NJwx85 Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 It's about time we're back up... In any event 99L is up to a 2 day 30% and 5 day 50%. The satellite continues to slowly improve and you can see signs of a closed circulation trying to form under the deepest convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 3 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: I feel like we are in a doughnut hole when it comes to heavier precipitation events, hope this doesn't go on for much longer. The latest EPS weeklies from yesterday are pretty dry for the rest of August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 The RGEM is fairly wet for the next two days however it does show a similar doughnut hold near the 78 corridor in NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 11, 2017 Author Share Posted August 11, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: The latest EPS weeklies from yesterday are pretty dry for the rest of August. What a shock. Then again the Euro has been less then stellar lately but the EPS is usually pretty good. Well if it is going to be dry and boring it might as well be now and then let things start to hopefully ramp up as well head into September and the fall/winter months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 I have no idea why you are complaining about missing heavy rain events when most are well abovenormal and it has rained 9 straight weekends. Its bizarre your reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 4 minutes ago, bluewave said: The latest EPS weeklies from yesterday are pretty dry for the rest of August. Convection is very hard to predict so without any large scale systems or tropical threats I wouldn't expect an ensemble mean to be wet in August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 Just now, winterwarlock said: I have no idea why you are complaining about missing heavy rain events when most are well abovenormal and it has rained 9 straight weekends. Its bizarre your reality Out of everyone in this entire region you have the best shot at heavy rain this weekend. Cheers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 36 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: What a shock. Then again the Euro has been less then stellar lately but the EPS is usually pretty good. Well if it is going to be dry and boring it might as well be now and then let things start to hopefully ramp up as well head into September and the fall/winter months. So far ISP is the 7th driest summer on record. Long Island would probably see more extensive drought if it wasn't s cool with numerous cloudy days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 15 minutes ago, bluewave said: So far ISP is the 7th driest summer on record. Long Island would probably see more extensive drought if it wasn't s cool with numerous cloudy days. 11.60" rain here since June 1st vs. 6.10" at ISP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 NAM and HRRR showing a big sucker hole for tonight's rains Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 55 minutes ago, winterwarlock said: I have no idea why you are complaining about missing heavy rain events when most are well abovenormal and it has rained 9 straight weekends. Its bizarre your reality I'm happy if it busts on a weekend. However even the weekday events have busted hard of late. Predictions of 2-3 inches and we get .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 1 hour ago, doncat said: 11.60" rain here since June 1st vs. 6.10" at ISP. The last summer that wasn't dry out on Long Island was 2014 with the 1000 year rain at ISP. It was easy for ISP to beat EWR with 18.82" to 11.27". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 Models were really far off on the placement of rains tonight. Incoming... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 11, 2017 Share Posted August 11, 2017 2 hours ago, doncat said: 11.60" rain here since June 1st vs. 6.10" at ISP. It was also a function of pure luck with convection progression. I'm at 6.67" for meteorological summer thus far, very dry. Central NJ has been getting the short end of the stick for T-storms. Still running a positive precipitation departure long term / for 2017 due to the very wet spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 4 hours ago, winterwarlock said: I have no idea why you are complaining about missing heavy rain events when most are well abovenormal and it has rained 9 straight weekends. Its bizarre your reality As others have stated Long Island is experiencing another summer drought. Its pretty frustrating when your a big garnder and landscape designer like myself. And based on the current radar trends we miss another big rain event to the north and south again. I doubt wantagh sees much more then .25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 I'm just south of those storms. 10 miles north on 206 and Byram Township looks like it's got between 1-2" so far. Friends at the Sussex county fair said it's pouring up in Augusta. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 0.15" at home so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 0.54" so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 it looks like that precip hole might be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 Trace, missed north and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 0.85 of rain so far today. nice batch pushing through at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Irishmick9 Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 1.16 so far in Vernon..large batch incoming. Overperformer for once up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 0.17" so far with heavy rain moving in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 0.83" w/ plenty to come. Much needed rainfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 NNJ and SNY are getting rocked. A few downpours here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 Probably going to be an overperformer for the tri-state in terms of rainfall. The NYC doughnut hole was a bit overdone by guidance. Next week looks fairly dry..NWS going sunny with low to mid 80s for highs and mid 60s for lows...near average for mid August. Looks as if we are going to end the summer with three months very near the average temperature mark, not a ton of variation in the pattern this summer with a few rainy/cool/cloudy days then a couple days of sun and mid 80s. Been pretty much the theme since the June 11-13 heat wave ended. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nesussxwx Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 1.03" so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 1.16" so far.. Pouring at the moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 12, 2017 Share Posted August 12, 2017 Off and on downpours here. Looks like some more rain developing in CNJ so maybe LI can get a decent drink tonight as NW areas get crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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