Isotherm Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: It's a pretty typical late Summer pattern. I'm over 4" of rain here locally just in August after a wet July. I'm actually running about average for the Summer so far. The rest of the state is running average to above average year to date. First map is skewed by the very wet May. I had over 8". But meteorological summer has been dry locally in CNJ, with about 6.8" here since June 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 Not in my part of central jersey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 27 minutes ago, Isotherm said: First map is skewed by the very wet May. I had over 8". But meteorological summer has been dry locally in CNJ, with about 6.8" here since June 1. Northwest of the TPK has been wet all Summer. We've over performed at least three times since July 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 there's a chance for a sneaky PRE like feature tonight. a few of the meso models show it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 23 minutes ago, forkyfork said: there's a chance for a sneaky PRE like feature tonight. a few of the meso models show it Yeah the 15z HRRR has widespread rain breaking out after midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 1 hour ago, forkyfork said: there's a chance for a sneaky PRE like feature tonight. a few of the meso models show it I am hoping we can finally break this streak of clouds and rain Mondays for the eclipse next Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 it's hard in the summertime to have clear skies when it's hot and humid...unless there is some dry air next week there will be at least some spotty showers in the eclipse zone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 EURO went from showing 2 tropical systems in 10 days from now, to just one in the Atlantic, GOM item is gone. The GFS has none at all now on day 10. Harvey where are you---or which are you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: EURO went from showing 2 tropical systems in 10 days from now, to just one in the Atlantic, GOM item is gone. The GFS has none at all now on day 10. Harvey where are you---or which are you? Both the Euro and the GFS had 99L dissipating for days, and it's currently on the verge of hurricane strength. The global models aren't always the be all, end all. The 12z EPS, although it keeps Harvey generally weak, maintains an organized system through the Caribbean and still develops the wave behind that one into a formidable cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 26 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Both the Euro and the GFS had 99L dissipating for days, and it's currently on the verge of hurricane strength. The global models aren't always the be all, end all. The 12z EPS, although it keeps Harvey generally weak, maintains an organized system through the Caribbean and still develops the wave behind that one into a formidable cane. Still much weaker than some of the solutions we saw about a week to 10 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 32 minutes ago, bluewave said: Still much weaker than some of the solutions we saw about a week to 10 days ago. Very true but it looks like it has a shot at some RI tonight. It's over super warm water and now that it has a solid core it should fight off the mod shear. I wouldn't count out a major. Plus it's in that subtropic zone where we have been seeing the bulk of our strongest storms the last few years. It's also fairly close to the east coast and in a prime spot historically for a large swell impacting our area. There should be large dangerous waves on Wednesday at area beaches with the potential for washovers. If anyone's interested in coastal impacts head to the beach Wednesday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 15 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Very true but it looks like it has a shot at some RI tonight. It's over super warm water and now that it has a solid core it should fight off the mod shear. I wouldn't count out a major. Plus it's in that subtropic zone where we have been seeing the bulk of our strongest storms the last few years. It's also fairly close to the east coast and in a prime spot historically for a large swell impacting our area. There should be large dangerous waves on Wednesday at area beaches with the potential for washovers. If anyone's interested in coastal impacts head to the beach Wednesday! It has been the case is recent years that the storms struggle when traveling through the tropics but get a second wind once they get north of the tropics. The stability is much closer to normal with less dry air compared to when it started out last week over the Tropical Atlantic. Long lived hurricanes from west of the Cape Verdes to near or along the East Coast have become a thing of the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: It has been the case is recent years that the storms struggle when traveling through the tropics but get a second wind once they get north of the tropics. The stability is much closer to normal with less dry air compared to when it started out last week over the Tropical Atlantic. Long lived hurricanes from just west of the Cape Verdes to near or along the East Coast have become a thing of the past. Absolutely, the surprising thing, with development waiting till later on is that we are still in the major drought. I would think there would be more of a shot at landfalls with later rather then earlier development. Probably pure luck which is bound to end at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 Just now, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Absolutely, the surprising thing, with development waiting till later on is that we are still in the major drought. I would think there would be more of a shot at landfalls with later rather then earlier development. Probably pure luck which is bound to end at some point. Many of these storms that develop late have already began to recurve OTS like Gert is doing now. So they look great on satellite and kick up the surf but are no threat to our area.The other interesting stat since Sandy in 2012 has been the strongest hurricanes of the season waiting until October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 The 18z GFS is now back on board with developing 91L into Harvey. It has a weak solution overall, but it's a distinct entity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 58 minutes ago, bluewave said: Still much weaker than some of the solutions we saw about a week to 10 days ago. You can't take a 240hr intensity forecast seriously. The global models are really useless with regards to intensity beyond a few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 9 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: You can't take a 240hr intensity forecast seriously. The global models are really useless with regards to intensity beyond a few days. No kidding. Just pointing out how the models underestimated the dry air and subsidence along the track of the storm so the development was much delayed until recurving OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 14, 2017 Share Posted August 14, 2017 45 minutes ago, bluewave said: No kidding. Just pointing out how the models underestimated the dry air and subsidence along the track of the storm so the development was much delayed until recurving OTS. My point is that the GFS and ECMWF have been so awful lately that I'm basing my optimistic reasoning on the next three weeks on pattern recognition. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Very true but it looks like it has a shot at some RI tonight. It's over super warm water and now that it has a solid core it should fight off the mod shear. I wouldn't count out a major. Plus it's in that subtropic zone where we have been seeing the bulk of our strongest storms the last few years. It's also fairly close to the east coast and in a prime spot historically for a large swell impacting our area. There should be large dangerous waves on Wednesday at area beaches with the potential for washovers. If anyone's interested in coastal impacts head to the beach Wednesday! ...you know i'll be there..Pikes Beach in Westhampton Dunes..going to sit back by the dunes just in case there are washovers..high tides along the south shore is around 3pm-ish..if you are @ jones beach on Wed. be ready for a busy day.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 30 minutes ago, tim said: ...you know i'll be there..Pikes Beach in Westhampton Dunes..going to sit back by the dunes just in case there are washovers..high tides along the south shore is around 3pm-ish..if you are @ jones beach on Wed. be ready for a busy day.. I'm not working that day I'll be down in the morning to surf low tide. My favorite beach event is hurricane wash overs at high tide. Unfortunately I'll be at my other job in the city for high. For those that haven't experienced a beach wash over its when long period high energy swell causes a surging almost tsunami like wave. It crosses the beach to the dunes. Very cool to witness as they often lead to some bizzar eriosinal paterns and you can play around in them as it's summer. Obviously they happen during nor'easters but they aren't as much fun. This is a pretty marginal setup for washovers. The stronger Gert gets the bigger and longer period the waves and the better chance it happens. Generally you want to see a cat 3 or higher within 750 miles or Cat one within 300 miles for it to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 Talk about awful the NAM's and the HRRR had the current rain in SEPA off to my northwest, so instead of getting missed that way it's gone to the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 Early forecast for the eclipse is pretty good weather for our area, even though coverage will only be around 70% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 On 8/13/2017 at 11:32 AM, bluewave said: This is turning out to be one of the least extreme summers in terms of heat and storms that we have seen this decade so far. While 2014 was cooler, it had more significant storms with Hurricane Arthur impacting NC July 3-4 and the thousand year deluge at Islip in August. Even the record cool 2009 was more active. It had the very heavy rainfall pattern with the 10" June, 7" July, and the August microburst that leveled all those trees in Central Park. Well the foliage growth I've seen has been pretty extreme, and so have the bugs lol. I saw about a dozen dragonflies around my backyard pond yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 On 8/13/2017 at 7:00 AM, nzucker said: Not good on the 6z. The tropical system is already near the Bahamas/Florida by 8/20, and there is widespread cloud cover and rain ahead of it, sort of like a PRE. Almost all of the Southeast from FL to the Carolinas and TN has rain showers, so the eclipse viewing would be limited. And you are right about Chile, beautiful country. I studied in Valdivia in 2009 and traveled all around the south. I particularly liked Conguillo National Park and Vincente Perez Rosales National Park in the Lakes/Araucaria region. Rosales gives you an excellent view of the perenially snow-covered Monte Tronador (11,453') on the Argentine border. Other places I enjoyed were the Bellavista neighborhood of Santiago, Valparaiso and seeing Pablo Neruda's house, and the Three Rivers landscape around Valdivia...the Coastal Range is underappreciated because everyone thinks of the Andes', but they were all snowcovered too and I saw a sunset near Santiago with both ranges having light reflected off the snow. Chiloe was great too, sheep farms and old churches painted wacky colors and a verdant green landscape of rolling hills. Hm, I wonder what kind of impact 91L will have on our area? Nate, did you get to climb up to the observatories and see the stars there? Viewing in Chile is excellent and you get to see stars and clusters there you never see in North America. Did you get to see any Condors? Wow Chiloe looks like a pastoral! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 On 8/13/2017 at 11:32 AM, bluewave said: This is turning out to be one of the least extreme summers in terms of heat and storms that we have seen this decade so far. While 2014 was cooler, it had more significant storms with Hurricane Arthur impacting NC July 3-4 and the thousand year deluge at Islip in August. Even the record cool 2009 was more active. It had the very heavy rainfall pattern with the 10" June, 7" July, and the August microburst that leveled all those trees in Central Park. Luckily we have a meteor shower and solar eclipse to keep us busy lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 On 8/13/2017 at 2:11 PM, nzucker said: Yup...the heat potential keeps getting pushed back, a major signal that it may not happen. First it was after 8/10, then 8/15 (second half of August), now 8/20-8/25 with a tropical system/PRE perhaps dooming that. Mon/Tues/Wed do look marginal for 90F. NWS has 88F, 89F, 88F for the next three days here in the Bronx, so it's pretty certain EWR/TTN/PHL will get at least one 90-degree day. Unsure about NYC. Look for any kind of heat to come after that tropical threat. Recurving storms are usually good for a few days of hot/humid weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 On 8/13/2017 at 6:02 PM, bluewave said: No problem. Good to get the thread back on topic. Sorry, I missed it, what was it all about? If you don't want to put it here, feel free to send it to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 13 hours ago, forkyfork said: there's a chance for a sneaky PRE like feature tonight. a few of the meso models show it It's raining here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 Raining the last hour and a half, looks close to .40" - the real good rain chances bring traces and the scrapers bring the H2O Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 15, 2017 Share Posted August 15, 2017 46 degrees and sunny this morning. My view this morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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