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Interior NW Burbs & Hudson Valley Second Half 2018


snywx

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With an east based modiki weak El Nino, if I am not mistaken to be projected, this winter upcoming should be interesting around these parts.  But I am ready for anything, really.  Just never know anymore despite historical analogues and autumn trends.  Rapid snow buildup in Canada is intriguing.  How it flipped from tropical warmth for such a long period to cool and crisp, almost like a switch. North American weather fluctuations never cease to fascinate, especially this time of year. 

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12 hours ago, Juliancolton said:

Looks like tomorrow is the last hurrah for the every-other-day rain cycle for a while. It'll be sorely missed I'm sure. 

 

I sure hope so. While it has been "fascinating" to watch the last 7 months it sure will be nice to wake up to blue skies and want to spend the day outside. Today is ultra gloomy :( 

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1 hour ago, gravitylover said:

I sure hope so. While it has been "fascinating" to watch the last 7 months it sure will be nice to wake up to blue skies and want to spend the day outside. Today is ultra gloomy :( 

Good waterfall day. Heading out to tour some falls in the berks as soon as I get done with the morning's email slog.

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35 minutes ago, IrishRob17 said:

Made it down to 33 this morning as the temp took a nose dive just before dawn, still no frost IMBY.  Could be one of those years where the first frost and freeze occur at the same time for me, like tomorrow morning. We shall see. 

Just checked my stats, my average First Frost date is 10/17 and the average First Freeze Date is 10/26 

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4 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

It’s still lame around here, no improvement this week.  I’m hoping that the green trees that are still left may put on a show soon but there’s a lot of leaves down already. Some of the best sugar maples around here are very dull this season. 

I'm not sure what's duller, the foliage or those of us who actively track foliage changes...

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2 hours ago, IrishRob17 said:

Made it down to 33 this morning as the temp took a nose dive just before dawn, still no frost IMBY.  Could be one of those years where the first frost and freeze occur at the same time for me, like tomorrow morning. We shall see. 

33° for me as well..

23 minutes ago, Juliancolton said:

I'm not sure what's duller, the foliage or those of us who actively track foliage changes...

Whats the deal with the pitiful foliage this year? Early heat/humidity maybe?

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I think it's the very wet late season and accompanying warm soil temps and the lack of cool nights to start the trees producing the sugars that create the vivid colors. I think it's a similar process to how Maples are better sap producers in the spring when it's warm days and cold nights. Lets see if the trees that are still summer green turn rapidly now, especially after the next two nights, and if they get vivid or just fade away. I'd say that it's well over half of the trees in the suburban neighborhoods by me are still summer/late summer green while ~35% turned and have dropped/are dropping their leaves.

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20 minutes ago, snywx said:

33° for me as well..

Whats the deal with the pitiful foliage this year? Early heat/humidity maybe?

IMO, the early heat has nothing to do with it, the endless dews up until last week is having a huge effect.  That combined with all of the precip over the past few months is no good for foliage.  You need drier conditions all around, especially later in the season leading up to October.  

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From what I've studied out of personal curiosity, there's evidence that temperature has almost no effect on the onset of chlorophyll degradation. Anthocyanin production is thought to increase with sunlight in the final couple weeks of the leaf abscission process, and so the cloudy first half of climo fall was presumably a major factor in the lack of red and deep orange colors. To get yellow and rust hues, you want carotenoids already present in the leaf to break down more slowly than the masking chlorophyll, but I believe that timeline can be skewed by excess moisture. It also doesn't help that we keep getting strong wind events and pelting rainstorms to mechanically knock off leaves before color can build to any sort of crescendo. The normally vivid sugar maples by my pond are bare on top and green on the bottom, which is basically the terrain in microcosm... I hiked the Escarpment Trail the other day and noticed that it was stick season toward the summit of KHP, while Kaaterskill Clove had barely seen any change at all.

 

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