The Plowsman Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 For all us snow lovers...post your thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 December +7 January +16 February - sunny and sometimes hot Some frost but no snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 A flake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 Should be better with the -QBO and the low solar flux Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted July 31, 2017 Share Posted July 31, 2017 Thinking above average. Not "weenie thinking"......just thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted August 28, 2017 Author Share Posted August 28, 2017 Bump...no other predictions...Ralph? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 1 hour ago, The Plowsman said: Bump...no other predictions...Ralph? I think Ralph's in hibernation till Labor Day+ then someone should wake him... Mid Atlantic has a thread which I check here and there...which is close to us: http://tinyurl.com/ybcx37mo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted August 28, 2017 Author Share Posted August 28, 2017 Lol great thx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted August 28, 2017 Share Posted August 28, 2017 7 hours ago, Birds~69 said: I think Ralph's in hibernation till Labor Day+ then someone should wake him... Mid Atlantic has a thread which I check here and there...which is close to us: http://tinyurl.com/ybcx37mo He's been in the Harvey thread in the Tropical Weather forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted August 31, 2017 Share Posted August 31, 2017 I think this winter will be average. I'm really just an amateur who took a few years of met classes until switching majors but from what I've seen so far I think that we have a strong start with a weak finish to winter. Could see december and january giving us the most snowfall while being below average/average then a flip over to a milder pattern mid late jan into february with above average temps and precip. Pattern changes again in March but too late to bring anything significant. Mostly basing this off most analogs I've looked at indicate a solid december. initial thoughts are DEC -1/Jan +2/Feb +5 with normal snowfall and above average precip. I think we will see a few overrunning events that will get us our biggest totals. I'll have a better idea beginning of october to make a somewhat confident call then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted September 1, 2017 Share Posted September 1, 2017 6 hours ago, The Iceman said: I think this winter will be average. I'm really just an amateur who took a few years of met classes until switching majors but from what I've seen so far I think that we have a strong start with a weak finish to winter. Could see december and january giving us the most snowfall while being below average/average then a flip over to a milder pattern mid late jan into february with above average temps and precip. Pattern changes again in March but too late to bring anything significant. Mostly basing this off most analogs I've looked at indicate a solid december. initial thoughts are DEC -1/Jan +2/Feb +5 with normal snowfall and above average precip. I think we will see a few overrunning events that will get us our biggest totals. I'll have a better idea beginning of october to make a somewhat confident call then. I would easily take that. (Front end winter) Late winters suck...if it does snow, it melts the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted September 2, 2017 Share Posted September 2, 2017 Major bumper crop of hickory nuts falling this year, also the black walnut trees I am familiar with are dropping heavy numbers after a couple off years. Spotted a wooly caterpillar the other day with a big brown band with black at opposite ends with the black also circling around the entire bug, looked strange maybe these are good signals. I also remember last winter the predominant thoughts were a strong start and a mild finish and of course the opposite was true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted September 9, 2017 Share Posted September 9, 2017 Saw my first wooly bear of the season with no stripe. Not sure what that means but it can't be a good sign for the upcoming winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted September 10, 2017 Share Posted September 10, 2017 8 hours ago, JTA66 said: Saw my first wooly bear of the season with no stripe. Not sure what that means but it can't be a good sign for the upcoming winter. wikipedia says this: "it is believed that if a Woolly Bear caterpillar's brown stripe is thick, the winter weather will be mild and if the brown stripe is narrow, the winter will be severe." no stripe to me means winter 17-18 will likely be a combination of the precip of 09-10 and 95-96 with the temps of 93-94. better stock up now for the impending snowmagaddon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted September 13, 2017 Share Posted September 13, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 4:01 PM, JTA66 said: Saw my first wooly bear of the season with no stripe. Not sure what that means but it can't be a good sign for the upcoming winter. I found one like that too - all black with no brown band. May have to batten down the hatches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted September 21, 2017 Share Posted September 21, 2017 Paul Pastelok from Accuwx released his winter forecast. Basically near normal temps, slightly above average precip, near average snowfall. Looks like Dec is the warmest relative to normal, Jan coolest relative to normal and Feb near average. Not a blockbuster, but I'll take my chances with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 30, 2017 Share Posted September 30, 2017 I try and post something solid around Halloween, no later. I don't play the +1, -2, etc monthlies game. I use a general seasonal approach in terms of above normal, near normal, below normal in terms of temps/precip (snowfall). Dry and cool late summer/early autumn is a big signal imho, but I am waiting to see how temps play out thru the start of the 2nd half of Oct. Hemispheric pattern has generally been favorable for frequent trofs in the NE. We had a Nor'easter in July this year (rare). WAR has popped in a somewhat more favorable position in those occasions it has reared it's ugly head. Caribbean tropical cycle has been AN. I don't get too deep into whether the teleconnections have been +/-, for how long a ridge has appeared in Pango Pango vs trof features, etc etc. I don't over-think it.....I try and get a feel for what is happening hemispherically and what the REAL weather has been in certain parts of the nation. Cooler than normal August, for example, doesn't mean a colder than normal December but all factors combined tend to play into my feelings on how I believe the winter will play out for us as a whole. I take a very unscientific and amateur approach with my outlooks and leave the sometimes overly thought-out analysis to the pros who get paid to do this stuff. Quite frankly, any seasonal outlook is pretty much a shot at a dart board, dont let anyone tell you otherwise. That's not to say clues cant be gathered and some pieces put together, but overall it's still merely a guessing game. I will post some of my thoughts in a couple of weeks. Hoping Oct temps can avg near or even above normal for us.....more on that later. eta: fwiw, my pumpkin vine has yielded 32 pumpkins thus far and is twice the amount of my largest single yield already with another dozen or so still ripening on the vine. Has been a banner harvest year, for whatever that might mean for winter weather clues ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted September 30, 2017 Share Posted September 30, 2017 On 8/31/2017 at 3:20 PM, The Iceman said: ... I think that we have a strong start with a weak finish to winter. Leaning the same way for NOW. Waiting to see what next 3 weeks look like before committing completely. Am really feeling if Oct can avg anywhere besides below normal for temps, we are going to get hit early and often with a high probability for a WC. If Oct plays out the way I am hoping, also agree with an early finish to winter this year. Not saying 80s in March, but not like the past few with snows in March and April respectively. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted October 21, 2017 Author Share Posted October 21, 2017 Bump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted October 22, 2017 Share Posted October 22, 2017 I don't like the fact that it's warm AND dry. At least if it was warm and wet, that would suggest there's a clash of air masses. But the fact that it's been dry tells me the ridge is comfortably in place and not being challenged. It's only Oct and a lot can and probably will change, so I'll remain optimistic for a "normal" winter for now. Any accumulating snow before Thanksgiving and I'm throwing in the towel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted October 26, 2017 Share Posted October 26, 2017 Here's my totally amateur winter forecast based on what I have learned in a few met classes and from being a hobbyist here for the last 10+ years(yikes time flies). I used a blend of analogs and the limited knowledge on long range tele-connection forecasting that I have as well as the general pattern through October. My analog year were 61-62, 67-68,80-81, 85-86, 96-97, 00-01, 08-09, 13-14. I chose these largely based on ENSO. They are largely all 2nd year weak or neutral nina's after some warming in the beginning of the year. The warm October is a great sign for at least a good start to winter as many of our good years feature this. Also with the theme of coastal's even if some are out to sea or just inland is a good sign imo for an active storm track in the next few months. Concerns with the pattern now are the SE Ridge that just doesn't want to die that has been locked in for some tme now and the reoccurring trough over Alaska which is usually a death kneel for our area. Signs for a -NAO look fairly good to at least start winter. SST's in the N atlantic are much above normal and long range models have been showing height rises in the Greenland area for a good bit now. This leads me to believe that we will at least start the winter in a -NAO/-AO regime. Now the pacific is much trickier as it has been behaving more like a nino lately than a Nina which actually may not be a bad thing. We want an active southern jet so we are not left dry. Forecasts right now are also trending towards a -EPO which is usually good for a snowy period but the trend to keep a trough over Alaska at some point is something that doesn't seem to want to go away. I think we get some breaks from the Pacific but when it breaks down, it will drive our pattern more than the Atlantic. I think we get periods of +PNA but the majority of the time it is a -PNA. Now this isn't the end all be all but it does lead to toughing in the west which can prevent the spread of cold air towards us even with a -NAO and -AO. With all of that said I think it is a good probability that we have a good start to winter based on the Pacific looking to cooperate in this time period, a good probability of a -NAO, the amount of cold air that is due to overtake Canada in the next week, along with the Analogs giving credence to a good pattern to start that goes until mid January. I do there will be periods of mildness even in this timeframe so it isn't all cold but it will provide our best chance for snow. Once the Alaskan trough locks in, our pattern flips and we see above average temps through March and below average precip. So at least the good news is there won't be many super soakers I am thinking. So with all of that said here is my forecast for winter in our area. December - Temps 0 to -2; Snowfall above average; Active storm track - due to December climatology some will be rain or mix while N and W cashes in. I think there will be a few overrunning events towards the end of the months as well. January - Temps +1 to +3, the above average temps in 2nd half of the month outweigh the slightly below average temps in 1st half and maybe first 2/3rds of month. As we have seen in years past that pattern changes usually take longer than anticipated; Snowfall average. I think the storm track remains active in the first part of the month and this is our best shot of snow. The time period before the pattern change could be the big storm for the winter. Pattern changes mid-late month and along with it the storm track becomes less active and temps rise. Could see a pattern close to september/october imo. February - Temps +3 to +5, Strong torch to begin the month. Cold shots are transient. Snowfall Below average. Similar pattern to what we are saw the past month and a half. Mild temps with a few fronts that bring a bit of rain but overall warm and dry. Temps could be underdone honestly as I do not think we see more than a few BN temp days. DJF - Temps +1 to +3. I don't think we have even a majority torch winter but the times of above average will strongly out perform the below average anomalies. A week of much above average temps can cancel out 2 weeks of below normal temps and I think that happens this winter. Snowfall - I think the area finishes with average snowfall with N and W having a better chance of above average while City, immediate burbs, SNJ a better chance of below average. I can't see Philly, immediate burbs, SNJ being above average with February, typically the snowiest month, likely being a dud. Historically December does not deliver huge storms in our area outside of N and W so while we do better than average that still may only account for 6 to 8 inches. If December storms do not deliver for the philly area then I think they finish slightly below average on the year even if we cash in during the first few weeks of January. Losing our snowiest month. N and W historically does much better in December and I think that they will get decent storms where the coastal plain and Delmarva gets a mix or rain especially in december so I think they have a much better chance of seeing average or above average snow. As we have seen in recent years though that one storm can make or break these forecasts so I am not real confident either way. 15-16 was arguably one of the worst winters since 2000 but we finished with average or above average due to the monster storm. Bonus March: Should be a fun month as I think the cold returns in the 1st week but the analogs point to below average precip. I do think we see some snowfall though and it could be enough to bring us to our average on the coastal plain. Could also see the big one that brings us to above average. March is a crap shoot like that but I do think precip will be below average. I don't see it being a torch month. I would go -1 to +1 on temps. Thanks for reading and I wouldn't use this for any planning purposes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 On 9/9/2017 at 4:01 PM, JTA66 said: Saw my first wooly bear of the season with no stripe. Not sure what that means but it can't be a good sign for the upcoming winter. Check the squirrel tails in your neighborhood. Fluffy or not also is an excellent barometer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 On 9/10/2017 at 0:45 AM, The Iceman said: wikipedia says this: "it is believed that if a Woolly Bear caterpillar's brown stripe is thick, the winter weather will be mild and if the brown stripe is narrow, the winter will be severe." no stripe to me means winter 17-18 will likely be a combination of the precip of 09-10 and 95-96 with the temps of 93-94. better stock up now for the impending snowmagaddon. WTF, nothing about squirrel tails? I knew not to trust Wikipedia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 16" of snow for the season, the majority from lame ass 2 to 3 inch snowfall amounts and clippers. One decent 8" snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 29, 2017 Share Posted October 29, 2017 DT (WxRisk) Preliminary 2017-18 Winter Forecast. https://www.wxrisk.com/wp-content/uploads/2017/10/WINTERPRELIM1718short.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted October 30, 2017 Share Posted October 30, 2017 DT's call for a near normal winter is the first positive sign that another warm dud isn't coming. Also bucking the other calls with the mildest month as December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 Larry Cosgrove released his winter outlook and its not great for cold/snow lovers but we kind of new that from hints he gave in the previous weekend newsletter but his monthly confidence levels don't seem very high either. Without going into to much detail here is a quick breakdown. November: Temps-above normal to much above. Confidence level 5 out of 10 December: Temps- much above normal. Confidence level 4 out of 10 January: Temps- much above normal. Confidence level 4 out of 10 February: Temps- near to above normal. Confidence level 3 out of 10 March: Temps- near to above normal. Confidence level 2 out of 10 Snowfall: Below normal For those who are on his email list you can read it in detail for yourselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 13 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: Larry Cosgrove released his winter outlook and its not great for cold/snow lovers but we kind of new that from hints he gave in the previous weekend newsletter but his monthly confidence levels don't seem very high either. Without going into to much detail here is a quick breakdown. November: Temps-above normal to much above. Confidence level 5 out of 10 December: Temps- much above normal. Confidence level 4 out of 10 January: Temps- much above normal. Confidence level 4 out of 10 February: Temps- near to above normal. Confidence level 3 out of 10 March: Temps- near to above normal. Confidence level 2 out of 10 Snowfall: Below normal For those who are on his email list you can read it in detail for yourselves. So he is not very confident in his forecast from what he says. Well below 50% confidence overall. I am on the delayed start to winter train for our general area. Last storm completely bucked the good pattern we had going for several months which is precisely why I like to wait until Nov 1 to release concrete ideas as opposed to general musings before then. Pattern reversal and shift to progressive then South central and SE Ridge flexing will likely delay things a good 3 weeks unless we can get another major pattern changer to come thru sooner. Hopefully just delayed and not denied. More later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: So he is not very confident in his forecast from what he says. Well below 50% confidence overall. I am on the delayed start to winter train for our general area. Last storm completely bucked the good pattern we had going for several months which is precisely why I like to wait until Nov 1 to release concrete ideas as opposed to general musings before then. Pattern reversal and shift to progressive then South central and SE Ridge flexing will likely delay things a good 3 weeks unless we can get another major pattern changer to come thru sooner. Hopefully just delayed and not denied. More later. Looks that way, if I recall correctly his outlook from last winter had a bit higher confidence levels and his overall winter outlook wound up being fairly accurate. Obviously I hope he is wrong this year and his lower confidence levels did throw up a red flag for me. We will have to see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted October 31, 2017 Share Posted October 31, 2017 I read his email and to me it started off how he wasn't leaning towards a typical La Nina then he basically calls for a weak to mod La Nina type pattern, however reading between the lines looks like he left the door open to a cold neutral as a way out of his call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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