RedSky Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 GFS goes the other way and is mostly dry for the 5 day, nice little model divergence here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 12 hours ago, WEATHERBUFF said: Yes in relation to average the coast has done better. 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 were above average in snow but nothing compared to 92-93,93-94 and 95-96 all which had well over 100 inches. 2016-2017 was at least as good as 2013-2014 snowfall wise but the temps were above average. Those 3 winters in the 1990's were all quite cold,especially 93-94 and 95-96. 14-15 had a good period of snow pack with the cold February and fairly cold March. 93-94 was amazing though...still have pics of the 3' plus snowpack in March. It got incredibly deep in Lake Como, PA, which is at 1600'. Can hardly imagine what it was like in the higher elevations near Mt. Ararat/Orson where it goes from 2000'-2600'...probably at least a 4 foot pack. The temperatures were brutal too, January I think hit -20F a few times in the colder radiating spots like our lake-filled valley. Stayed cold right through March, and a lot of locales held snowpack well into April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 Another beautiful morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 Too bad we haven't had a pattern like this during the winter in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Morris said: Another beautiful morning. Really unusual for JFK to be reporting "smoke" right now, visibility is 6 miles though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 6 hours ago, nzucker said: 14-15 had a good period of snow pack with the cold February and fairly cold March. 93-94 was amazing though...still have pics of the 3' plus snowpack in March. It got incredibly deep in Lake Como, PA, which is at 1600'. Can hardly imagine what it was like in the higher elevations near Mt. Ararat/Orson where it goes from 2000'-2600'...probably at least a 4 foot pack. The temperatures were brutal too, January I think hit -20F a few times in the colder radiating spots like our lake-filled valley. Stayed cold right through March, and a lot of locales held snowpack well into April. I can tell you lol. Both March 1993 and winter 93-94 put down nearly 10 ft drifts near my house which is in the mtns west of Jim Thorpe (further south than you and closer to Allentown, but the elevation is like 2,200 ft- same as Albrightsville, averages about 70 inches of snow a year, like Mt. Pocono.) We even had about a foot and a half of snow in the Jan 2016 storm, while back home in Nassau County we had about 32 inches. Allentown, one county to my south had a similar amt of snow. I don't think Mt. Pocono got anything out of that storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 19 minutes ago, Paragon said: Really unusual for JFK to be reporting "smoke" right now, visibility is 6 miles though From PA. Smoke is being reported throughout NYC due to an upstream fire in PA. Depending on the status of the fire, the afternoon haze forecast may need to be adjusted to include haze/smoke aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: From PA. Smoke is being reported throughout NYC due to an upstream fire in PA. Depending on the status of the fire, the afternoon haze forecast may need to be adjusted to include haze/smoke aloft. Thanks, Chris- the sky does look "milky"- is the fire in NE PA? or further west/south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, Paragon said: Thanks, Chris- the sky does look "milky"- is the fire in NE PA? or further west/south? There is a funky smell outside right now from whatever was burning in that scrap yard. http://6abc.com/firefighters-battle-stubborn-blaze-in-scrap-yard/2292121/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 Just now, bluewave said: There is a funky smell outside right now from whatever was burning in that scrap yard. http://6abc.com/firefighters-battle-stubborn-blaze-in-scrap-yard/2292121/ lol it's PA, who knows what they were burning there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, Paragon said: lol it's PA, who knows what they were burning there! Hopefully, breaking the inversion along with the seabreeze will clear things out later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 Kinda humid this morning. 73 and sunny Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Hopefully, breaking the inversion and the seabreeze will clear things out later. On the plus side, this kind of particulate pollution can result in some brilliant sunsets. Remember when we had a similar thing a few years ago with the fires in Alberta, Canada (sadly, I think an entire city burned down in that fire.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 5 minutes ago, Paragon said: On the plus side, this kind of particulate pollution can result in some brilliant sunsets. Remember when we had a similar thing a few years ago with the fires in Alberta, Canada (sadly, I think an entire city burned down in that fire.) Yeah I remember that. Be interesting to see if July 21-22 can stand as the last 90 of this year for JFK and ISP or we can sneak another in before the season ends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: Yeah I remember that. Be interesting to see if July 21-22 can stand as the last 90 of this year for JFK and ISP or we can sneak another in before the season ends? Going on prior experience I think we'll have more. I'd say sometime in the third week of August and might even sneak a couple in September. JFK should get to 10 and NYC to 15 before the season ends. My prediction is for LGA to get to 20, NYC to 15 and for JFK and ISP to reach 10. A solidly average summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 99L on life support. Most models dissipate it now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, Paragon said: Going on prior experience I think we'll have more. I'd say sometime in the third week of August and might even sneak a couple in September. JFK should get to 10 and NYC to 15 before the season ends. We'll see if JFK can have a 2013 and 2004 finish with no 90's after July. ISP has done it more often during the 2000's than JFK. 2000's summers with no 90's after July: JFK...2013...2004 ISP...2014...2013...2012...2004...2003...2000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 Next 8 days about +1 to +2degs. (avg=75). I bet no tropical action here till the 8/26 to 9/05 period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 99L on life support. Most models dissipate it now. No surprises there. Hard to believe that there has been only one major hurricane day in the Tropical Atlantic since 2010. That must be a new record for lack of major hurricane activity out in that region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 1 minute ago, bluewave said: No surprises there. Hard to believe that there has been only one major hurricane day in the Tropical Atlantic since 2010. That must be a new record for lack of major hurricane activity out in that region. We just had our first hurricane in the Atlantic. Could be a season where you see above average tropical storms and below average hurricanes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 Why did they increase total number of storms? The ACE so far is a puny 7 units. Where do they expect this figure to end up? They are trying to impress the public with the total number of tropical systems---since the public knows little about ACE. 7 ACE units is generated by a major hurricane in a single 24hr. period, or one minimal hurricane in 3 days, I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 52 minutes ago, bluewave said: There is a funky smell outside right now from whatever was burning in that scrap yard. http://6abc.com/firefighters-battle-stubborn-blaze-in-scrap-yard/2292121/ I also smell it out here 25 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 99L on life support. Most models dissipate it now. Hopefully the tropics ramp up just like what Noaa is predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 23 minutes ago, Paragon said: We just had our first hurricane in the Atlantic. Could be a season where you see above average tropical storms and below average hurricanes. Remarkable run since 2012 with the biggest hurricanes of the season waiting until October. Be interesting to see if late August and September can become more active this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paragon Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Remarkable run since 2012 with the biggest hurricanes of the season waiting until October. A consequence of the AMO going negative perhaps? Might be a return to the 80s, except wetter. Could mean less tropical activity but more chances to record negative temps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 27 minutes ago, bluewave said: No surprises there. Hard to believe that there has been only one major hurricane day in the Tropical Atlantic since 2010. That must be a new record for lack of major hurricane activity out in that region. Which hurricane are you referring to as the only major? Sandy briefly touched category 3 prior to landfall in Cuba. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 46 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 99L on life support. Most models dissipate it now. It continues to produce deep convection near the center. In fact another flare up is commencing as I type this. Shear is lessening and the system is entering a moister environment. Really all signs point towards conditions favorable for development, and the NHC still gives it a 5 day 40% chance. Edit: It looks like shear has actually increased just a tad to the Northeast of the center, but it still should be light enough to overcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 28 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Which hurricane are you referring to as the only major? Sandy briefly touched category 3 prior to landfall in Cuba. The Tropical Atlantic is east of 60W and south of 20N east of the islands. The only major out there since 2010 was Danny. It only made it to 100Kt for 6 hrs. Everything passing through that zone has struggled since 2012 like 99L just did. Sandy formed in the Western Caribbean so it didn't have a chance to pass through that area and weaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Paragon said: Going on prior experience I think we'll have more. I'd say sometime in the third week of August and might even sneak a couple in September. JFK should get to 10 and NYC to 15 before the season ends. My prediction is for LGA to get to 20, NYC to 15 and for JFK and ISP to reach 10. A solidly average summer. I'm seeing more ridging on the models for 2nd half of August so I think you're right but then again we've seen false alarms for heat this summer before, so we'll have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 20 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I'm seeing more ridging on the models for 2nd half of August so I think you're right but then again we've seen false alarms for heat this summer before, so we'll have to wait and see. A warm period of 5-7 days would fit the summer pattern. I doubt we see anything big, like a bunch of 90 degree days in a row though.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 1 hour ago, Paragon said: A consequence of the AMO going negative perhaps? Might be a return to the 80s, except wetter. Could mean less tropical activity but more chances to record negative temps! The last 10 yrs have been solidly +AMO. Surprisingly little activity overall in that span especially the last 5 years....I would have thought we'd have more years like 04 and 05 in the mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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