doncat Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: It's been common recently. Plenty of mets have been complaining about it on twitter. They made some type of change to better reflect the UHI effect, but it made it worthless imo...it's that way for nyc, don't know if the same problem exists elsewhere. When you run thru the 2m temp anomaly, it just shows constant above normal around the city and a good distance surrounding it, while all around is below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 10 minutes ago, doncat said: They made some type of change to better reflect the UHI effect, but it made it worthless imo...it's that way for nyc, don't know if the same problem exists elsewhere. When you run thru the 2m temp anomaly, it just shows constant above normal around the city and a good distance surrounding it, while all around is below normal. Meteorologists from all across the country have reported the raw 2m warm bias. The MOS reduces it to some extent but can still run warm. I have mostly been using the NAM and Euro for temps. They are probably working on a patch or fix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 before computers meteorologists had to use temperature observations from across the country be make temperature forecasts for the next day...they did a good job doing it manually... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 15 minutes ago, Morris said: That area has been an extreme rainfall and flooding hotspot since 2015. https://spacecityweather.com/houston-wettest-months-record/ Houston just shattered its rainfall record for an 18-month period This post summarizes the historically wet period from the spring of 2015 through the summer of 2016 for the greater Houston area. Not only did the region set a record for total rainfall, it also experienced an astounding six significant rainfall events in just a little more than 12 months. Read on for a full analysis. Based upon data from the National Weather Service, the 18-month period from March 1, 2015, through August 31, 2016, ranks as the wettest 18-month period on record for the city of Houston. In fact, the table below shows that each of the top-five wettest 18 month periods in Houston came during the last two years. Prior to 2015, Houston’s wettest consecutive 18 months had yielded a total of 106.68 inches. The March 1, 2015, through August 31, 2016 period annihilated that record by more than a foot of rain, with a total of 119.77 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 5 hours ago, Rjay said: .26 at Wantagh last night Keeping with the can't crack a quarter inch. Either the rain gage is off (which i think is possible based on last weeks heavy rain event) or this area really is the desert of the region. I have put allot of thought into this and apparently pre development a sliver of the pine barrens extended along the south shore to Brooklyn. It's not a soil but rather rainfall issue. Soils in the wantagh area are more red clay then sand as they are out in the pine barrens. Slightly off topic but an interesting thought as to why we just can't buy summer rain south of the SS on the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Meteorologists from all across the country have reported the raw 2m warm bias. The MOS reduces it to some extent but can still run warm. I have mostly been using the NAM and Euro for temps. They are probably working on a patch or fix. GFS high 88 today it's 79 now at 2pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 3 hours ago, CIK62 said: http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KNYC Looks like the 12z run adjusted the high temp for tomorrow. Went from 92 down to 82. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 2 hours ago, KEITH L.I said: GFS high 88 today it's 79 now at 2pm NWS was also too high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 4 hours ago, bluewave said: That area has been an extreme rainfall and flooding hotspot since 2015. https://spacecityweather.com/houston-wettest-months-record/ Houston just shattered its rainfall record for an 18-month period This post summarizes the historically wet period from the spring of 2015 through the summer of 2016 for the greater Houston area. Not only did the region set a record for total rainfall, it also experienced an astounding six significant rainfall events in just a little more than 12 months. Read on for a full analysis. Based upon data from the National Weather Service, the 18-month period from March 1, 2015, through August 31, 2016, ranks as the wettest 18-month period on record for the city of Houston. In fact, the table below shows that each of the top-five wettest 18 month periods in Houston came during the last two years. Prior to 2015, Houston’s wettest consecutive 18 months had yielded a total of 106.68 inches. The March 1, 2015, through August 31, 2016 period annihilated that record by more than a foot of rain, with a total of 119.77 inches. May 2015 in Austin is probably the rainiest month I've ever seen, rivaling and probably exceeding Aug 2011 up here. I had over 20" of rain that month (May 2015), and drought turned to record flooding in the area. Halloween 2015 was also insane, there was over 5" of rain in an hour at Austin's airport and locally 17" for an event total. That was in association with a former hurricane from the Pacific (I think Patricia). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 15 minutes ago, jm1220 said: May 2015 in Austin is probably the rainiest month I've ever seen, rivaling and probably exceeding Aug 2011 up here. I had over 20" of rain that month (May 2015), and drought turned to record flooding in the area. Halloween 2015 was also insane, there was over 5" of rain in an hour at Austin's airport and locally 17" for an event total. That was in association with a former hurricane from the Pacific (I think Patricia). These extreme rainfall events are becoming more common. The Euro, GFS, and UKMET all stall Harvey somewhere over SE Texas. It will just come down to the exact location of the stall as to which areas get the highest totals and most severe flash flooding. The blocking to the N and NE of the storm is very impressive like we have seen numerous times recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 23, 2017 Share Posted August 23, 2017 Gfs has 92L just offshore near the area at 156 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 24, 2017 Author Share Posted August 24, 2017 Just curious, what is the highest daily rainfall total ever recorded in NJ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 NYC is -0.1F and LGA is +0.1F. With the next days looking slightly below normal, 77/60 or so versus a mean of 74F, the stations should finish August with a small negative departure. Summer looks to finish dead on normal with June and July around 0.5F anomaly. Low number of 90+ days and that looks pretty much done with a trough dominanting through September. Historically 90-degree potential closes around 9/15 (with exception like 1983 and 1944) so we are running out of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Beautiful morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 58 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Next 8 days about -1deg. (Avg. 72-73). GFS has zippo precip. for 10 days, while CMC still develops a TS near Florida and gets it close to us by the 30th. 3" rain + 60mph. gusts, it insists. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Low of 67 here, ending my 11 day streak of 70+ lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Our new era of stuck or stagnant weather patterns continues. The ridge over the Western US and trough near the Great Lakes persists into early September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Our new era of stuck or stagnant weather patterns continues. The ridge over the Western US and trough near the Great Lakes persists into early September. Let's keep it stuck until February 2018! ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Gfs has the trough coming in quicker with 92L coming up but then jumps towards the convection and goes ots. We should watch this carefully . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Those euro rainfall totals for SE TX exceed 25"... wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 Only 79.3F for my high so far after 57F this morning. Will be interesting to see how many days can achieve 70s highs/50s lows. Definitely one of the coolest last weeks of August in my memory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 26 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Only 79.3F for my high so far after 57F this morning. Will be interesting to see how many days can achieve 70s highs/50s lows. Definitely one of the coolest last weeks of August in my memory. feels more like the 3rd week of September... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 24, 2017 Share Posted August 24, 2017 7 hours ago, Eduardo said: Let's keep it stuck until February 2018! ;-) A big trough over Alaska and fast west to east flow over Greenland? I'll definitely pass on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 4 hours ago, jm1220 said: A big trough over Alaska and fast west to east flow over Greenland? I'll definitely pass on that. That's a nice PNA pattern. Not super cold but would definitively give Nor'easters threats. Block is cut-off near Hudson Bay...West based -NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 7 hours ago, Isotherm said: Only 79.3F for my high so far after 57F this morning. Will be interesting to see how many days can achieve 70s highs/50s lows. Definitely one of the coolest last weeks of August in my memory. Should be cooler this weekend. Even 50s here in the Bronx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 62 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 Next 8 days holding near -1deg. (Avg. 72-73). CMC continues with an earlier development than the GFS on potential EC system, and keeps it close enough for tropical effects here on the 29th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 25, 2017 Share Posted August 25, 2017 4 minutes ago, CIK62 said: Next 8 days holding near -1deg. (Avg. 72-73). CMC continues with an earlier development than the GFS on potential EC system, and keeps it close enough for tropical effects here on the 29th. Euro was very close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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