RedSky Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 15 minutes ago, JerseyWx said: It's funny though because I always thought they started earlier, like around the 2nd week of July. It seems in recent years their arrival got later. They started here in mid July on schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 6 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Summer is pretty much over. Look how cold it got. We're still going to have 80's and maybe a few 90's but fall is coming you can already feel the difference between august and July! Unless we see a major pattern change, summers back is likely broken. We're quickly losing daylight and our averages have started to decline. Our current pattern has definitely sped up this summer compared to the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Kinda weird seeing everyone declare summer over while we're still near the peak, with temps running about average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 38 minutes ago, RedSky said: They started here in mid July on schedule. It used to be that way here, but the last 3 years or so they have come in August. 41 minutes ago, WeatherFeen2000 said: Summer is pretty much over. Look how cold it got. We're still going to have 80's and maybe a few 90's but fall is coming you can already feel the difference between august and July! No doubt the pattern doesn't look to support any big time/extended heat as of right now, but I wouldn't be calling Summer over. That'd be like saying winter is basically done on February 6th lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 15 hours ago, JerseyWx said: Despite the sunny forecast, it's been cloudy all day. Currently only 72. ...bit of a bummer if you were on the beach..heard a lot of people complaining.."where's the sun?".."it was suppose to be sunny all day"..i agree all forecasts called for sunny skies and it was pretty much cloudy all day @ coopers beach in southampton..wouldn't have mine but ALL forecasts were calling for a beautiful day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 NAM and HRRR only have a half inch for the city, yet NWS is forecasting this: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Flash flood watch for central and ne NJ, NYC and LI. The Euro has shown heavy rain for the area for 3 straight runs and looks somewhat similar to the RGEM and GFS. The GGEM and the NAM hit eastern LI hard while leaving a lot of the area without much rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Just now, Rjay said: Flash flood watch for central and ne NJ, NYC and LI. The Euro has shown heavy rain for the area for 3 straight runs and looks somewhat similar to the RGEM and GFS. The GGEM and the BAN hit eastern LI hard while leaving a lot of the area without much rain. Yeah, the Euro jackpots the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 4 minutes ago, Morris said: NAM and HRRR only have a half inch for the city, yet NWS is forecasting this: The Euro shows this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 6z NAM a bit south, it will just come down to where that swath of heaviest rain sets up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 What is the timing of this? I fly back from DR this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Just now, dmillz25 said: What is the timing of this? I fly back from DR this afternoon heaviest late day/evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 3 hours ago, tim said: ...bit of a bummer if you were on the beach..heard a lot of people complaining.."where's the sun?".."it was suppose to be sunny all day"..i agree all forecasts called for sunny skies and it was pretty much cloudy all day @ coopers beach in southampton..wouldn't have mine but ALL forecasts were calling for a beautiful day. Love coopers. Great beach Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 1 hour ago, Brian5671 said: 6z NAM a bit south, it will just come down to where that swath of heaviest rain sets up Fits the seasonal trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Down to 66 in the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 11 hours ago, JerseyWx said: It's funny though because I always thought they started earlier, like around the 2nd week of July. It seems in recent years their arrival got later. Same here, they usually arrive early August. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 4 hours ago, tim said: ...bit of a bummer if you were on the beach..heard a lot of people complaining.."where's the sun?".."it was suppose to be sunny all day"..i agree all forecasts called for sunny skies and it was pretty much cloudy all day @ coopers beach in southampton..wouldn't have mine but ALL forecasts were calling for a beautiful day. Yeah, definitely not the best beach day yesterday. Caught a lot of people off guard like you mentioned. 21 minutes ago, Isotherm said: Same here, they usually arrive early August. Nothing like hearing them on a warm summer night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 Rare 2010's summer pattern when the perma-ridge north of Hawaii got replaced by a trough. First time since 2007 with a similar 500 mb pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 A lovely October day out there today 64/ Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 38 minutes ago, bluewave said: Rare 2010's summer pattern when the perma-ridge north of Hawaii got replaced by a trough. First time since 2007 with a similar 500 mb pattern. Things are stuck in a 00's-ish . WAR isnt trending west - Trough looks stuck in the MD/GL and as such more clouds/rain BN through 8/15 should rule. maybe we'll have a late August resurgence of warmth/heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 3 hours ago, Morris said: NAM and HRRR only have a half inch for the city, yet NWS is forecasting this: Kiss of death. Based on radar trends it's looking like the heaviest rain stays South again. Congrats central and south jersey. Always good to factor in the seasonal trends. I would be surprised if wantagh cracks .5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 1 hour ago, SACRUS said: Things are stuck in a 00's-ish . WAR isnt trending west - Trough looks stuck in the MD/GL and as such more clouds/rain BN through 8/15 should rule. maybe we'll have a late August resurgence of warmth/heat. Trough moves into the West on the ensembles during the second half of August. But the main ridge amplification is over SE Canada with lower pressures near the SE Coast. So it still doesn't look all that warm with the tendency for onshore flow. Maybe something tropical can sneak in near the coast underneath the HP to our north later August into September. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 The Euro is fairly problematic for this weekend. Setup on Friday into Saturday is similar to today with SLP tracking just offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 7, 2017 Author Share Posted August 7, 2017 Up to 0.47" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 15 hours ago, Cfa said: Kinda weird seeing everyone declare summer over while we're still near the peak, with temps running about average. That's true, but its more than just the avgs but how we got there. Too many "cool" breaks in the summer heat to really give that steady summer feel. Seems like we get some short burst of hot to very hot days to run up the numbers then spend most of the time chipping away at that departure, remaining just mild enough to end up around average. If we arrived at that same average with few fewer 90s but more uninterrupted run of sunny/mid 80s+ it would give a different impression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 The Euro is not pretty from Friday into early next week. This doesn't include today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 2 minutes ago, dWave said: That's true, but its more than just the avgs but how we got there. Too many "cool" breaks in the summer heat to really give that steady summer feel. Seems like we get some short burst of hot to very hot days to run up the numbers then spend most of the time chipping away at that departure, remaining just mild enough to end up around average. If we arrived at that same average with few fewer 90s but more uninterrupted run of sunny/mid 80s+ it would give a different impression. It doesn't help when it's 63 degrees at 3PM on August 7th. Summer may not be over statistically but we're definitely in the home stretch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 3 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The Euro is not pretty from Friday into early next week. This doesn't include today. The Euro hasn't gotten one of these events right in our area in the last month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted August 7, 2017 Share Posted August 7, 2017 5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: It doesn't help when it's 63 degrees at 3PM on August 7th. Summer may not be over statistically but we're definitely in the home stretch. and it could happen, a fluke chilly day, but multiple times in one summer, 60s in the afternoon..a summer buzz killer. The heat is in Europe with the heat wave named "Lucifer" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted August 7, 2017 Author Share Posted August 7, 2017 1 minute ago, Rjay said: The Euro hasn't gotten one of these events right in our area in the last month. Yeah as much as I hate to do it you certainly have to question what it is showing. Although it does show the heaviest rains once again over S NJ which is believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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