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August 2017 Observations & Discussion Thread


Rtd208

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17 hours ago, bluewave said:

Be interesting to see if Tuesday turns out to be the last potential 90 degree day of the year. The weeklies don't have much in the way of heat potential from later August into early September. 

 

ecmwf-ens_T850a_us_4.thumb.png.e792d8c8e5a4f882b51ee1008d32a204.png

ecmwf-ens_T850aMean_us_6.thumb.png.3abee32b5ded089261ef5e6941c674e7.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

Agreed 7/23 (very much like 2013) a switch went off in the atmosphere and any push of heat or ridging into the NE struggled.

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Still waiting for my first 90F day in August. We'll see if Tuesday will do it. Today's likely mid 80s, and tomorrow may be disrupted by the eclipse.

Gorgeous morning with a cool breeze. The interludes of high dew points have been very ephemeral this summer. 

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GDPS still has this stubborn TS near us this time next week.   This is the same system that the GFS had last Sun-Tues period, for two weeks hence.

http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=ggem&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2017082000&fh=186&r=conus&dpdt=

GFS at this time:

Thttp://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gfs&p=sfcwind_mslp&rh=2017082006&fh=180&r=conus&dpd

 

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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Agreed 7/23 (very much like 2013) a switch went off in the atmosphere and any push of heat or ridging into the NE struggled.

It's interesting that more than half the Septembers from 2000 to 2011 didn't reach 90 degrees at Newark. But we have seen a fairly high number of 90 degree days during September since then. If the weeklies are correct about the late August into September pattern, then there is a chance this could be the first year since 2011. We'll see...

 

5999a4eba9abc_Screenshot2017-08-19at6_10_31PM.png.7852c5a91d07a7a1d7391f04bc485dff.png

 

 

 

 

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13 minutes ago, WEATHERBUFF said:

After Tuesday it will be cooler,so that's doubtful unless Monday and Tuesday are well above normal.

Well right now, to date we have a deficit of 13 degs. for the month (-0.7*19).    8 days at +3degs/day is a +24degs..  So basically normal by the 28th.   +(11/27)

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Unless there's a freak heat ridge the first week of September then it's very likely that Tuesday will be the last 90F day of the year if we even reach it that is (forecast is right around 90)

It would be nice if this pattern could somehow continue into fall and winter.

Maybe it will, the last two falls/winters have been torches, it's about time we had some kind of balance even if we still end up averaging just AN.

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21 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Through the first 2/3 of Aug (polar opposite of 2016)

 

Looks AN Mon - Wed then below Normal 8/24 - 8/28

 

JFK: +0.1
LGA: -0.6
PHL: -0.7
TTN: -0.7
NYC: -0.7
EWR: -1.4

Also the polar opposite of the winter. Notice how the PAC NW completely changed from a deep winter trough to a summer ridge.

 

DJF 16-17

DJF.jpg.32b859cff8a61eaa4dfc6d3531e26b7b.jpg

 

JJA 2017

JJA.jpg.fd0cf99e3611239b503a6033cc3833a1.jpg

 

 

 

 

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12 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Could be some isolated thunderstorms this afternoon into the early morning hours. The meso models have it. SPC has us in the risk box for thunderstorms with a marginal risk over E PA.

RGEM likes PA.   Looks fairly dry for the rest of us.  Was hoping for some storms tomorrow as the heat breaks....

rgem_apcpn_neus_16.png

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2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

RGEM likes PA.   Looks fairly dry for the rest of us.  Was hoping for some storms tomorrow as the heat breaks....

rgem_apcpn_neus_16.png

Yeah I think the dry slot is overdone. The main threat is definitely West of us but the threat for isolated convection exists. 

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