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August 2017 Observations & Discussion Thread


Rtd208

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7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

I'm more interested in the fact that the Euro brings 99L close to the East coast while a stalled out front is overhead.

Watch the PRE it shows to the north rain itself out over SNJ instead of our area.;)

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7 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

it's been too high on QPF the whole summer for some reason.

I believe it's been convective feedback like with the 15" max it had south of LI last weekend. Lows have been verifying further south closer to the better convection and weaker WAR.

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1 hour ago, dWave said:

That's true, but its more than just the avgs but how we got there. Too many "cool" breaks in the summer heat to really give that steady summer feel. Seems like we get some short burst of hot to very hot days to run up the numbers then spend most of the time chipping away at that departure, remaining just mild enough to end up around average.  If we arrived at that same average with few fewer 90s but more uninterrupted run of sunny/mid 80s+ it would give a different impression.

I'm not saying this summer was the greatest, but it's a far cry from 2009, even 2014 felt cooler to me. But at this point, the average temp has fallen only a single degree from summer's peak. We're still in the "late January" of summer. :blink:

No one would declare winter dead at the end of January because of a few 60-70 degree days, but with temps and snowfall near average. Many refuse to let go of the fantasy range storms until they're physically impossible or there aren't any to track.

I'm just trying to be realistic, summer dead in early August? I don't think so, it's too soon to know how it'll end. Just like "spring" arrived in the second half of February, and then March happened.

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7 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I'm not saying this summer was the greatest, but it's a far cry from 2009, even 2014 felt cooler to me. But at this point, the average temp has fallen only a single degree from summer's peak. We're still in the "late January" of summer. :blink:

No one would declare winter dead at the end of January because of a few 60-70 degree days, but with temps and snowfall near average. Many refuse to let go of the fantasy range storms until they're physically impossible or there aren't any to track.

I'm just trying to be realistic, summer dead in early August? I don't think so, it's too soon to know how it'll end. Just like "spring" arrived in the second half of February, and then March happened.

A couple of things, there's been no long term heat this summer and the pattern going forward doesn't really support any big heat or long lasting heat....granted we could get hot at some point, but it's starting to get late.....

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24 minutes ago, Cfa said:

I'm not saying this summer was the greatest, but it's a far cry from 2009, even 2014 felt cooler to me. But at this point, the average temp has fallen only a single degree from summer's peak. We're still in the "late January" of summer. :blink:

No one would declare winter dead at the end of January because of a few 60-70 degree days, but with temps and snowfall near average. Many refuse to let go of the fantasy range storms until they're physically impossible or there aren't any to track.

I'm just trying to be realistic, summer dead in early August? I don't think so, it's too soon to know how it'll end. Just like "spring" arrived in the second half of February, and then March happened.

Yeah, 2009 was the last time that anyone saw a -3 summer monthly summer temperature departure around here. 2014 was closer to normal in the means but the 90 degree days were below normal as the maxes were muted.

It looks like there will be a long gap between the last 90 on August 1st and the next one.

 Newark, NJ
   SHWRS    PTCLDY   SUNNY    PTCLDY   PTCLDY   MOCLDY   MOCLDY
     /72    65/82    64/81    65/83    66/80    67/80    69/81
      /100  100/20    00/00    00/10    10/10    20/30    30/40
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20 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

A couple of things, there's been no long term heat this summer and the pattern going forward doesn't really support any big heat or long lasting heat....granted we could get hot at some point, but it's starting to get late.....

There hasn't been any long term cooler than normal air this summer either, it's been very average. Temps going forward look average to slightly below. Low to mid 80's with nights around 70 is hardly fall like.

Sustained 90+ heat would be nice, but like 12"+ storms in the winter, it's simply a bonus and can't always be expected, even if it happens more often than not.

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45 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, 2009 was the last time that anyone saw a -3 summer monthly summer temperature departure around here. 2014 was closer to normal in the means but the 90 degree days were below normal as the maxes were muted.

It looks like there will be a long gap between the last 90 on August 1st and the next one.


 Newark, NJ
   SHWRS    PTCLDY   SUNNY    PTCLDY   PTCLDY   MOCLDY   MOCLDY
     /72    65/82    64/81    65/83    66/80    67/80    69/81
      /100  100/20    00/00    00/10    10/10    20/30    30/40

Yeah, it's not nearly the same feel as 2009. This summer has been cloudier than 2014 iirc, but a bit more humid with occasional shots of real heat (though short lived).

It'll be interesting to see how long that streak lasts, hopefully not too long (for my sake lol).

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there hasn't been any temps as low as the 50's in NYC since June...we had many a record low during the summers growing up in the 1960's...between cool summers we got 1966...it had three heat waves that peaked over 100 degrees...August 1962-63-64-65 had very cool record lows...1964 broke a record set in 1963...the first half of August 1964 is one of the coolest on record...

aug 62 63 64 65.png

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23 minutes ago, Cfa said:

Yeah, it's not nearly the same feel as 2009. This summer has been cloudier than 2014 iirc, but a bit more humid with occasional shots of real heat (though short lived).

It'll be interesting to see how long that streak lasts, hopefully not too long (for my sake lol).

So far this summer has been among the tamest for a lack of major heat, severe, and major flooding events. At least 2009 had the big Central Park microburst in August. August 2014 featured the 1000 year rain event at ISP.

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2 hours ago, Cfa said:

There hasn't been any long term cooler than normal air this summer either, it's been very average. Temps going forward look average to slightly below. Low to mid 80's with nights around 70 is hardly fall like.

Sustained 90+ heat would be nice, but like 12"+ storms in the winter, it's simply a bonus and can't always be expected, even if it happens more often than not.

To be fair our actual normals are probably 1-2 degrees higher than the 30 yr average, so in that context, we would be below normal this summer.

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When not cloudy/rain temps near normal next 7 - 10 days but unsettled weather looks plentiful so overall below normal.  You could see how he warmth over the top ( Canada) could spread the last week of Aug/early sep but its still TBD. 

test8.gif

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What were the final NYC area rain totals compared to Upton's forecast valid 7am yesterday?  To me it looks like they were off well over 50 percent on average on a forecast issued while it was raining.  I know it's rain and the public doesn't care but this was a pretty terrible forecast...

FB_IMG_1502190685580.jpg

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