Morris Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 21 hours ago, WEATHERBUFF said: The Poconos and endless mountains region have done quite well during that period. Our house in Lake Como, PA has not seen a really huge winter since 06-07. 09-10 and 13-14 were pretty good, but nothing like the historic couplet of 92-93/93-94. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 Low of 64 in the park and Newark. Only 68 in the LGA furnace. 50's pretty much everywhere off the UHI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 The Euro is still advertising a soaker for Monday. It's been very consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 11 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The Euro is still advertising a soaker for Monday. It's been very consistent. Hoping this next time is different since I need the rain. But the Euro recently has been too far north with the rains as the last event was supposed to be north of us for days in the long range and ended up south. Same story with the storm a week earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 24 minutes ago, bluewave said: Hoping this next time is different since I need the rain. But the Euro recently has been too far north with the rains as the last event was supposed to be north of us for days in the long range and ended up south. Same story with the storm a week earlier. FWIW the 06z GFS wasn't that much different than the Euro, it has the same players on the field, just keeps the pattern more suppressed. It probably has more to do with timing than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 This has been quite a Spring/Summer with all of the rain. I hope it continues to our winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: The Euro is still advertising a soaker for Monday. It's been very consistent. Fits the summer trend of rain on Mondays..... Looks like another SNJ/DE/MD special setting up IMO however, Euro's been too wet and too far north all summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 If 99L is going to do something, now seems to be the time. Shear is low and decreasing further to the Northeast of the lesser Antilles. Convection continues to blow up over the center so as the shear continues to go down, things might start consolidating. The 12z spaghetti models all show slow but steady strengthening throughout the period. Even though this system is fairly certain to re-curve well offshore it could get close enough to enhance the rain on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 that upper low to the NE of the system needs to go away.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 Pretty good chance of thunderstorms on Friday. The focus once again does look to be over Southern NJ but we should still get some decent activity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: Fits the summer trend of rain on Mondays..... Looks like another SNJ/DE/MD special setting up IMO however, Euro's been too wet and too far north all summer. Monday looks suppressed, I dont expect much rain maybe .25 to .50 at most Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 Fairly boring stretch coming up. However, great for outdoor activities, low humidity, warm temps and limited inclement weather.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 Just now, Brian5671 said: Fairly boring stretch coming up. However, great for outdoor activities, low humidity, warm temps and limited inclement weather.... It's mid August, this time of year is typically 85-90 and sunny everyday. At least we have storm chances to speak about. Other than that it's usually up to the tropics to give us something noteworthy. This weather is more typical of September, and I'm a little worried of a premature Autumn. The temperature hit the 50's here the last two nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: It's mid August, this time of year is typically 85-90 and sunny everyday. At least we have storm chances to speak about. Other than that it's usually up to the tropics to give us something noteworthy. This weather is more typical of September, and I'm a little worried of a premature Autumn. The temperature hit the 50's here the last two nights. I agree. We've had the AC off for days, it feels like 9/15. I don't really see much warmth coming up-most models are BN or at best average through the next 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: I agree. We've had the AC off for days, it feels like 9/15. I don't really see much warmth coming up-most models are BN or at best average through the next 15 days. The humidity is supposed to increase on Friday so we'll probably turn the AC back on then, but yes it's been cool and dry the past few days. BTW 99L is still a 5 day tangerine. And this "threat box" does look intriguing. FWIW both JB and Jim Cantore think 99L poses a threat to the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The humidity is supposed to increase on Friday so we'll probably turn the AC back on then, but yes it's been cool and dry the past few days. BTW 99L is still a 5 day tangerine. And this "threat box" does look intriguing. FWIW both JB and Jim Cantore think 99L poses a threat to the US. Shocker on JB. I think he's wrong through. I'm predicting this system remains weak and it re curves well east of the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 Just now, Brian5671 said: Shocker on JB. I think he's wrong through. I'm predicting this system remains weak and it re curves well east of the coast. The weaker it remains in the medium range the better chance it has of making it far enough West to impact the US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Pretty good chance of thunderstorms on Friday. The focus once again does look to be over Southern NJ but we should still get some decent activity. Mt. Holly doesn't seem too impressed at this point. They mention some scattered showers north of the frontal boundary, and then maybe a better chance Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 The one silver lining to the lack of rain this summer on Long Island has been all the cloudy and cool days. This has resulted in a slower development of drought relative to other years with so little summer rainfall. ISP is currently in the top 10 driest of summers. Long Island needs a good soaking to escape a top 20 driest summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHERBUFF Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 4 hours ago, nzucker said: Our house in Lake Como, PA has not seen a really huge winter since 06-07. 09-10 and 13-14 were pretty good, but nothing like the historic couplet of 92-93/93-94. Yes in relation to average the coast has done better. 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 were above average in snow but nothing compared to 92-93,93-94 and 95-96 all which had well over 100 inches. 2016-2017 was at least as good as 2013-2014 snowfall wise but the temps were above average. Those 3 winters in the 1990's were all quite cold,especially 93-94 and 95-96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 The 12z Euro shifted well North Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 5 hours ago, Brian5671 said: Shocker on JB. I think he's wrong through. I'm predicting this system remains weak and it re curves well east of the coast. I agree and disagree I think it actually becomes a decent hurricane but as you said recurves. The WAR had continuously been weaker then forecast in the long run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 85/64 in the park today. -2. And to the breaking news! Tomorrow, the average finally starts ticking down. 83/69 average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 9, 2017 Share Posted August 9, 2017 18 minutes ago, Morris said: 85/64 in the park today. -2. And to the breaking news! Tomorrow, the average finally starts ticking down. 83/69 average. sunsets ticking earlier, down to 7:59 here....dropping fast now....each day is 2 minutes shorter now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 9, 2017 Author Share Posted August 9, 2017 2 hours ago, NJwx85 said: The 12z Euro shifted well North I am hoping this will be correct but I am skeptical at this point considering the seasonal trend has been further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 2 hours ago, Brian5671 said: sunsets ticking earlier, down to 7:59 here....dropping fast now....each day is 2 minutes shorter now.... Thats what I hate most about the end of summer, losing daylight. 84/59 here today. Top 10 day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 8 hours ago, WEATHERBUFF said: Yes in relation to average the coast has done better. 2013-2014 and 2014-2015 were above average in snow but nothing compared to 92-93,93-94 and 95-96 all which had well over 100 inches. 2016-2017 was at least as good as 2013-2014 snowfall wise but the temps were above average. Those 3 winters in the 1990's were all quite cold,especially 93-94 and 95-96. When I was at PSU as an undergrad (2005-09), professors there and locals routinely brought up the early 1990s and behemoth storms that hit central PA, especially March 1993 and March 1994. Just about every winter that decade was at least decent for that area, and 92-93, 93-94 and 95-96 were monsters. Even 97-98 was good. The years I was there were quite dull by comparison, only one was close to average for snow. I don't think it's deniable that there's been a pronounced shift over the last 10-15 years or so to a more coastal-favored heavy snow pattern that is too suppressed for that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 10, 2017 Author Share Posted August 10, 2017 This is probably a fluke run of the NAM but the 00z is very wet for the weekend with amounts of 2.0"-3.0" for the area with more over C/S NJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 10, 2017 Share Posted August 10, 2017 12 minutes ago, Rtd208 said: This is probably a fluke run of the NAM but the 00z is very wet for the weekend with amounts of 2.0"-3.0" for the area with more over C/S NJ It's blowing up some huge convection, with PWAT's close to 2.5"+. Doubt that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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