedSky]

DT final winter outlook - get the snowblowers tuned up

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

DT final winter outlook - get the snowblowers tuned up

 

 

Didnt his first guess preliminary pre forecast discussion of his ideas in his prequel to the final outlook suggest the opposite though?

[Rtd208]

DT (Wxrisk) Final 2017-18 Winter Outlook

https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/11/WINTERFINAL1718.pdf

[RedSky]

2 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

8 hours ago, RedSky said:

DT final winter outlook - get the snowblowers tuned up

 

 
 

Didnt his first guess preliminary pre forecast discussion of his ideas in his prequel to the final outlook suggest the opposite though?

Hehe no he has been against the calls for a mild winter this chill November has convinced him it would seem.

 

 

[Rtd208]

In Larry Cosgrove's weekly newsletter he does acknowledge the models showing a colder pattern beginning the 2nd week of December but does have concerns that the warm shelf and gulf stream waters could limit wintry weather chances along the eastern seaboard with precipitation being more wet then white. He also has some concerns that the last 2 weeks of December could slide back to a semi zonal flow as well. He is more or less still on the train that the mid west and great lakes will be the big winners this winter which would continue to support his winter outlook agenda. Have to see how things continue to evolve as we head into December but I am liking how things are evolving so far especially from week 2 of December forward.

[The Iceman]

On 10/26/2017 at 8:42 AM, The Iceman said:

Here's my totally amateur winter forecast based on what I have learned in a few met classes and from being a hobbyist here for the last 10+ years(yikes time flies). I used a blend of analogs and the limited knowledge on long range tele-connection forecasting that I have as well as the general pattern through October. My analog year were 61-62, 67-68,80-81, 85-86, 96-97, 00-01, 08-09, 13-14. I chose these largely based on ENSO. They are largely all 2nd year weak or neutral nina's after some warming in the beginning of the year. The warm October is a great sign for at least a good start to winter as many of our good years feature this. Also with the theme of coastal's even if some are out to sea or just inland is a good sign imo for an active storm track in the next few months. Concerns with the pattern now are the SE Ridge that just doesn't want to die that has been locked in for some tme now and the reoccurring trough over Alaska which is usually a death kneel for our area. Signs for a -NAO look fairly good to at least start winter. SST's in the N atlantic are much above normal and long range models have been showing height rises in the Greenland area for a good bit now. This leads me to believe that we will at least start the winter in a -NAO/-AO regime. Now the pacific is much trickier as it has been behaving more like a nino lately than a Nina which actually may not be a bad thing. We want an active southern jet so we are not left dry. Forecasts right now are also trending towards a -EPO which is usually good for a snowy period but the trend to keep a trough over Alaska at some point is something that doesn't seem to want to go away. I think we get some breaks from the Pacific but when it breaks down, it will drive our pattern more than the Atlantic. I think we get periods of +PNA but the majority of the time it is a -PNA. Now this isn't the end all be all but it does lead to toughing in the west which can prevent the spread of cold air towards us even with a -NAO and -AO. With all of that said I think it is a good probability that we have a good start to winter based on the Pacific looking to cooperate in this time period, a good probability of a -NAO, the amount of cold air that is due to overtake Canada in the next week, along with the Analogs giving credence to a good pattern to start that goes until mid January. I do there will be periods of mildness even in this timeframe so it isn't all cold but it will provide our best chance for snow. Once the Alaskan trough locks in, our pattern flips and we see above average temps through March and below average precip. So at least the good news is there won't be many super soakers I am thinking. So with all of that said here is my forecast for winter in our area.

 

December - Temps 0 to -2; Snowfall above average; Active storm track - due to December climatology some will be rain or mix while N and W cashes in. I think there will be a few overrunning events towards the end of the months as well. 

January - Temps +1 to +3, the above average temps in 2nd half of the month outweigh the slightly below average temps in 1st half and maybe first 2/3rds of month. As we have seen in years past that pattern changes usually take longer than anticipated; Snowfall average. I think the storm track remains active in the first part of the month and this is our best shot of snow. The time period before the pattern change could be the big storm for the winter. Pattern changes mid-late month and along with it the storm track becomes less active and temps rise. Could see a pattern close to september/october imo. 

February - Temps +3 to +5, Strong torch to begin the month. Cold shots are transient. Snowfall Below average. Similar pattern to what we are saw the past month and a half. Mild temps with a few fronts that bring a bit of rain but overall warm and dry. Temps could be underdone honestly as I do not think we see more than a few BN temp days.

DJF - Temps +1 to +3. I don't think we have even a majority torch winter but the times of above average will strongly out perform the below average anomalies. A week of much above average temps can cancel out 2 weeks of below normal temps and I think that happens this winter. Snowfall - I think the area finishes with average snowfall with N and W having a better chance of above average while City, immediate burbs, SNJ a better chance of below average. I can't see Philly, immediate burbs, SNJ being above average with February, typically the snowiest month, likely being a dud. Historically December does not deliver huge storms in our area outside of N and W so while we do better than average that still may only account for 6 to 8 inches. If December storms do not deliver for the philly area then I think they finish slightly below average on the year even if we cash in during the first few weeks of January. Losing our snowiest month. N and W historically does much better in December and I think that they will get decent storms where the coastal plain and Delmarva gets a mix or rain especially in december so I think they have a much better chance of seeing average or above average snow. As we have seen in recent years though that one storm can make or break these forecasts so I am not real confident either way. 15-16 was arguably one of the worst winters since 2000 but we finished with average or above average due to the monster storm.

 

Bonus March: Should be a fun month as I think the cold returns in the 1st week but the analogs point to below average precip. I do think we see some snowfall though and it could be enough to bring us to our average on the coastal plain. Could also see the big one that brings us to above average. March is a crap shoot like that but I do think precip will be below average. I don't see it being a torch month. I would go -1 to +1 on temps.

 

Thanks for reading and I wouldn't use this for any planning purposes 

As we close in towards the end of met winter...I am going to review my seasonal forecast as I really didn't include March.

 

December- Temps verified slightly below normal pretty much across the boards. Everyone also was at or above average snowfall. One place I was off was N and W doing better than 95 but overall forecast was pretty good. A/A-

 

January - Temps were forecasted too high but the progression of the month played out as I thought. Cold period was colder than normal and warm period wasn't as torchy as I thought. Snowfall was pretty bang on as most areas were close to normal for jan and we did see a big storm but it was just a bit too far out to see for it to be a major storm here. overall - B

 

February - After looking like it may bust temp wise, i actually verified quite well with temps. Pretty spot on for that and below normal snowfall. But I thought the month would be dry and it was far from a dry month so that part was a fail on my end. Overall B-

 

Overall I would grade my forecast a solid B+ for this year. I haven't done the math, but I believe most places will be a bit above average with February coming in so AN overall for winter and most areas are around average for snowfall or just a bit below which I thought would be the case. Pretty solid LR forecast this year but I in no way can claim that this was due to any high degree level of skill. I mostly based my forecast heavy on analogs and the fall pattern leading into winter. I know there are definitely times where this will burn me. I'll take a forecast verification like this any year though and look forward to doing the research again for next winter! I want to do my first severe outlook for April May and June but we'll see how that goes. Thanks all for reading and any criticism is certainly welcome!