August 2017 Observations & Discussion Thread

[bluewave]

11 minutes ago, JerseyWx said:

We've also seen this happen in the Winter, but it's been an exceptionally consistent pattern this Summer.  Things just seem to mellow out.

This is turning out to be one of the least extreme summers in terms of heat and storms that we have seen this decade so far. While 2014 was cooler, it had  more significant storms with Hurricane Arthur impacting NC July 3-4 and the thousand year deluge at Islip in August. Even the record cool 2009 was more active. It had the very heavy rainfall pattern with the 10" June, 7" July, and the August microburst that leveled all those trees in Central Park.

[JerseyWx]

 

13 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is turning out to be one of the least extreme summers in terms of heat and storms that we have seen this decade so far. While 2014 was cooler, it had  more significant storms with Hurricane Arthur impacting NC July 3-4 and the thousand year deluge at Islip in August. Even the record cool 2009 was more active. It had the very heavy rainfall pattern with the 10" June and the August microburst that leveled all those trees in Central Park.

Luckily I've been doing somewhat decent in terms of storms.  Now, I haven't had much severe, but there have been a lot of events with very heavy rain being the main story.  Otherwise, it has been a pretty calm summer like you said, and besides that period back in June, there hasn't been any extreme heat.  

[Rtd208]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This is turning out to be one of the least extreme summers in terms of heat and storms that we have seen this decade so far. While 2014 was cooler, it had  more significant storms with Hurricane Arthur impacting NC July 3-4 and the thousand year deluge at Islip in August. Even the record cool 2009 was more active. It had the very heavy rainfall pattern with the 10" June, 7" July, and the August microburst that leveled all those trees in Central Park.

Because we all can't tell the frustration is getting to you lol. I am there myself with this rather boring pattern we are in, the worst part is that the active weather events are so close to our area either just to our north, south or west and that is what really gets to me. Places like S NJ have gotten hammered with heavy rain/severe storms this summer and that is about as close as you can get for most of us. Hope this all changes soon or it is going to be a long and frustrating fall/winter.

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Because we all can't tell the frustration is getting to you lol. I am there myself with this rather boring pattern we are in, the worst part is that the active weather events are so close to our area either just to our north, south or west and that is what really gets to me. Places like S NJ have gotten hammered with heavy rain/severe storms this summer and that is about as close as you can get for most of us. Hope this all changes soon or it is going to be a long and frustrating fall/winter.

The only thing about this summer that is annoying here on Long Island is how dry it has been. But in an era defined by extreme storms and heat, this summer is a bit of an anomaly. 

[Rtd208]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The only thing about this summer that is annoying here on Long Island is how dry it has been. But in an era defined by extreme storms and heat, this summer is a bit of an anomaly. 

I am pretty sure there will be some significant/major weather event at some point (hopefully soon) that will break this boring streak of weather that we have been in not only for the spring/summer months so far but for over a year now with the exception of a few events here and there. Even the storms/blizzards we had in our area back in March did not quite live up to expectation in the NYC metro area.

[Rtd208]

Well from the talk I am seeing on the forums and what some of the models are showing things "potentially" could be heating up in the tropics. Larry Cosgrove also seemed pretty bullish in his newsletter on the tropics heating up as well over the next couple of weeks along with possible late month heat.

[uncle W]

August average temperature for Newark N.J...taken from the local climate data...the 1981-2010 average temp for August in Newark is 76.4...NOAA has the 1981-2010 normal at 75.8...-0.6 lower than the actual average...

year.....ave temp.....max.....90+ days...

2016........79.9..........98........13

2015........78.7..........97........13

2014........74.5..........93..........2

2013........74.7..........91..........3

2012........77.6..........95..........7

2011........76.9..........98..........4......77.05 ave temp.....95.33 ave max.....7.0 ave 90 days...

.........................................................................................................................................

2010........77.7..........98........11

2009........77.3..........95........10

2008........74.1..........91..........2

2007........75.3..........95..........7

2006........77.3........101..........9

2005........80.4........102........12

2004........74.6..........92..........2

2003........77.6..........93..........7

2002........77.9........100........14

2001........79.1........105..........8.....77.13 ave temp.....97.02 ave max.....8.2 ave 90 days...

.......................................................................................................................................

2000........73.3..........92..........2

1999........76.2..........99..........7

1998........77.0..........93..........7

1997........73.6..........97..........3

1996........74.0..........92..........1

1995........78.5..........98........14

1994........75.7..........95..........9

1993........79.2........100........11

1992........75.1..........95..........4

1991........77.7..........96........12.....76.03 ave temp.....95.7 ave max.....7.0 ave 90 days...

...................................................................................................................................

1990........76.6..........93..........9

1989........76.3..........97..........8

1988........79.8..........99........17

1987........75.3..........97..........8

1986........74.2..........90..........2

1985........75.6..........97..........4

1984........77.3..........93..........8

1983........77.6..........97........11

1982........72.5..........90..........1

1981........75.1..........90..........3.....76.03 ave temp.....94.3 ave max.....7.1 ave 90 days...

............................................................................................................................................

1980........78.6..........95........12

.........................................................

1981-

2010........76.4........95.7........7.4

2011-

2016........77.1........95.3........7.0

 

[Hoth]

50 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Well from the talk I am seeing on the forums and what some of the models are showing things "potentially" could be heating up in the tropics. Larry Cosgrove also seemed pretty bullish in his newsletter on the tropics heating up as well over the next couple of weeks along with possible late month heat.

Tippy has a great writeup on the tropics in the NE forum. Well worth the read.

[nzucker]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Same old story this summer. The closer we get, the less impressive the heat, thunderstorm, heavy rain, and  tropical potential turns out to be. With the late August average of 83/67, above normal isn't that impressive.

Yup...the heat potential keeps getting pushed back, a major signal that it may not happen. First it was after 8/10, then 8/15 (second half of August), now 8/20-8/25 with a tropical system/PRE perhaps dooming that. 

Mon/Tues/Wed do look marginal for 90F. NWS has 88F, 89F, 88F for the next three days here in the Bronx, so it's pretty certain EWR/TTN/PHL will get at least one 90-degree day. Unsure about NYC.

[Cfa]

87 here. Warmer than I was expecting, no complaints from me.

[Sundog]

Unclew, can you explain what you mean by the numbers being different than the actual average? How do you arrive to the real average and why does it differ from the reported average?

[uncle W]

8 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Unclew, can you explain what you mean by the numbers being different than the actual average? How do you arrive to the real average and why does it differ from the reported average?

I posted the actual August average temperature for Newark from 1980...the 1981-2010 average is 76.4 if my work is correct...noaa has 75.8 as the normal for the same period...

https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/Almanacs/EWR/ewraug.pdf

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Unclew, can you explain what you mean by the numbers being different than the actual average? How do you arrive to the real average and why does it differ from the reported average?

NOAA corrects the raw data when coming up with the 30 year means. 

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/data-access/land-based-station-data/land-based-datasets/climate-normals/1981-2010-normals-data

In the strictest sense, a "normal" of a particular variable (e.g., temperature) is defined as the 30-year average. For example, the minimum temperature normal in January for a station in Chicago, Illinois, would be computed by taking the average of the 30 January values of monthly averaged minimum temperatures from 1981 to 2010. Each of the 30 monthly values was in turn derived from averaging the daily observations of minimum temperature for the station. In practice, however, much more goes into NCEI's Climate Normals product than simple 30-year averages. Procedures are put in place to deal with missing and suspect data values. In addition, Climate Normals include quantities other than averages such as degree days, probabilities, standard deviations, etc. Climate Normals are a large suite of data products that provide users with many tools to understand typical climate conditions for thousands of locations across the United States.

 

[uncle W]

18 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Unclew, can you explain what you mean by the numbers being different than the actual average? How do you arrive to the real average and why does it differ from the reported average?

the problem I have with noaa smoothing the numbers is that we compare the actual numbers to the smoothed numbers...it's like apples and oranges...if there was an error with the local climate data why wasn't it corrected?...The monthly average temperature should be compared with the actual monthly average temperature from past years...

[psv88]

84 here today, warmer on the south shore, 85 at ISP and the other south shore sites, JFK 86

[BxEngine]

Sorry to have to delete your stuff bluewave, thank you for responding appropriately though, but im deleting any of that nonsense that you had quoted. 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Sorry to have to delete your stuff bluewave, thank you for responding appropriately though, but im deleting any of that nonsense that you had quoted. 

No problem. Good to get the thread back on topic.

[SACRUS]

Today's Highs:

 

8/13:

JFK: 87
ACY: 87
ISP: 86
TEB: 85
EWR: 85
LGA: 85
PHL: 84
New Brunswick: 84
TTN: 84
NYC: 83

[SACRUS]

6 hours ago, nzucker said:

Yup...the heat potential keeps getting pushed back, a major signal that it may not happen. First it was after 8/10, then 8/15 (second half of August), now 8/20-8/25 with a tropical system/PRE perhaps dooming that. 

Mon/Tues/Wed do look marginal for 90F. NWS has 88F, 89F, 88F for the next three days here in the Bronx, so it's pretty certain EWR/TTN/PHL will get at least one 90-degree day. Unsure about NYC.

Wed/Thu look like the hottest days.  Warmth has been centered on these days for a while.  THe 7/23 - 8/13 period feature limited heat and not much potential on guidance outside a day or two, nothing really pushed back.  Last 12 days of Aug looks warm-hot with only tropics or hung up fronts getting in the way of a likely developing ridge over the region.

[Isotherm]

82.5F here, beautiful day.

[mattinpa]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

Wed/Thu look like the hottest days.  Warmth has been centered on these days for a while.  THe 7/23 - 8/13 period feature limited heat and not much potential on guidance outside a day or two, nothing really pushed back.  Last 12 days of Aug looks warm-hot with only tropics or hung up fronts getting in the way of a likely developing ridge over the region.

Yes there is potential for some late month heat, but a lot of clouds and storminess could limit that. Also averages are getting lower. Do you think maybe a couple 90s or near 90s here and there are most likely? Seems to be the trend. I doubt that heat is completely over.

[nzucker]

4 hours ago, mattinpa said:

Yes there is potential for some late month heat, but a lot of clouds and storminess could limit that. Also averages are getting lower. Do you think maybe a couple 90s or near 90s here and there are most likely? Seems to be the trend. I doubt that heat is completely over.

I think we definitely see a few days of 90F. Even if a tropical system does approach from the southeast, it has a lot of ridging ahead of it. The mean ridge looks to stay to our north which invites E/SE flow...could mean plenty more 90s for EWR/TTN/PHL while Long Is only has a couple left. 

This week trended a little warmer on guidance, more in line with what we were expecting. Though today's forecast was originally for a high of 86F in the Bronx and we only managed 83-84F in NYC. And to me temps 83-88F isn't really "heat"...that's pretty much the normal "dog days of summer." Record highs are still near 100F.

[mattinpa]

1 hour ago, nzucker said:

I think we definitely see a few days of 90F. Even if a tropical system does approach from the southeast, it has a lot of ridging ahead of it. The mean ridge looks to stay to our north which invites E/SE flow...could mean plenty more 90s for EWR/TTN/PHL while Long Is only has a couple left. 

This week trended a little warmer on guidance, more in line with what we were expecting. Though today's forecast was originally for a high of 86F in the Bronx and we only managed 83-84F in NYC. And to me temps 83-88F isn't really "heat"...that's pretty much the normal "dog days of summer." Record highs are still near 100F.

I don't know about plenty. Haven't we seen these ridges break down all summer? Plus, we'd be at the end of August. That time has been hot recently, however, so something to watch.

[nzucker]

2 hours ago, mattinpa said:

I don't know about plenty. Haven't we seen these ridges break down all summer? Plus, we'd be at the end of August. That time has been hot recently, however, so something to watch.

End of August was hot in 2010 and 2016. September was hot in 2015 and 2013. 

By plenty I mean EWR sees maybe 5-10 90F...KNYC maybe 4-6 more 90-degree days. EWR won't catch up to their 2010s average of 33 days of 90+. That ship sailed...this week's potential is limited to Wednesday and maybe Thursday in a few spots. That takes you out to 8/21. NYC has nor recorded a 90F reading after 9/15 in the 2013-2016 period. No 90s have been recorded in October since the 1940s...

[Morris]

Mid-60s and sunny in Saas-Fee, Switzerland in the middle of the day, with snow-covered mountains all around me. I think I'm staying here.

[bluewave]

Not much in the rainfall department next week to 10 days with only scattered convection on frontal passage days. No organized storms as one tropical system tracks near the Caribbean/Islands and another recurves into the Central Atlantic on the 0z Euro. So LI drought conditions may have to wait until the fall for some relief.

[mattinpa]

1 hour ago, nzucker said:

End of August was hot in 2010 and 2016. September was hot in 2015 and 2013. 

By plenty I mean EWR sees maybe 5-10 90F...KNYC maybe 4-6 more 90-degree days. EWR won't catch up to their 2010s average of 33 days of 90+. That ship sailed...this week's potential is limited to Wednesday and maybe Thursday in a few spots. That takes you out to 8/21. NYC has nor recorded a 90F reading after 9/15 in the 2013-2016 period. No 90s have been recorded in October since the 1940s...

I could see that, though maybe I would lean more towards 5 in PHL/EWR if the OP GFS is right about the ridge being broken down again at the end of its run. Yes I remembered the late season heat in both 2015 and 2016.

[NJwx85]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Not much in the rainfall department next week to 10 days with only scattered convection on frontal passage days. No organized storms as one tropical system tracks near the Caribbean/Islands and another recurves into the Central Atlantic on the 0z Euro. So LI drought conditions may have to wait until the fall for some relief.

It's a pretty typical late Summer pattern.

I'm over 4" of rain here locally just in August after a wet July.

I'm actually running about average for the Summer so far.

The rest of the state is running average to above average year to date.

[bluewave]

42 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

It's a pretty typical late Summer pattern.

I'm over 4" of rain here locally just in August after a wet July.

I'm actually running about average for the Summer so far.

 

The rest of the state is running average to above average year to date.

 

More than 3" below normal here and still in the top 10 driest summers since the early 60's. Hopefully, we can put some tropical connection together here beyond the range of the current forecast ensembles. It's been a while since we got a decent tropical system here in August with Irene back in 2011.  I guess this is payback for all the 2010's winters where Long Island beat out the interior for snowfall.

[gravitylover]

I could do without another Irene, I don't need any more trees down on my house.